TPM "Virginia is the pivotal state in this year’s election."

[flamingdem]

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/07/virginia_is_big_3.php

excerpt:
Toss in Michigan and he’s got it. So it’s not so much that Obama has to win Virginia. It’s more that it’s very hard for me to see how Obama loses if he does win Virginia.

Here’s my basic argument.

I’m pretty confident that Obama will win Michigan both because it’s been a blue state for 20 years and because of the Romney/auto bailout issue, although at the moment the PollTracker Average gives him a mere 1 point edge. The key to the last three presidential cycles is that you’ve got to win Ohio or Florida and probably both to win the presidency. In both 2000 and 2004 it all came down to Bush eking out victories in those two states. Both continue to look extremely tight this year — with Florida basically dead-even for months and Ohio only slightly leaning to Obama. But if Obama wins Virginia he can lose both Florida and Ohio and he’ll almost certainly still going to win.

Another way of putting it is that Virginia is one state where 2008 really seemed to change the map rather than just being another state — like Indiana, for instance — that just got swept up in the tide. Florida and to a lesser extent Ohio look like the same sandbox we remember from 2000, 2004 and 2008. But Virginia’s quite different. Or at least that’s what the Obama campaign are betting on. My sense is that the demography of the state really has passed a tipping point. And the economy in the state is relatively strong. So I think Obama still has a very solid shot. But for my money, Virginia really is the state to watch.

[elleng]

1. Lets help it along,

by escorting cantor out the door!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002973131

[DCBob]

2. There is a very plausible win scenario for Obama without VA.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/obama_vs_romney_create_your_own_electoral_college_map.html?map=HI_1,AK_5,FL_5,NH_1,MI_1,VT_1,ME_1,RI_1,NY_1,PA_1,NJ_1,DE_1,MD_1,VA_5,WV_5,OH_5,IN_5,IL_1,CT_1,WI_1,NC_5,DC_1,MA_1,TN_5,AR_5,MO_5,GA_5,SC_5,KY_5,AL_5,LA_5,MS_5,IA_1,MN_1,OK_5,TX_5,NM_1,KS_5,NE_5,SD_5,ND_5,WY_5,MT_5,CO_1,ID_5,UT_5,AZ_5,NV_1,OR_1,WA_1,CA_1

Funny VA, used to be considered a Red state... I guess thats progress!

[CobaltBlue]

4. Virginia: new bellwether state

Funny VA, used to be considered a Red state... I guess thats progress!

A change in the electorate erased the Republican advantage in Virginia. Which was wonderful, given the Commonwealth voted Republican in ten consecutive cycles, 1968 to 2004. Northern Virginia is where you could really tell. Counties in that area that turned blue in 2004 and 2008, the first since Lyndon Johnson won them in 1964.

Prior to 1960, every Democratic president carried Virginia. (It's the home state of many previous presidents.) John Kennedy (1960), Jimmy Carter (1976), and Bill Clinton (1992 and 1996) narrowly missed getting Va. to flip. Clinton's popular-vote margin was more than 5 points in his two elections; which means Va. wasn't far off with JFK and Carter (despite being red for Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford). Va. remained red by over four points for unseated George Bush and over one point for Bob Dole.

What helped was the changing electorate in Va. that pretty much picked up the slack for declining bellwethers (and they are no more) located immediately west: Kentucky and Tennessee. I think North Carolina may have joined Va. as well to supplant Ky. and Tenn. Partisanship identification in Ky. and Tenn. are now more than 10 points (and, with 2008, over 20 points) redder than the country. Ky. voted for the winners in all elections from 1912 to 2004 except 1920, 1952, and 1960. Tenn. voted for the winners in all, during that same period, but 1924 and 1960. But when George W. Bush won in 2004 Ky. by nearly 20 points and Tenn. around 15 points, as he won nationally by just R+2.46, that killed those two states' long-established bellwether status. So, Virginia having ranked as Barack Obama's best state at coming close to his popular-vote margin (he won over Va. by D+6.30 while having beat John McCain by D+7.26) tells me that Va. is likely going to end up in the column of the winner for 2012.

[CobaltBlue]

3. … D+1 in Michigan?

I’m pretty confident that Obama will win Michigan both because it’s been a blue state for 20 years and because of the Romney/auto bailout issue, although at the moment the PollTracker Average gives him a mere 1 point edge.

Except for 1976 (when native son Gerald Ford was the incumbent and Republican nominee) and 1984 and 1988 (when the state fooled many an expert into assuming, from that point forward, it's a "swing state&quot , Michigan has tilted Democratic in every election since at least 1960.

If Michigan is only 1 percentage point — for Team Blue and President Obama — then Team Red wins with Mitt Romney.

Popular Vote
1992: Bill Clinton (D+5.56) — pickup (R to D)
1996: Bill Clinton (D+8.52), re-elected
2000: Al Gore (D+0.52), did not win Electoral College (party pickup, D to R)
2004: George W. Bush (R+2.46), [re-]elected (but did not win popular vote in 2000)
2008: Barack Obama (D+7.26) — pickup (R to D)

Michigan
1992: Bill Clinton (D+7.39) — pickup (of the state, R to D)
1996: Clinton (D+13.21)
2000: Al Gore (D+5.14)
2004: John Kerry (D+3.42)
2008: Barack Obama (D+16.44)

Michigan, for its margin, in relation to the popular vote
1992: D+1.83
1996: D+4.69
2000: D+4.62
2004: D+5.88
2008: D+9.18


Since 1996, Michigan has been carried by an estimated 5 percentage points — and more — relative to how Democratic candidates performed nationally. So, if Mich. is only D+1, in this year's election, say hello to President Elect Mitt Romney. But if Barack Obama wins re-election, he won't get reduced down to just that one-percent Democratic hold of Mich.

[Marzupialis]

5. "the" pivotal state?

As if there weren't several statets that are close as hell. This is a useless article in my humble opinion.

[davidpdx]

10. That's true, about 8 that you could argue are close

Even if they lean one way or the other. I don't buy that Michigan is that close, that's where his argument is perhaps the weakest. The polls may show it close, but it won't be as close in the fall. Virginia is going to be important, but not crucial. I kind of wonder if we can pull of North Carolina again. It seems like Indiana might flipped red again. That would be 26, but still not enough of a dent for Romney even to come close. Given him Florida and Iowa that's another 35 and it still puts Obama at 297 (This is based on 270towin.com's prediction). Even flipping 4 states for a total of 61 EV and he still can't pull it off. Romney would literally have to flip 6 or more states.

[FSogol]

6. That's why Romney will pick VA Gov Bob McDonnell as his running mate.

[Hippo_Tron]

7. Governor vaginal probe has had quite a plummet in his popularity last I checked

[FSogol]

9. You think the Romney campaign makes good decisions?

[CobaltBlue]

8. McDonnell: no help to the GOP ticket

Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell won't be the v.p. nominee. He does nothing for the ticket. Since the 1980s, numerous vice-presidential selections did not bring along carriage of their home state: Geraldine Ferraro (1984, New York); Lloyd Bentsen (1988, Texas); Jack Kemp (1996, N.Y.); John Edwards (2004, North Carolina).

Selecting a running mate who doesn't move the base if of no help. And selecting one does move the base doesn't necessarily make for a game-winning move, but in some way it can help. For example, John McCain picking Sarah Palin may have been key to holding declining bellwether Missouri. That's because the base was more concentrated in the southeast parts that border Mo. with Arkansas.