My latest electoral college numbers

[center rising]

In my latest thinking for the electoral college, Barack Obama has made some gains over Mitt Romney, and I have only one state that I call a tossup. Here are my latest numbers.


Obama states; Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New York, Pennsylvania, Delaware, New Jersey, DC, Maryland, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, Washington, Oregon, California and Hawaii. 25 states, plus DC for 303 electoral votes

Romney states; Alaska, Idaho, Montana, Utah, Arizona, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Kentucky, Louisiana, South Carolina, North Carolina, West Virginia, Indiana. 24 states, 206 electoral votes

One tossup state; Florida. 29 electoral votes.

Agree/Disagree???

[yellowcanine]

1. I think North Carolina should be a tossup. It has been very close for a long time.

[Lex]

2. It went to Obama in 2008.

Not sure the fundies here are all that impressed with Mitt and they sure don't like that he's a Mormon.

[center rising]

3. NC was tough, but in the end,

Obama will have a tough time winning it. Polls are close, but I think it goes red.

[TheDebbieDee]

4. Missouri just might go Blue this year........

Obama lost Missouri by less than 4,000 votes to McCain. Four thousand votes can be found in just about any large, urban neighborhood in Missouri in which the residents are allowed to vote!

[freshwest]

5. Isn't the GOP close against the Democratic Senator there? I've seen discouraging reports of MO.

I hope you're right. I read that the GOP in PA and TX may not get away their schemes there. It seems too many states that went for Obama in 2008 have gone right wing fundie.

[TheDebbieDee]

11. The problem with the Democratic Senator here, McCaskill, is that she can't make up

her mind as to whether she is a Democrat or a repuke. She does nothing to excite progressive Democrats and she seems scared $hitless to say or do anything that will draw negative attention from Missouri conservatives.

The last 2 years or so she's only been good for making bi-weekly appearances on Mornin' Joe. I will be holding my nose when I vote for her in November......

Thank goodness Missouri has a Democratic Governor (Jay Nixon) that has vetoed many of the actions that would make us West Mississippi.......

[brooklynite]

23. maybe she doesn't excite progressive Democrats...

...because they're not in Missouri. This is and has been a centrist battleground state for years. Playing to the left makes activites feel good, but it doesn't help with the voters.

[TheDebbieDee]

27. Excuse me, but there are progressive Dems here in Missouri and we want to bring Missouri

into the 21st Century........hell, even into the 20th Century. We're frustrated as hell and we're growing impatient - at least, I am.

I feel that all of Missouri is being held back by conservatives in central and southern Missouri. I hate the way these people think but they ALWAYS shows up to vote!

[Robbins]

28. I agree

Progressive Dems here are mostly In St Louis and Kansas City.The governor Is our only check against a right wing lesislative.
after november the only democratcic congressmen will likely be Emmanuel Clever In Kansas City(he's my congressman) and Lacy Clay
In St Louis(Him and his father before him were my congressman when I lived In St Louis.Untill 2006 I lived most of my life In St
Louis)

[freshwest]

6. I sure hope you have that 303 count firm. Thanks for the information.

[center rising]

8. From all the polling I've seen

303 EV seems about right. There are bound to be some changes, but as of now, I put Obama with a solid lead.

[Chipper Chat]

7. The good news about your poll is that

Obama could lose Virginia, Ohio, and Colorado and still win. (If he gets Florida, that is).

[center rising]

9. Yeah, Obama definitely has some wiggle room here.

[demwing]

18. Obama could lose Colorado, Florida, Iowa, and Virginia and still win

on that map, with 275 ECV

[Proud Liberal Dem]

22. He could theoretically lose Virginia, Ohio AND Florida

and STILL win, albeit by a "too close for comfort" margin. 270towin.com is a really good site to play around with. The truth of the matter is that President Obama has many paths to 270. Romney has to rely on the wind REALLY being at his back in order to win in November. Good turnout by Dems on Election Day 2012 should be able to deliver a second term for President Obama. In my estimation, something catastrophic would have to happen to President Obama or Mitt would have to gain some serious "Mitt-mentum" to win in November. The bigger problem that I see is what kind of House and Senate we might end up with in November and whether or not President Obama and Democrats in Congress will spend more time playing offense or defense.

[SoutherDem]

10. Too soon to do serious calculations

I would wait for two weeks after both conventions. Then look at the numbers to see where Obama stands.

[Wounded Bear]

25. I think it is valuable to track trends...nt

[CobaltBlue]

12. Well…

I'd be willing to post an electoral map, but am not aware if I can. (Or how to do so.)

I look at polling numbers for the context. And I consider previous elections. Numerous factors.

[TexasTowelie]

13. Almost in complete agreement with the RealClearPolitics no-swing states Electoral College map.

On their map, Florida is awarded to Obama and the totals are 332 to 206.

[DCBob]

16. oops... just posted the same thing..

[ges6262fese]

14. excellent

[DCBob]

15. I think that is almost exactly the RCP no toss-up map

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

The only exception is they give FL to O.

[demwing]

17. Why only Florida?

Virginia and Iowa have very similar margins of support for Obama (all less than 1.5%). What tells you Florida is a toss up and not the other states?

[Daniel537]

19. That's pretty much how Nate Silver's forecast has things right now.

Florida is the only one of the battleground states that swings back and forth consistently on his map so i would say this is the most accurate projection of how things will end up, for now at least.

[mikekohr]

20. I've been calling 332-333 to 205-206 for about a year now.

We remain as divided a nation as ever, thanks to Faux Gnus and right-wing hate radio. Nothing much electorially has changed since 2008.
Florida and NC are truely swing states, but to get to 270, Robme has to take both of them, plus VA, OH, and one other big steal from the Democratic column. Possible? Yes. Likely? Not much.

[Suji to Seoul]

21. i believe indiana and missouri will flip. i believe the only big state Obama will not carry

is the insane asylum of Texas. i believe Florida will go blue again.

[stuckinodi]

26. No Way IN Goes for Obama n/t

[Jim Lane]

24. The Votemaster (electoral-vote.com) has Obama at 332

On his map, Obama's been at 303 for several days, with Florida going to Romney, but the latest poll is from SurveyUSA and has Obama ahead there, 48% to 43%. On that basis the electoral-vote.com map is now giving Florida's 29 votes to Obama.

Polls several months out are close to meaningless, but I guess I'm not the only DUer who's a junkie and can't help following them.

[Robbins]

29. My take

I think most states will stay where they were In 2008.The only ones I think could flip are

Indiana-It will defently go Romney however democrats have chance at a senate seat here
NC-This Is tossup.I would say It leans Romney but Obama still has chance here
Florida-with the voter purge we can't be sure how It will go.However Obama Is fighting and Survey USA's likely voter poll of Obama up by 5 Is good news
Missouri-there Is wild chance of a narrow Obama win as part of electoral landslide In part due to weaknes of Romney,and antimorman
sentiment In the state.Between a black man and a Morman some might stay home.

Let's remember Obama can win with just the kerry states+Gore states of Iowa and New Mexico+Nevada and Colorado.Winning Ohio
and Virginia ensures Romney's loss even with a win In Florida.And If he loses Florida with Ohio and Virginia bye bye Romney.