2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumRubio appears to be gearing up to be Romney's VP
If there were any doubts about this, Rubio's comments during the last couple of weeks should dispel them.
from Politico..
The junior Florida senator and VP short-list favorite of most of the GOP hopefuls not once but twice came to Romneys rescue from Gingrich.
When Gingrich launched a tactically clever, if weakly executed, line of attack comparing Romney to former Gov. Charlie Crist the ex-Republican who Florida conservatives loathe Rubio put out a statement saying, Mitt Romney is no Charlie Crist.
Romney campaigned for him early, he noted, declaring that the former Massachusetts governor is a conservative.
More significant was the protection Rubio offered when Gingrichs campaign aired an ad accusing Romney, of being anti-immigrant.
The language was inflammatory, said the Cuban-American Rubio. Gingrich yanked the ad within hours.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0112/72107.html#ixzz1kqehI3wY
More evidence..
MIAMI -- Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) hasn't endorsed a Republican candidate or said that he wants to be vice president, but that doesn't mean that GOP hopefuls don't want him to join them on the ticket.
Rubio gave something of an audition for the post of vice president on Friday during a speech at a Hispanic Leadership Network conference here in Miami, speaking ahead of Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney, both of whom name-checked him in a Thursday evening debate. In that speech, he attempted to soften the tone on immigration.
more: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/27/marco-rubio-immigration_n_1236610.html?ref=politics
more: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ediberto-roman/marco-rubio-immigration-speech_b_1237894.html
He also gave the Saturday GOP address.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/01/28/in-gop-address-rubio-rebuts-obamas-state-of-the-union/
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He scares me a bit and appears to be the perfect choice for Mitt Romney. Young, good looking, intelligent, Hispanic, teaparty fav. He could help bring the party back together after a disasterous primary.
His weaknesses are though he is very inexperienced and would look like an amateur next to Joe Biden.
davidpdx
(22,000 posts)And it will make it very difficult to win Florida. I know the Obama campaign has touted non-Florida paths to victory, but I'll be much happier if Florida is in play.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)Romney is the candidate not Rubio. Romney has a ton of issues and negatives that will be exposed more and more as the campaign progresses.
no_hypocrisy
(46,067 posts)and Romney does't?
DCBob
(24,689 posts)They are usually picked just prior to the convention.
BlueStater
(7,596 posts)Bring him on.
KharmaTrain
(31,706 posts)I would agree...in the tunnel vision bubble world of the rushpublicans Rubio seems like the link to help them win both Florida and the Hispanic vote...as broad brushes, especially when applied to minorities, is how these types roll.
A closer look is that Rubio is Cuban who are not shined upon by other Hispanic groups; especially Mexicans. While a Cuban can get asylum the moment they touch U.S. soil, Mexican are being persecuted...and predominately by rushpublicans. Cubans are viewed as privilidged and arrogant...the 1% of the Hispanic world...thus even with Rubio on the ticket, the coat tails to winning more than Little Havana are short.
One other thing to think about...if Mittens and Rubio are the ticket, that's a Mormon and Catholic...something the good 'ole boys may not like either...especially if a "real christian" runs third party. This could be a reverse Nader affect in Florida...sucking away enough votes in the panhandle.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)He might turn out to be dud like Palin... we hope.
flamingdem
(39,313 posts)Latinos have such low visibility I'm hoping Latino independents don't sway
KharmaTrain
(31,706 posts)I've been reading of strong efforts to organize Hispanic communities for the upcoming election. I heard from a friend whose done a lot of registering and organizing in Arizona who feels they could be the difference in swining it from red to blue...as well as having an impact in Nevada, Colorado and even Texas.
demgrrrll
(3,590 posts)The person who is on with Reverand Sharpton, I can't think of her name but the name of her organization is Voto Latino talks about similar issues and would seem to be in agreement with you.
flamingdem
(39,313 posts)The wicked witch of the west!
isn't admired by all latinos, its mainly those of Cuban decent. When Obama won FL in 08, it was the Puerto Rican vote, that helped propelled him to victory in FL. As long as he can hold on to the puerto rican vote and maybe some young cubans, he will do fine in FL. Futhermore, Biden would eat Rubio alive in a debate.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)It's going to be that much more difficult.
All we need is a high voter turnout. Higher than in 2008!
And, we need to start registration drives NOW in conjunction with making sure people have the proper ID's. We have to start now.
Malikshah
(4,818 posts)cretin has more skeletons buried in the swamps of Tallahassee than can be counted.
His own "biography" is besmirched.
His time in the FL legislature is rife with ethics abuses, misappropriated funds and the like.
BTW--the same holds for JEB. The only problem is the media is anything but diligent these days. One hopes that they actually do their work.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Why would anyone be scared by a VP candidate? I don't get it. VP candidates have historically brought nothing to the table. The last VP candidate I can think of who actually made an impact was maybe Lyndon Johnson in 1960 and that was a generation ago. Since, has there been one VP candidate you can point to that helped win an election for the Republican or Democrat?
Generally, there is a small boost after the VP is named. It doesn't last. People won't be voting for Rubio - they'll be voting for Romney. Banking on the VP pick to win you the election is a failed strategy. All you have to do is ask McCain, Kerry and Al Gore - three guys who made political picks and lost the race.
Remember, Edwards was the supposed up-and-comer in the Democratic Party this time eight years ago. He was young and charismatic who won power in a conservative state and how'd North Carolina vote? Well Kerry won nearly the exact same amount of votes Gore did four years prior.
No impact whatsoever. Floridians might like Rubio, but unless it's Rubio-Romney, it's not going to mean a lick.
Just my take, tho.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)However, if you remember Sarah Palin gave McCain a huge bounce after the convention. Of course that all change once people got to know her better. We will see how this plays out but I doubt Rubio will hurt Romney's odds of winning.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)A VP pick certainly can give a candidate a quick boost in the polls. It doesn't last, though because, in the end, the focus returns to the two main candidates. Even if Palin hadn't been as inept as she was out of the gate, I don't think she wins that election for McCain.
It's not a coincidence the last three presidential candidates who made strategic, political choices lost the overall election. Palin was solely picked to galvanize the Republican base that was lukewarm to McCain, Edwards was picked because he came from North Carolina and Lieberman was picked because he was Jewish.
You want to even go back further, look at Lloyd Bentsen in '88. He was picked because he came from Texas and was a moderate - so supposedly he would help balance out the ticket. Bentsen didn't win Texas and didn't help Dukakis at all. He delivered a knockout blow in a debate, embarrassed the inexperienced and often laughable Quayle and Dukakis-Bentsen still got their butts kicked in the general election.
And I think that election, maybe more than any other, furthers my point. You had extremely contrasting VP candidates: Bentsen who was tough, experienced and smart and Dan Quayle who was weak, inexperienced and dumber than a sack of potatoes (heh). If there were ever an election where the VP candidate would influence the outcome, you'd think it would be that one.
But nope because, in the end, it was about Dukakis and Bush - not Bentsen and Quayle.
Finally, there is Geraldine Ferraro. She, like Palin, was a strategic pick and, initially, like with Palin, Mondale saw a bump in the polls...but it didn't last.
Ferraro was infinitely smarter than Palin and still got her butt kicked, along with Mondale, by Reagan.
I think people worry too much about the VP candidates. I really don't think Rubio will decide anything in this election. There might be initial buzz, some solid poll numbers when the Republican Convention rolls around, but, in the end, when the last leg of the campaign starts, the focus will once again return to Obama-Romney - not their VP candidates.
Doc Holliday
(719 posts)You make it sound as if picking Palin, a virtual unknown, was an actual strategy on the part of the GOP, instead of a cynical and poorly thought-out attempt to get the disaffected Hillary voters.
Sarah might have brought in some votes from the KnowNothings and the Viagra demographic, but I think that saying she "galvanized the base" might be just a little too much turd polish.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)But that was their hope. They knew McCain had trouble with the base (as will Romney) and Palin, at least at the time, looked like the candidate needed to shore up those apathetic voters. It backfired, obviously, but that's the point - if you're making a pick to galvanize the base or to help lock down a region, it almost never works. It didn't work for Kerry in '04 and didn't work for McCain in '08.
Rubio will be better than Palin by default, but it's unlikely he'll bring anything new to the table for Romney. The media will try to convince us he does, but, in the end, it will continue to be a race between Obama-Romney.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)more invovled in politics and policy than traditional VPs.
Biden has brought the VP role back where it should be.
But Republicans seem to be attractive to the "Active VP" model.
I do think that Rubio would bring something to the ticket, namely Florida!
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)BlueStater
(7,596 posts)He's actually my senator and, last I heard, his approval ratings were only mediocre. Nothing to write home about.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)At least, that's what a PPP poll had his ratings last month.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2011/12/scott-hits-a-new-low.html
MADem
(135,425 posts)Even at that, it's said JFK's dad helped, too, but whatever.
I don't think JFK would have made it without LBJ and some sketchy vote counting all around.
Bolo Boffin
(23,796 posts)Romney's stump speech. I thought Rubio was keeping his wood dry for 2016, but who knows?
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Bolo Boffin
(23,796 posts)Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)bigdarryl
(13,190 posts)Number23
(24,544 posts)to Sarah Palin. Conservatives apparently don't care about things like education, character and experience when they're selecting their candidates.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)Last edited Mon Jan 30, 2012, 03:42 PM - Edit history (1)
in question IS a Republican.
And in fact, I can envision a scenario where Mitt claims to be the one with experience, which will nullify criticisms against Rubio.
In addition, Rubio can paint himself as an "outsider," since he's not been in politics for long.
The Romney/Rubio ticket terrifies me. I think Americans are duped by good looks and silly platitudes.
The Rubio pick could engage Hispanics--even non-Cuban Hispanics--just because there's a sense of pride.
It's the one ticket that I think has potential to give Obama-Biden a difficult time.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)...and not the presidential candidate himself.
You can't because it hasn't happened.
American voters have never voted for the VP. Ever. That's suddenly going to change this election? haha
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)is a futile exercise. There is a reason why running mates often excite the Corporate Media and the candidates. If it didn't matter who one chose, then none of us would care.
The bottom line is that they do matter, John McCain notwithstanding. McCain thought he could pull disaffected Hillary supporters by choosing Sarah Palin over more electable candidates. Again, if it didn't matter who the VP pick was, then we wouldn't care.
Don't be naive about this. It does matter. And yes, there was a former VP who became president in the last 40 years. His name is George H.W. Bush.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)But when it passes, and the campaign returns to the issues, it becomes irrelevant. It doesn't matter who you pick (well, obviously it does - I mean, if Romney picked a homeless person off the street there would be a problem). People are not going to suddenly vote for Romney because Rubio is on the ticket - just as voters didn't vote for Kerry because he picked Edwards.
What I'm saying is that the VP candidates bring almost nothing to the table and it's pointless to get worked up over something that will have minimal impact. Romney isn't going to win this thing on the coattails of his VP. It just doesn't work that way.
And your last point doesn't even fit into the context of this thread. I didn't say a VP can't be elected president (?), I only asked when, in the last 40 years, can you point to the VP CANDIDATE as the reason why the ticket won - and you can't!
Reagan didn't win in 1980 because of Bush. Obama didn't win '08 because of Biden.
VP candidates get a lot of play because it's a story, but when it dies down, and it will, voters won't care. It's why, in 1988, voters still voted for Bush over Dukakis, even though Lloyd Bentsen was far and away more superior than Dan Quayle.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)candidate "helped" a presidential candidate win.
What I stated was that it's not unimportant and it DOES matter who is chosen.
On the last point, I misread what you had written.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)It doesn't terrify me because I don't think it'll be that big of a deal. Rubio is not going to be the game changer Romney needs to win this thing.
That's all I'm saying - no need to be terrified over something that will have an impact (yes, I agree), but won't have a big enough impact to change the dynamics of this race. I'm far more worried about the state of the economy than I am who Romney picks as his VP - especially when Obama has a higher approval rating in Florida than Rubio.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)I hope you're right, or else I'll be getting drunk with you!
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)PARTYYYY!
Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)not that the interest is mutual. I hope they pick him, as all the imagined strengths are illusory and come from right wing misconceptions.
Beacool
(30,247 posts)As for experience, Obama didn't have much and there he is.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)for 11 years, and then the U.S. Senate for two. That's more experience than Rubio.
Leave it up to you to reopen to 2008 wounds. This discussion has nothing to do with the Obama-Hillary primaries.
You will never let it pass and that's sad. Makes you look desperate.
Beacool
(30,247 posts)State senator does not a presidential resume make.
I'm pointing out that Rubio's experience may not be extensive, but if it didn't affect Obama when he was running for president, it won't affect Rubio if he runs for VP.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)I think Obama has done an outstanding job. I know you don't agree, but we'll just have to agree to disagree.
Beacool
(30,247 posts)I'm an Independent.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)of the rules?
You're an Independent who will vote for Romney or some third party because there is no indication that you would dare sully yourself by supporting this president.
Beacool
(30,247 posts)I'm not the only Independent on this board. And when have I ever said that I would vote for a Republican?
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)feel about Obama, so I was just asking.
No worries. It's your business and your vote.
Obamacare
(277 posts)Well, that is a violation of the rules. This site is for supporting Obama's re-election. And to compare this nobody Rubio to Obama is a joke. Ask anyone in Fl and they'll tell you Rubio is a corrupt politician, he used a state GOP credit card for personal expenses, who does that? Anywho, Rubio would not galvanize the base in the least. I doubt picking Rubio would win Mittens FL, its a huge gamble, because it doesn't improve his standings in other battleground state besides maybe and thats a huge maybe, those with a significant latino population. Like I mentioned upthread, majority of latinos with the exception of older Cubans aren't impressed with Rubio. Outside the Cuban community, he is a non-factor and non-cuban latinos, especially Mexicans could careless. And most importantly, latinos are not a monolithic group. Its asinine to think just because Mittens would choose Rubio latinos would line up like lap dogs to vote for Mittens. Just as blacks didn't line up to vote for Herman Cain, Al Sharpton or Jessie Jackson, it just doesn't work that way.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)weird.
Beacool
(30,247 posts)Switched the summer of 2008.
treestar
(82,383 posts)CfBlake2
(4 posts)Yeah and here we are reaping the benefits...NOT!
You said: "His weaknesses are though he is very inexperienced and would look like an amateur next to Joe Biden".
I'd take an intelligent amateur over a gaff prone old hack any day! Biden is just hideous and has to be kept in a closet or something so he doesn't say the wrong thing. I also believe Rubio has never plagiarized material like Biden
BlueStater
(7,596 posts)Enjoy your short time here, Puke.
Response to BlueStater (Reply #41)
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