Latest poll from PPP: Romney 40% Gingrich 32%

[DCBob]

PPP finds the same thing in its newest Florida poll that all surveys of the state have found in the last few days: strong movement away from Newt Gingrich and toward Mitt Romney. Romney now leads with 40% to 32% for Gingrich, 15% for Rick Santorum, and 9% for Ron Paul. Romney has gained 7 points and Gingrich has dropped by 6 since our last poll, which was conducted Sunday and Monday.

It's clear that the negative attacks on Gingrich have been the major difference maker over the last week. His net favorability has declined 13 points from +23 (57/34) to only +10 (50/40) in just five days. Romney has pretty much stayed in place. At the beginning of the week he was at +31 (61/30) and now he's at +33 (64/31).

Santorum is actually the most well liked candidate among Florida voters with 65% seeing him favorably to 24% with a negative opinion. In Iowa Santorum's persistently high favorability ratings were a precursor to his late surge. But as popular as he is, he's only gone from 13% to 15% support in the last week. It seems unlikely that he'll be able to break into the top two.

The backbone of Romney's support in Florida is senior citizens. He's getting 50% of their voters with Gingrich at only 28%. Romney also appears to have a pretty good sized lead in the bank. Among those who have already voted he's at 45% to 35% for Gingrich.

more: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/01/romney-up-in-florida.html

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I think this is going to be the turning point in the campaign. Romney likely gains enough momentum from a big Florida win to take enough of the rest of the states win the nomination. However, the remaing factor is what happens if/when Santorum drops out. Many could jump to Gingrich but I suspect most wont. Momentum and inevitability factors will kick in and also I suspect many Santorum supporters just cant stand Gingrich.

Gringrich had a big bump from SC but it didnt last as many predicted. His repeated use of the same sound bite zingers fell flat in FL. Gingrinch might have been the easier to candidate to beat in the general but there is some pleasure in seeing this loud mouth asshole go down to defeat.

[Hatchling]

1. Do you think Newt's "moonbase" had anything to do with it?

I thought that came in out of the blue and it doesn't seem to me to be something teapartier's would care about. That they might think it too much of a liberal or "woo" kind of idea.

Its the kind of proposal I think young, idealist liberals would get behind, certainly not fiscal conservatives.

[DCBob]

2. I think that was part of it. Although it might a good idea in a normal election year...

it falls very flat now. It sounds like more big government to the Republicans.

[Drunken Irishman]

5. Gingrich needed the FL primary to be the Tuesday AFTER SC...

But it wasn't. His poll numbers started slipping before his remarks on moon bases. It didn't help, obviously, but he was already slipping before that point. In fact, I think he started slipping really the second the new week started and it's almost entirely directed at all the anxiety associated with him winning the nomination. Basically, when Floridians realized they could really push him toward winning the nomination, they got cold feet.

That's why I say Gingrich needed for this primary to be last Tuesday because there wouldn't have been as much time for doubt to settle in. It's kind of like eloping instead of planning your wedding - you just dive right in...no time to really think about it.

But once they were forced to think about it, voters started having second thoughts. Add his moon comment and his poor performance in the lone debate and his fate was sealed.

[AlinPA]

3. Santorum's votes would go to the non-Mormon Gingrich. His crazy followers see Mormonism

as a cult.

[DCBob]

4. If you look at the crosstabs page 5, most of Santorum voters would go to Romney

Second choice for Santorum's voters (percent of his 15%).

Romney: 37%
Gingrich: 25%
Paul: 23%
Someone else/Not sure: 9%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FL_128.pdf

If thats true nationwide then Romney is home free.