PPP FL poll suggests more of Santorums votes would go to Romney than to Gingrich if he dropped out.

[DCBob]

Second choice for Santorum's voters (percent of his 15%).

Romney: 37%
Gingrich: 25%
Paul: 23%
Someone else/Not sure: 9%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FL_128.pdf (crosstabs page 5)

If thats true nationwide then Romney is home free.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

1. If Santorum dropped out, there would be as much of a "let's wrap this thing up" effect

as there would be a "let's flee to Newt as our last wingnut anti-Romney stalwart" effect.

[DCBob]

2. There are many who think if there was just one anti-Romney conservative candidate..

then that candidate could beat Romney. This poll indicates otherwise if the candidate is Gingrich.

[MjolnirTime]

3. Sure they would, DCBob. Sure they would. Let just see what happens.

[DCBob]

5. You again..

these numbers have you troubled for some reason??

[MjolnirTime]

7. Latest PPP poll has Romney's lead shrinking. Uh oh!

[dsc]

4. that makes some amount of sense

since presumdely a number of Santorum's voters are appalled by Gingrich's personal life.

[DCBob]

6. Yes, I assume thats the reason.. some conservatives just cant stand Gingrich.

even if he is last "conservative" candidate standing.

[AtomicKitten]

8. Paul seems to have picked up quite a bit of support in the last few days.

[denem]

9. (dupe)

n/t

[denem]

10. Bob, to reprise an earlier argument, that was a sample of 58 Santorum voters.

The overall sample size was 387.
15% identified as Santorum voters.
15% of 387 is 58.

[DCBob]

11. The latest PPP had similar results..

Second choice for Santorum's voters (percent of his 15%).
Jan 28-30

Romney: 33%
Gingrich: 25%
Paul: 25%
Someone else/Not sure: 7%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FL_130.pdf (crosstabs page 5)

I think these are reliable numbers at least for Florida.

[denem]

13. To be honest, I have no idea where Santorum voters would go.

Santorum voters are so far out of my orbit, they might as well be asteroids. Paul and Santorum are way apart on the issues, and personality. I just don't get it. But these voters are not the brightest of buttons anyway.

I like to scrutinize the evidence. So yes, putting all the PPP polls together firms up the numbers quite a bit. Thanks.

[DCBob]

14. Thats the truth. Conservatives are a different animal. Who knows how these people think.

But the conventional wisdom that they would automatically go to Newt if Santorum dropped seems to be flawed thinking.

[HopeHoops]

12. I don't know. Romney's an asshole, but Newt just seems a bit more "frothy".