New poll gives HRC lead in Iowa

[WI_DEM]

for what it's worth...

Gravis Marketing survey in Iowa finds Donald Trump leading the GOP field with 19%, followed by Ben Carson at 14%, Ted Cruz at 11%, Carly Fiorina at 10%, Marco Rubio at 9% and Jeb Bush at 7%.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads with 40%, followed by Bernie Sanders at 31% and Joe Biden at 12%.


http://politicalwire.com/2015/10/02/trump-and-clinton-lead-in-iowa/

Here's some more statistics about this poll:

http://www.oann.com/polliowa/

[liberal N proud]

1. This is a new poll and it doen't mean anything.

[riversedge]

2. HRC 46% Sanders 25% Ipsos/Reuters 2016 National Democratic Primary Oct2

Madam President and 10 others follow
Mahlers5th ?@CarolynRodham 1h1 hour ago

Ipsos/Reuters 2016 National Democratic Primary (9/26-9/30)

HRC 46%
Sanders 25%

Hill up 6%, Sanders down 5% since Ipsos poll 9/19-9/23

[Melissa G]

3. I was remembering there were many problems with Gravis in previous elections

So I did a quick google and this popped up. I remember more but do not have time for a full search.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2014/05/21/the_worst_poll_in_america.html


Update for the DU debunking that I was remembering..

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/07/1141340/-Gravis-Marketing-Exposed-As-A-Fraud-via-Democratic-Underground#

[slipslidingaway]

8. Thank you and here are the DU threads from grantcart ...

DU Exclusive: Gravis Marketing exposed as a fraud Part I

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021489250


Gravis Marketing Exposed II. The Evisceration of Douglas Kaplan

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=1539890

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. I agree. Gravis has a dubious reputation. Let's rely on a Democratic polling firm-PPP

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is in pretty good shape. She leads with 43% to 22% for Bernie Sanders, 17% for Joe Biden, 3% for Martin O'Malley and Jim Webb, and 2% for Lincoln Chafee. Among Biden's voters 43% say Clinton would be their second choice to only 15% for Sanders. Reallocate them to their second choice and Clinton would lead Sanders 50/25, almost identical to the 52/25 lead we found for her last month when we didn't include Biden.




http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/iowa/

[kenn3d]

4. I think you're right to say "FWIW"

Thanks WI_DEM,

I think you're right to say "FWIW", this one might be a bit marginal. But it's nice to have something new in the way of an IA poll.

The polls were conducted using automated telephone calls (IVR technology) and weighted separately for each population in the question presented. The poll was conducted for One America News Network....328 Democratic Caucus participants...

Comparing it to the previous Gravis Marketing Iowa Caucus Poll does seem to indicate a familiar trend however:
Last Gravis IA Poll 9/1 (30days ago):
Hillary Clinton 45%, Bernie Sanders 17% and Joe Biden 13%.

IOW, in the last month:
Clinton drops -5%
Sanders gains +14%
Biden more or less unchanged at -1%

[Fearless]

5. When isolating for the reliability of the polling method, this is would be the take away information

From the poll.

[demwing]

15. How about: "Hillary slides in Iowa poll" of "Sanders surges in Iowa!"

A single poll is just a snap shot, but the trend is your friend.

[Robbins]

6. As i said in Bernie sanders group

This is republican pollster but even gravis has seen movement for bernie since last gravis iowa poll.Bernie was In the teens in august and now at 31%

[Gothmog]

7. Cool polling

[ram2008]

9. HRC needs Iowa

If she doesn't win it she's in big, big trouble.

I think Bernie will win there just as Obama did in 08.

[leftofcool]

10. You do understand that most states are not winner take all.

Hillary can pull half the delegates in NH, half in Iowa and all of South Carolina and the primary is over.

[ram2008]

12. Momentum is a big thing

If Hillary loses both states she'll lose ground nationally and the party will be in a panic. It won't be over because every loss she has would chip away at her support. A loss in Iowa and New Hampshire would be 1 month of negative press of Clintons failing campaign "losing to a socialist" and a month of positive press for Bernie.

[Baltimore18]

11. I'll be surprised if Hillary wins Iowa.

Last time, she did not do well in the caucus states.

But I don't agree she'll be in big, big trouble.

[DCBob]

13. Actually Bernie is in "big big trouble" if he doesn't win Iowa.

Any chance he has a winning this thing hinges on early wins in Iowa and NH to get some momentum because SC and forward are going to be very very tough for Mr Sanders.

[BooScout]

14. Thanks for this!