Flaws in Polling Data Exposed as U.S. Campaign Season Heats Up

[still_one]

Polls for the 2016 U.S. presidential race have been defying all expectations: Donald Trump as the persistent Republican frontrunner even as he insults large swaths of the country and brushes off policy questions; Hillary Clinton haunted by an email controversy Democrats shrug off while a Vermont socialist keeps gaining on her.
Are the polls correct? While that is hardly a new question, doubts are intensifying after a series of high-profile misfires around the world in the past year, notably in Greece, Israel and the UK. As politics and business lean increasingly on surveys and data, technological and social shifts are combining to challenge polls’ reliability in an entirely new way. Polling professionals have no solution; investors are wary.
"There isn’t a pollster out there who thinks about this seriously who isn’t a little bit uneasy," said Kirby Goidel, editor of the book "Political Polling in the Digital Age." Interviews with more than a dozen pollsters in the U.S. and around the world revealed similar anxiety.
Brad Schruder, a director of foreign exchange at Bank of Montreal, said what many in the investment world have been thinking: "It makes you wonder, how much weight should we attach to these polls?"

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-09-29/flaws-in-polling-data-exposed-as-u-s-campaign-season-heats-up

[leftofcool]

1. Just announced on MSNBC! Hillary surging in the polls!

[still_one]

2. so I take it you feel the article is bogus? and if so, comment on the reasoning rather than

A Snark comment?

[leftofcool]

3. Not snark. It really was just announced.

[sabrina 1]

7. Which only proves the point of the article. The Corp Media using faulty poll data already admitted

by the pollsters themselves. We know this because they are still operating the old way, eg contacting people with landlines mostly, who has a landline anymore?

[still_one]

10. That is the thing that struck me also. The demographic I think is really different between cell

phone users, and landline users.

The other one, at least for me, and I suspect others, with caller ID, if I don't recognize the caller, I let it go to voice mail. I also am on the do not call list, so I don't know if that factors in or not either

[AgingAmerican]

8. She just came off a horrible weekend of polling

nt

[still_one]

9. sorry, I misinterpreted. I think the question in my OP is a worthwhile analysis though.

This same question was posted on DU a few days ago, and received some input. I thought I would repost it again to see if there would be more thoughts on this.

Thanks

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=7228870

[leftofcool]

14. Yes, it is worth some analysis and I read the article.

I am not sure if polls are ever been reliable. What ever did we do before the internet? Polls were conducted by land lines and sometimes published in newspapers but more often than not, even those published were based on speculation and gossip in the barber shops.

[still_one]

17. I used to think they were pretty accurate. Not so sure now.

[bbgrunt]

4. I refuse to answer polls. They are used

too much to shape rather than reflect opinion. In my mind it is a good thing that they may be losing their validity. Maybe instead of being obsessed with horseraces we could actually investigate policy issues.

[still_one]

11. I tend to feel the way you do. In addition, with caller ID I will not answer any call from someone

that does not identify themselves

[leftofcool]

15. No kidding! No 800 numbers ever!

[still_one]

16. Do I have a deal for you......

[xynthee]

5. This is very worrisome!

LOTS of problems with the way polls are conducted these days. Eventually, they'll be so far off from the election results we'll just stop using them and we'll never really know if election results are accurate.

[still_one]

12. They need to adapt. For example if more folks are using cell phones now, the sampling should

reflect that I would think. Also, if a caller is not identified with caller ID, I will not pick up. I don't know if the major pollsters identify themselves on caller ID, but if they don't, I could see them eliminating a certain group.

Another problem I have is with the thing they are doing with Biden. Including him in the polls, even though he isn't running. As I have said before, that is almost like a push poll. If this was three or more months ago, I could understand it, but at this late stage, as I have said before, it almost represents a "push poll".

[restorefreedom]

6. only one poll matters

election day.

the others are drummed up to feed various agendas, sell papers, or get viewers.

trumps high poll numbers is a gift to the media. nuff said

[still_one]

13. Of course, which is why people should vote regardless of what the polls say. If for nothing else,

the other issues on the ballot

[restorefreedom]

18. not to mention all the races

at all levels. people are so focused on the presidency, but there are so many races at every level that going to be critically important to our future. And some people might even argue that because of the constraints on the presidency, some of those other races might end up having even more important ramifications then the outcome of the presidential race.

I know I'll be studying my local stuff very closely.

[still_one]

19. of course. It is actually quite complicated, and requires people's careful consideration

[restorefreedom]

20. i hope a lot of people are willing to study the issues

we don't need too many low information voters this election. It's just too important.