Latest Quinnipac Swing State Primary Polls. Clinton in lead, Biden overtakes Sanders

[Godhumor]

Florida:
C - 43 S - 19 B - 19
C +24

Ohio:
C - 40 S - 19 B - 21
C +19

Pennsylvania:
C - 36 S - 19 B - 25
C +11


Biden is now running ahead or tied with Sanders in all three states. It is a bit unusual to see a candidate poll exactly the same level of support in three states, statistically (Sanders at 19 in all three), so I hope it is a rounding thing and not due to an overly aggressive weighting mechanism the pollster is using.


Quinnipac also did GE match ups with all front runner candidates, including Biden. However, it is worth noting Quinnipac had consistently had Republicans outperforming expectations on a state by state basis since the 2016 campaign season started. As of now, they still have the most widely questioned voter screen and population parameters of any major polling company for the 2016 election.

Polls from here:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

[Godhumor]

2. Bumpity bump bump n/t

[leftofcool]

3. Kicking!

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

4. Looks like a good opportunity for Biden to jump in and split the Decaf vote.

[DCBob]

5. Biden has busted the Bern.

[DCBob]

6. Notice without Biden Hillary at least doubles Bernie in every state.

WITHOUT BIDEN...

            FL OH PA
Clinton   54 52 51
Sanders 23 26 25

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2287

Bernie has "berned" out.

[lunamagica]

7. K&R. Go Hillary!

[kenn3d]

8. Thanks Godhumor

First I want to moderate your OP title just a tad, with the following from the first paragraph in the Quinnipiac Poll pdf:

"Secretary of State Hillary Clinton holds her leads but loses ground among Democrats in all three states, but Vice President Joseph Biden and Dr. Ben Carson are the best general election candidates in these key swing states, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today. "
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ps/ps10072015_S73fgbv.pdf

Otherwise, I pretty much agree with your take on this poll, and appreciate your comments.

I don't believe Sanders has held rallies or organized ground campaigns in any of these states yet, and Biden is surely both better known and more visible on MSM (even if he's not running). Biden's numbers are still surprising to me though, and make me wonder if they might represent a "not Hillary" vote? I must think those pts mostly go back to Clinton when he formally bows out, which should take her numbers back into the 50s in these races. I've also heard/read some doubts about Quinnipiac polling generally btw, but both the major compositors do include their data.

RCP has only a very few recent data points on Florida so far and apparently no chartable dataset at all for Ohio and PA. I'm currently watching the charts in IA, NH, SC, and FL, but I don't find any other states with sufficient polling yet. Fwiw (probably nothing), the spread in the RCP Florida race (between Clinton and Sanders) decreased by 2% with the Quinnipiac data just released.

I guess there's still a lot of both fun and folly involved in trying to make sense of it all this early.

Peace

ps: thanks also for your forthright and consistent position and postings regarding the Ipsos/Reuters "rolly-polling"... I can't make sense of it but I'm convinced that you're correct, and I'm ignoring that one now altogether. I'd still love to read your any insights on the RCP compositing methods, and/or their criterion for including/excluding various poll data.

[ram2008]

9. Hillary is getting crushed in the GE numbers

Not too good.

[Kornelio]

10. That's false

Which is why you didn't provide numbers backing up your claim.

She's not "getting crushed" in the GE numbers.

[oasis]

11. Hours later, the crickets have multiplied. (eom)

[ram2008]

12. Sorry I don't stay on these forums all day

She's losing Ohio and Pennsylvania, two Democratic states by 2-9 points to Rubio, Carson, Bush and Fiorina, and hanging on to a slim lead against Trump. Those are terrible numbers.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

[oasis]

13. The use of the word "crushed" is a bit much.

Thanks for providing the link.

[ram2008]

14. Perhaps

Carson seems to be 'crushing' her although I really don't expect him to be the nominee. I believe it will be between Trump and the Anti-trump for the nomination. The Anti-trump will probably be Rubio who will be the nominee eventually. Rubio is beating her in all 3 of those states so the numbers are still pretty bad.

[Godhumor]

16. As mentioned in the OP, Quinnipac has a very Republican centric population parameter this year

Every single swing states poll they have taken this year has both Clinton and Sanders losing virtually every match up. They have come under a lot of scrutiny due to the fact that their numbers eerily mirror the 2014 mid-term Republican Tsunami as opposed to the increase in Democratic turnout that happens in GE years.

If Quinnipac is to be believed Sanders and Clinton would both lose pretty much every purple state in the country. No other poll comes close to the results Quinnipac has shown on a state by state basis.

[Kornelio]

17. 1) Why didn't you mention Florida? 2) is a 2% deficit being "crushed"?

3)Why didn't you say that Sanders is ALSO losing to the same candidates Clinton trails in OH and PA?
Why didn't you say Sanders is getting "crushed"?

[workinclasszero]

15. Wow Hillary in the lead like always and

Joe is now number 2?

GO DEMOCRATS!!!!