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Presidential Poll Dancing: Why all the polls are wrong.
---SNIP---
Back in October, Gallup stunned the political-industrial complex by announcing it would not conduct any voter polling during the primary campaigns, and maybe not during the general election. Or maybe ever, if they cannot figure out why they have gotten so bad at doing what they have always done best. In 2012, Gallup’s final polls had Romney winning the presidency in a squeaker; Obama won going away. In 2010, Gallup had the Republicans sweeping Congress much more decisively than they did. And that’s the recent record of the best of the pollsters; the rest of the crowd has been even worse.
The fact is, political polling is no longer reliable.
To provide a useful picture of voter attitudes (which can change hours later), a poll must engage a large enough sample (about 1,000), must select them randomly (within universes, of, say, registered voters), and just be careful not to skew the answers with loaded questions (Republican candidates poll better when Republicans ask the questions, and vice versa).
What has crippled polling more than any other factor is the death of the land-line telephone. Once upon a time, every adult had one, its number told you where it was, and you could look it up in a public directory. Now, fewer than half of adults have one (or use it as their primary telephone). There are now more mobile phones in use in America than there are human beings; 60% of people under 45 have only a cell phone.
---SNIP---
Back in October, Gallup stunned the political-industrial complex by announcing it would not conduct any voter polling during the primary campaigns, and maybe not during the general election. Or maybe ever, if they cannot figure out why they have gotten so bad at doing what they have always done best. In 2012, Gallup’s final polls had Romney winning the presidency in a squeaker; Obama won going away. In 2010, Gallup had the Republicans sweeping Congress much more decisively than they did. And that’s the recent record of the best of the pollsters; the rest of the crowd has been even worse.
The fact is, political polling is no longer reliable.
To provide a useful picture of voter attitudes (which can change hours later), a poll must engage a large enough sample (about 1,000), must select them randomly (within universes, of, say, registered voters), and just be careful not to skew the answers with loaded questions (Republican candidates poll better when Republicans ask the questions, and vice versa).
What has crippled polling more than any other factor is the death of the land-line telephone. Once upon a time, every adult had one, its number told you where it was, and you could look it up in a public directory. Now, fewer than half of adults have one (or use it as their primary telephone). There are now more mobile phones in use in America than there are human beings; 60% of people under 45 have only a cell phone.
---SNIP---
More at Daily Impact.com
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Response to Binkie The Clown (Original post)
