So, what's Joe Biden doing tonight?
My guess is that he'll be sitting in a comfy chair and watching the debates on a nice big HD TV. I'm not sure what his beverage of choice is, but a beer and some popcorn seem like appropriate choices.
What's he looking for? He'll be watching to see whether Hillary Clinton does a solid job or blows it spectacularly.
See, he has a decision to make, and he has to make it real soon now. His poll numbers, despite not being a candidate, are on par with Bernie Sanders, but Clinton is still a solid leader at this stage, nationally. He knows that if he runs, he's going to have to work his ass off to change those numbers and edge Clinton out of the lead or at least tie with her.
Tonight's debate will give him a clue as to whether all that work is really worth the stress. If she performs well and holds her own, while Sanders fails to make a strong showing that builds on his current numbers and expands his polling base, then there's not really any point in his running.
He understands that if he announces that he's not running, most of the poll results he was getting will go to Hillary, since they're pretty close in positions across the board. O'Malley will probably get a modest boost, too, from poll participants who just don't like Clinton but don't see Sanders as a winning bet.
If Clinton gets his current poll numbers, or most of them, she'll suddenly get a major boost in momentum, likely enough to carry her through Super Tuesday with enough delegates to make it virtually impossible for Sanders to catch up.
On the other hand, if Hillary somehow barfs publicly on the podium or goes speechless at some point in the debate, the picture changes. Given her experience, though, that's probably an unlikely thing to happen. If it does, though, he might decide to toss his hat into the ring and give it a shot.
Here's what Biden knows: If he opts out of the race, Hillary gets a huge boost. If he joins the race because Clinton blows the debate somehow, he'll probably pick up enough numbers to go head-to-head with her in the early primaries. The race could conceivable become a three-way thing, with no clear victor, very quickly.
Here's what Biden has to ask himself: In a three-way race, does he get the nomination? Chances are he doesn't, and would end up working his ass off campaigning, only to fail to get enough delegates by Super Tuesday to warrant continuing. If he dropped out then, well, Clinton would still pick up most of his support, since she and Biden are pretty much two peas in a pod politically, and she'd still end up with the nomination. Sanders really isn't a consideration, since he's a non-GMO soybean on some other farm somewhere in Kansas.
So, after the popcorn is finished and another beer doesn't seem like such a great idea, what does Biden do? I think that Hillary doesn't blow it in the debate and comes across solidly to most Democrats. I think Biden decides, after chatting with his wife, that retirement sounds like a pretty good deal, after all. There's some joy in being an elder statesman coming out of the Vice-Presidency. I think he announces that he's decided not to run, after all, and will support Hillary. More time with the family, and that sort of thing, starting in January, 2017.
Will I be right? Or will this just be an idle exercise in political prediction? We'll see.
Right now, I've got to run to the store and pick up my microwave popcorn and a sixer of Surly Furious beer. There's a debate tonight, you know.
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