2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum538: Joe Biden Made The Right Call
1. Its late
really late
2. Biden would have had to run as an outsider
3. Biden is trapped ideologically
4. Bidens polling is bad where it matters
5. Bidens polling is good where it doesnt matter
tl;dr
Few presidential primary candidates have entered the race as late as Biden would have. Its possible that Biden, as vice president, might have been able to overcome the pitfalls of past late entries. On the other hand, everything we do know suggests Biden would have had a short, hard road. Biden made the right move.
Go to 538 to read the full analysis: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/joe-biden-will-not-run-for-president
BlueCaliDem
(15,438 posts)BeyondGeography
(39,351 posts)The wild card here was the email issue plus two months of flat-footed campaigning by her. Once she stabilized things and her numbers went back up all of a sudden the window issue became SUPER-HUGE.
sufrommich
(22,871 posts)during elections.
randome
(34,845 posts)Sorry, just trying to apply the earlier Elizabeth-Warren-is-running logic to Joe. Doesn't really work, though, does it?
Ah, well. Joe, you did good. As Josey Wales said, "I got no complaints."
[hr][font color="blue"][center]All things in moderation, including moderation.[/center][/font][hr]