Clinton Consolidates Support Among Democrats
With Mr. Biden out, Mrs. Clinton is positioned to consolidate a key combination of elite support and moderate voters. The evidence of Mrs. Clinton’s gains could start to trickle in almost immediately, since she was the second choice of nearly all of Mr. Biden’s voters in public opinion polls over the last month.
A united coalition of moderate, nonwhite and older voters represents a clear majority of the Democratic primary electorate. Mrs. Clinton took a commanding lead of 57 percent to 31 percent over Mr. Sanders in an average of seven September surveys that removed Mr. Biden from the equation. Similarly, an Upshot model from earlier this year suggested that Mrs. Clinton would have defeated Mr. Obama, 62 to 38 percent, in 2008 if black voters had voted like demographically similar nonblack voters (like Hispanic voters).
Mr. Sanders can still claim the support of one of the party’s largest and most influential wings: the party’s predominantly Northern, white progressive base. That will be enough to compete in the key early contests of New Hampshire and Iowa and in some other states, but not in more diverse or conservative states like South Carolina. A recent CNN poll there showed Mrs. Clinton leading by a 70-to-20 margin if Mr. Biden stayed out of the race.
Mrs. Clinton’s strength in the polls is underpinned by just about all of the factors that predict primary strength. Her policy views are right in the middle of the Democratic Party, denying Mr. Sanders much room to challenge her on strictly ideological grounds. Her support from party elites has bestowed substantial financial, organizational and public resources that will give her the ability to remain competitive on the air and on the ground.
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