PPP: Hillary +10 in NH over Bernie

[JaneyVee]

45-35 without Biden: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/10/clinton-reclaims-nh-lead-trump-still-up-big.html

And North Carolina updated 1 hour ago:

Hillary right around 70% on the first night of our North Carolina poll. Was at 55% on our last Biden-less poll.

[sufrommich]

1. Wow,both good. North Carolina's numbers

are amazing.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Kudos

[riversedge]

3. such good days for her:-)

[ucrdem]

4. uh-oh

After the next commercial break there will be one less Jeopardy finalist ...

[riversedge]

5. great news for NC.....

this is last tweet I could find from PPP about NC: (same as your op note)


PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls 2h2 hours ago

Hillary right around 70% on the first night of our North Carolina poll. Was at 55% on our last Biden-less poll

[retrowire]

9. when is Hillary going to host a rally here

that gains over 9000 on attendance?

... never

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. You can have the big rallies...I'll take the votes and the delegates...

That how we elect our nominees.

[retrowire]

13. I'm sure those votes will come too. :)

delegates however... that IS up in the air. I'll give you that.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. Are you sure the votes are coming?

With all due respect I see scant evidence of this.

[retrowire]

22. sarcasm is hard to detect online

I was implying that "oh I'm sure Hillary will get those votes" but not meaning that.

then I was saying I do believe she has an advantage with delegates.

[brooklynite]

50. Maybe it's better to meet with small groups where you can actually have a conversation?

I love a good campaign rally, but honestly, most people there have made of their minds or are just there for the show.

[Fred Sanders]

6. Interesting fact about the NH Democratic Party primary:

Independents are a big part of the puzzle keeping New Hampshire competitive at all. They account for about a third of the Democratic primary electorate, and Sanders has a 40/32 advantage over Clinton with them. Among actual Democrats Clinton leads Sanders by 18 points at 47/29, pretty similar to the national picture- it's really the unusual representation of non-Democrats in the Democratic primary in the state that has the race there looking competitive.

[DCBob]

7. PPP NH: Clinton up 6 and Sanders down 9 points since previous poll.

"Since PPP last polled New Hampshire in August Clinton's gone up 6 points from her then 35% standing, while Sanders has dropped 9 points from his then 42% standing."

This is the state the Bernie must win to have any chance at all of winning this thing. Dropping 9 points is huge and suggests his peak has passed.

[karynnj]

27. It might suggest that the combined effect of Biden dropping out and HRC's competent

performance at the hearing moved most of the Biden people and many undecided in her direction. Clearly there is a strong movement towards HRC, long the national front runner anyway. Anyone simply wanting to be with the "winner" would also have moved to HRC.

It is also possible that the debates showed a less nimble Bernie Sanders than some of his supporters might have hoped for. A comment I heard from someone who has known Bernie for decades and is a friend was that he (the person speaking) had turned off the debate after the question on Democratic socialism -- he was really disappointed that Sanders spoke of Denmark -- rather than FDR and the new deal. This MIGHT be a real lost opportunity because it was likely the biggest forum he is likely to have to point out that MANY FDR programs - some in existence today - and others that built infrastructure still important today were programs correctly called socialist at the time. In addition, to not claiming the AMERICAN programs that were democratic socialism, both O'Malley and HRC have moved in that direction and either of them could make a strong call for programs that are in line with that American, Democratic tradition.

Bernie's authenticity and consistency is a huge asset, but here, it might show that he doesn't see that it is better to frame democratic socialism to be as American as the apple pie served at many Vermont community dinners than arguing that there are well functioning, fantastic countries like Denmark that are proud to say they are democratic socialist countries.

It may be that our choices in the primary may be between someone whose values we know and who is as honest about them as anyone can be and others who have recently moved to speak of those values showing the ability to read that that is where the primary voters are -- and who likely will assess where to re position themselves in the general election.

[DCBob]

29. I think the debate hurt Benie.

His socialist explanation and reasons for not being aggressive on gun control were weak. Plus the fact Hillary simply dominated the debate.

[karynnj]

40. I think HRC dominated -- but I think there were times that could hurt her long term

If there were a strong opponent, I think her strange "hunting down the Chinese" and (I suspect but can not make a case for) hoping that people conflate the agreement from Copenhagen with the ground breaking US/China climate pact. Most environmentalists consider Copenhagen to have been a failure -- and for many of them, the pact reached this year was a pleasant surprise. It is true that Podesta, high in Clinton's campaign, did work on some of the final details, but this was something that Obama and Kerry led on. Kerry, himself, has said that he was told when he took office that there was not much hope that anything could be done with China -- and they were leading the whole developing nations block.

I also think her phrasing that "she represented Wall Street" was pretty unfortunate and could be used against her. Not to mention, her record is really not one of calling Wall Street out. Again - if she had a strong Democratic opponent, they might use it against her.

Similarly, I thought her comments on Syria were not that good.

[DCBob]

41. Agreed she made some questionable comments.. that always happens in a debate..

but her confidence and intelligence and command of the subject matter overcame all that.

[karynnj]

42. Agreed -- but no one has ever questioned her intelligence, poise or knowledge

What she has had more problems with are:

- Her trustworthiness -- this goes to considering whether she actually wants to act on the position that she espouses or will it depend on whether the political winds favor it. Someone responded to my earlier post by correctly saying that FDR was a Keynesian, not a socialist democrat. Ignoring that you could be both, the point is that a strong Clinton supporter is arguing that Bernie does not opt for political expediency.

- Her honesty -- When she speaks of her own history is she too prone to rewriting it to either make herself the lead player, when she wasn't (ie Children's Health Insurance (SCHIP) - was a Senate written bill that was modeled after MA's program. The key player was Ted Kennedy - and Hatch was essential to getting Republicans on board. Hatch greatly changed many parts of what had been Kerry/Kennedy, its precursor bill which was written in 1996. Hillary did push Bill Clinton to include funding in his budget for the already passed Kennedy/Hatch bill and she did lobby, both to the public and to Congress in its favor.) Her team, this campaign has gradually expanded her claim on the Iran deal and on the opening to China.

-- Her likableness -- I think the debate did help her here. However, this is something she needs to stay VERY aware of. She is the front runner - a prohibitive one. Even though it is obvious that women - in general - have a tougher time getting ahead, she has for decades been extremely privileged and favored. She should let OTHERS make the comments that spell out that she could be the first woman President or remind people of long quoted observations - like that on shouting - where a man is labeled "assertive (positive) and a woman is labeled (aggressive). It is very obvious that she is a woman and it is pretty obvious that the entire party power apparatus is behind her. Given that, an "I'm treated differently because I am a girl (woman)" really does not play well to me - a woman a few years younger.

[okasha]

49. She's saying those things for all women,

not just herself.

Did you see the ERA signs in Alexandria yesterday? Hear the women call out "Tell it, girl!" She talked about pay inequality, cost of childcare, cost of education.

I suggest that anyone who wants to discuss this watch the video.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. I suspect Bernie didn't cite Roosevelt

I suspect Bernie didn't cite Roosevelt's New Deal in his defense of democratic socialism because FDR was a Keynesian and not a democratic socialist, a social democrat, or socialist and Bernie is an ideologically honest man. As Arthur Schlesinger, one of America's most noted historians, wrote Roosevelt " saved capitalism from itself."

[retrowire]

8. DLB: Bernie +95 in USA over Hillary. n/t

[ronnykmarshall]

59. What's DLB?

[retrowire]

63. my initials. I'm a pretty good source. I trust me. n/t

[ronnykmarshall]

64. You so crazy!!!

[boston bean]

10. .

[workinclasszero]

11. Wow!

Hillary is in the drivers seat now!

What a week she has had!!

[forest444]

37. As a Bernie Sanders supporter, I agree.

This may have just been her Comeback Kid moment.

[Robbins]

14. I see clinton supporters are now going to repost polls multiple times

already been posted.

[Politicub]

18. Thanks for the kick!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. I believe this is new, sir or madame.

Pubic Policy Polling?@ppppolls 2h

Hillary right around 70% on the first night of our North Carolina poll. Was at 55% on our last Biden-less poll

[yallerdawg]

32. Probably means next poll has to be for...

Senator Sanders (I-VT).

It's really not fair and balanced to pile on poll after poll for Hillary!

[treestar]

38. lol if there were a Fox News for the opposite end

It would sound something like GDP

[ronnykmarshall]

58. Then alert it.

[SunSeeker]

16. K & R

[Politicub]

17. Feel the rug bern

I expect a large contingent of DUers will need a tube of ointment for that really soon.

[workinclasszero]

20. Feel the rug bern

damn coffee all over the keyboard!

[karynnj]

43. To you and others, I would argue that this is not classy and counterproductive

HRc will NEED the general election on votes of the people that Bernie Sanders seems to be succeeding in getting to reengage. The race has ALWAYS been Clintons to lose -- just as 2008 was. No matter how exceptional the opponent in the primary was, if she runs - or ran - even a good campaign.

[workinclasszero]

44. Yeah you are right and I apologize

But after being punched about the head and shoulders 24/7 on this board because I am in the tiny minority on DU that supports Hillary, I am a little overjoyed that my candidate is just killin it all over the place this week.

I will try to restrain myself if possible.

[ronnykmarshall]

60. Thank you!!!

After the multiple alerts, insults like "put on your big girl panties" by a jury member, called a pro-pentagon, a member of the 1% (the only 1% is the milk in 'fridge) ..... it's hard not to thrown back what has been thrown on us.

[workinclasszero]

62. Ikr?

Not to mention getting banned once for 2 months for defending Hillary.

Oh well I'll try to be nice when Hillary wins big in the primaries. But it's gonna be hard to be humble after all the stuff that's gone on around here lately

[MohRokTah]

21. WOOHOO!

[moobu2]

23. Looks like Bernie peaked to early like I thought.

[workinclasszero]

25. I said he hit his ceiling weeks ago too

But what do I know? I'm just a corporate lackey for the corporatocracy/oligarchy or something.

[upaloopa]

28. Chances are if the spread widens Bernie will drop out before the NH primary.

He can read the tea leaves. A loss in NH would be a serious blow to his message. It would be a rejection of the revolution. His fans would throw him under the bus though,



On the other hand maybe a defeat is better because then his followers can save face by believing they were the chosen few who got beat by the ignorant multitudes.

[joshcryer]

36. No.

Super Tuesday is live or die, nothing before then.

[brooklynite]

51. No.

There's no reason fro Sanders to drop out even if the outcome is, er "inevitable". He can spend the entire campaign season pushing his issues, and then give an endorsement speech at the Convention.

[joshcryer]

56. True.

There are voting delegates to be considered.

[NCTraveler]

57. If it works out that Hillary runs away with it.....

early on, it will work well to have Saders continue. His supporters are passionate and will show up to events. Sanders will take no shots and Clinton will refine her rhetoric to match any one of a number of issues where Sanders supporters and herself are in full agreement.

I still think it's going to be a strong fight in an early state or two and momentum is a big thing.

[ronnykmarshall]

61. I hope he does stay in

I love seeing him at the debates .

[alcibiades_mystery]

54. He'll drop out Super Tuesday after losing Vermont

Bernie's campaign ends Wednesday, March 2, around 10 am Eastern Standard Time.

[Dems2002]

66. He can afford to stay in the race through Super Tuesday

Bernie can afford to stay in the race through Super Tuesday, easy. Also, he hasn't started airing ads yet. And while it seems like they've been campaigning forever, it's not even November yet.

The average person pays very little attention right now. Obama was not winning at this point according to the polls.

Here is a National Poll taken in November 2007 for the presidential candidates

Democratic President

Clinton 45.2
Obama 17.3
Edwards 11.0
Biden 2.8
Richardson 2.0
Kucinich 1.6
Dodd 0.4
Too early to tell 10.2
Don't know 8.6
Other .8

Just saying that things can change dramatically if Bernie does well in Iowa. And Iowa is one of the toughest states to poll.

[ucrdem]

26. He'll be taking home a Milton Bradley board version of the game . . .

Congratulations to this year's contestants!

[moobu2]

24. Bernie's been spreading himself to thin and taking NH for granted.

big mistake.

[DCBob]

33. I think he campaign was realizing that just winning NH was not good enough.

The numbers in the next states following NH and in super Tuesday were looking grim so I dont blame them for trying to cover some of them. He has a tremendous uphill battle that realistically he cant win.

[George II]

31. Here's an excerpt from their narrative:

PPP's new New Hampshire Democratic poll finds that Hillary Clinton's moved back into the lead in the state. She gets 41% to 33% for Bernie Sanders with Joe Biden at only 11%, Martin O'Malley at 4%, and Lincoln Chafee and Jim Webb each at 2%. Since PPP last polled New Hampshire in August Clinton's gone up 6 points from her then 35% standing, while Sanders has dropped 9 points from his then 42% standing.

Clinton's rise comes as her image with Democratic voters in the state has improved by a good amount. Her favorability (+56 at 73/17) has improved a net 18 points from August when she was at +38 (63/25) with primary voters. The key for her is that she has narrowed things up among Sanders' core groups of supporters. With 'very liberal' voters Sanders leads her only 43/42, with men Sanders leads her only 35/34, and with younger voters Sanders is ahead 42/34. Meanwhile Clinton remains dominant with the groups most friendly to her- she's up 50/24 with seniors, 47/31 with women, and leads by at least 8 points with every ideological group besides 'very liberal' voters.

Independents are a big part of the puzzle even keeping New Hampshire competitive at all. They account for about a third of the Democratic primary electorate, and Sanders has a 40/32 advantage over Clinton with them. Among actual Democrats Clinton leads Sanders by 18 points at 47/29, pretty similar to the national picture- it's really the unusual representation of non-Democrats in the Democratic primary in the state that has the race there looking competitive.

[Zambero]

34. She owes Gowdy big time

After Thursday's protracted unsuccessful attempt at political inquisition, Gowdy stepped down and walked up to Hillary, shaking her hand. Their verbal exchange was very brief, but might have gone something like this"

Gowdy: We sure helped you out today
Clinton" Yes, and thanks for doing so!

[Persondem]

35. Nice news. I am not all that surprised at the NC numbers.

The Clintons were rather popular and Bill came within a whisker of turning NC Blue back when we were solidly red on the presidential level. Hillary did well even in my rural county in 2008. Bill spoke at the local high school that year.

I would give her a good chance at carrying NC in 2016 should she be the nominee.

[DCBob]

39. I would bet NC is blue this year with Hillary as the nominee.

But I dont think Bernie could do it.

[Persondem]

47. I agree 100%. Clinton has several things that make her a better fit for NC voters.

Sanders has a good overall message but much of it would be overshadowed by the "negatives" that GOP ads would be sure to highlight. Unfortunately, NC voters as a whole are not that deep and go by feeling much of the time.

[SidDithers]

45. DU rec...nt

Sid

[MineralMan]

46. The latest PPP poll includes Biden, and I'm not seeing

the numbers you mentioned at the link. (ETA: I found them. A re-allocation by PPP.) They will be issuing results for a new poll early next week, and that will be the first one without Biden in the mix. I suspect Hillary's numbers will be higher than those you mentioned at that time.

Next week's poll results will be very informative, since they won't include Biden at all in their questions to responders. They will include voter sentiments that include thinking about the debate, Biden's announcement and her performance at the Benghazi hearing. I expect some very interesting results on Monday or Tuesday from the polls. They may even shock some people.

I think they're all going to be in the 60%-30% range on a national basis, with some showing an even larger margin.

The NH and IA polls may show a smaller margin, of course, but I think all will reflect a majority shift from Biden to Clinton. I also think O'Malley will get a nice bump. Sanders, I think will see unchanged or even lower numbers than he has.

I believe that Sanders has peaked at this point. I believe his percentages in polls will drop a bit in the upcoming weeks.

[Vinca]

48. Maybe I better start answering the phone and responding to the darn polls.

They call at least twice a day at my house in New Hampshire. I recognize them on the caller ID and ignore them.

[leftofcool]

52. Big DU rec!

[alcibiades_mystery]

53. It will begin to sink in when Hillary wins NH big

The Bernie supporters are pretty much counting on New Hampshire (a sensible hope, I should add). If Bernie can't pull in New Hampshire, it will be accumulating losses through Super Tuesday, when he will then lose even Vermont and throw in the towel.

[coyote]

55. Woohoo...voting for the status quo is great!!!!!

No change we can believe in. Way to go America.

[Agschmid]

65. Kick!