2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumFavorability Ratings Show Hillary Clinton Is Unelectable
and Bernie Sanders Wins a General Election
Democrats must win swing states in 2016 to prevent Trump or another Republican from sitting in the Oval Office. Since voters in general elections normally won't vote for a candidate they don't like or at least find trustworthy, it's imperative that a Democratic nominee hold positive favorability ratings going into Election Day.
I explain in great detail in my latest YouTube segment why Hillary Clinton is unelectable due to negative favorability polls nationwide and within swing states.
Also, it used to be important not have an ongoing FBI investigation linked to emails, but any controversy related to the former Secretary of State is viewed as a badge of honor to certain voters. Nonetheless, electability is always tied to winning battleground states, and Hillary Clinton faces an uphill battle pertaining to electoral votes in these regions.
Regarding swing states in 2016, Quinnipiac University's July and August Swing State Polls highlight that voters in Colorado, Iowa, Virginia, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania don't find Hillary Clinton to be trustworthy:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodman/favorability-ratings-show-hillary-clinton-is-unelectable_b_8388316.html
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)Shadowflash
(1,536 posts)on such a well thought and reasoned rebuttal to the material presented.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2015/10/26/morning-plum-republicans-are-in-denial-about-hillary-clinton/
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hillary-clinton-will-be-our-next-president-you-can-bet-on-it-2015-10-26
http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2016president
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner
The bank is open...DemocratSinceBirth is not in this for pecuniary gain or filthy lucre...If someone wants to wager I will bet $1,000.00 that Hillary Clinton will be the nominee... If I lose I will give the person the money to do as he or she pleases with it. If I win I will donate the $1,000.00 I won to charity...
I will also go double or nothing in the general. At that point I have no exposure.
Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)Sounds like a winning strategy.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)840high
(17,196 posts)MBS
(9,688 posts)I hope her campaign is taking the "honest and trustworthy" problem seriously.
and if the numbers are reflecting they way people see Hillary she is not the shoe in that many feel she is.
tblue
(16,350 posts)I feel a storm a-comin'.
sufrommich
(22,871 posts)Yep,H.A. Goodman.
DFW
(54,284 posts)In fairness, the OP never claimed that the post was from an objective source.
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)this week.
MSM needs a horse race. The Dem primary just isn't a hot topic.
emulatorloo
(44,063 posts)especially when they are coming from authors like Goodman, who aligns himself w Rand Paul.
Clinton's "unfavorables" are because of a constant campaign by GOP and libertarians who constantly lie about her in order to push down her favorable ratings.
Embracing "Republican Hillary Hate" as a reason to vote for Bernie is going to be a real non-starter with undecided Dem primary voters. And with voters who now support HRC but who could be still be convinced to support Bernie.
Additionally I guarantee you those same GOP assholes will aim their bullshit at Bernie once he wins Iowa and New Hampshire to drive his favorables down.
Response to emulatorloo (Reply #7)
Post removed
emulatorloo
(44,063 posts)and Sanders has long supported Dems by caucusing with them and voting with them.
That being said IMHO you are correct that some libertarians share a willingness with the Republicans to say ANYTHING, and to mimic the GOP talking points either inadvertently or deliberately Note how Goodman pimps the Benghazi committees manufactured email "scandal".
Response to emulatorloo (Reply #13)
misterhighwasted This message was self-deleted by its author.
KoKo
(84,711 posts)Donations.
Outside Envelope says:
BERNIE --DSCC
Let's create an America and a government that works for all and not just the top one percent.
Inside he goes for three pages with attacks on the Republicans terrible policies explaining how they don't stand up for the Middle Class of America and praises the DSCC for Democratic Values and why it's so important for us Dens to hold the Senate. He lists the Names of the declared Democrats running who need our help: Russ Feingold, Wisconsin; Catherine Cortez Masto, Nevada; Tammy Duckworth, Illinois,
He asks that we donate now to get matching funds for these candidates before November 16th.
---------------
Response to KoKo (Reply #18)
misterhighwasted This message was self-deleted by its author.
KoKo
(84,711 posts)Skidmore
(37,364 posts)I will direct my donations to my candidates of choice directly.
KoKo
(84,711 posts)I give to the Individual Candidates through "Act Blue" (which gives you an OPT OUT of their Fee if you Check the Box)..and I still think giving by CHECK is better but then....I'm old school.
And they get Matching Funds for their Campaigns if you believe the DSCC......These are Liberals..
He lists the Names of the declared Democrats running who need our help: Russ Feingold, Wisconsin; Catherine Cortez Masto, Nevada; Tammy Duckworth, Illinois,
He asks that we donate now to get matching funds for these candidates before November 16th.
Response to KoKo (Reply #43)
misterhighwasted This message was self-deleted by its author.
sheshe2
(83,654 posts)Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)sheshe2
(83,654 posts)George II
(67,782 posts)...more often than I'd like to see in a person who wants to represent Democrats.
Rilgin
(787 posts)A lot of her unfavorables come from her and her past decisions. The right wing smears like the Benghazi smears often work in her favor. It really depends on the cause.
Republican over reach in attacks often increases favorability ratings. Bill Clintons favorables went up during impeachment since the attacks there were groundless. HRC got a bounce from the recent Benghazi hearings since it was clearly farce.
However, there is also fire in her past which does resonate generally. She does change her tone and speeches for every audiance. Her politics like Bills is based on money, power and triangulation of issues. To fully support her must involve cognitive dissonance since you have to ignore knowledge that her public posture is an act and just trust that her heart and internal issues are good. This does turn off high principle active voters and also increases generally unfavorability and honesty perceptions that show up in the polls.
DFW
(54,284 posts)I did a post in 2008, when the Hillary vs. Obama DU primary fight was heating up (somewhere about 15% as nasty as it is this year). I had just been at a small meeting with Howard Dean an Al Gore. Howard told about how bummed he was at having to fold his own campaign in 2004, and how Gore at the time had told him that the goal of getting a Democrat elected was far bigger than any one candidate, even Howard, whom Gore had endorsed. Howard quickly came to agree, dropped all thought of pursuing the nomination and went after the DNC chairmanship, which he won. He thought he could do the most good there, and WOW was he right.
Obviously on DU, the notion that winning the White House is bigger than any one candidate is having little resonance this year. It doesn't mean anything has changed. Before winning the DNC chair, Howard saw Kerry win Ohio by such a small margin as to be susceptible to Republican electoral fraud, and Cheney got his second term. Cheneybush installed Roberts and Alito. While they couldn't stop the election of a Democratic Congress or Obama two years later, they DID make Citizens United the law of the land, and thereby effectively neutralized many of Obama's initiatives.
The next president will be nominating some SCOTUS nominees. They WILL be making decisions that affect us all. Whoever our nominee is, if we win, we will get more Sotomayor, Kagan, Breyer and Bader-Ginsburg. If we lose, we get more Scalia, Thomas, Roberts and Alito. When all the screaming about the nominee is done, anyone who is bummed out over the nomination, and says "no way I'll vote for him/her" should really give it a second thought or two. There will be a LOT of other people out there affected by the outcome of the general, not just one, two or even a hundred of us.
reformist2
(9,841 posts)Dr Hobbitstein
(6,568 posts)And the Rand Paul he rode in on.
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Sid
pinebox
(5,761 posts)that anytime someone posts something from Goodman, the Hillary camp thinks it's red meat.
Meanwhile, this. Which IS NOT Goodman.
http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/presidential-campaign/257334-maybe-hillary-clinton-is-the-unelectable-candidate
Outside of the Democratic Party, Clinton still faces massive challenges appealing to general voters. The Huffpost pollster currently has Clinton with a massive unfavorability gap, with unfavorability exceeding favorability by more than 12 percent. In other polling, a significant majority of voters said that they did not trust Mrs. Clinton.
Some may argue that Hillary's negative polling is only a result of harsh public scrutiny, particularly by the right-leaning media. After all, for eight years Clinton has been seen as the "inevitable" candidate. It would be advantageous for the right-wing media, understandably so, to try and bring down the Democratic front-runner. Unfortunately for the Democrats, there is no denying that all the negative publicity, along with the email and state department scandals, has taken a toll on Clinton's prospective candidacy. With so many resources targeted at crippling Clinton's reputation and her hopes at presidency, nominating another candidate in her stead would do something akin to "wiping the slate clean."
Throughout Clinton's initial campaigning, many Democrats have decided to turn a blind eye to much of the negativity surrounding her campaign. Instead, the rank-and-file have focused on questioning whether Sanders could run an "electable" campaign for the general election. By doubting the electability of Senator Sanders the mainstream Democratic base has forgotten to ask itself a far more important question: Is Hillary Clinton, the prophesied Democratic candidate, capable of winning a general election in the first place?
brooklynite
(94,333 posts)Perhaps an ever so slight bias?
Persondem
(1,936 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)zappaman
(20,606 posts)NanceGreggs
(27,813 posts)... is still the clear front-runner.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)I am going for a swim. I love L A.
NanceGreggs
(27,813 posts)I just keep asking myself how much common sense does one have to suspend in order to look at the poll numbers and think HRC is unelectable, but BS is?
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)Sanders will not win the DNC nomination. It will be either Clinton or O'Malley.
Why would we link to an article by Goodman in the first place.
sheshe2
(83,654 posts)Historic NY
(37,449 posts)have a nice cup of Joe.
Babel_17
(5,400 posts)We have to take some swing states. We'll crush the Republicans to a humiliating degree in some states, but we still need to win those tight races.