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My PSA re: the Monmouth Poll, source of so much consternation
Their methodology with the operative sentence underlined:
The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from October 22
to 25, 2015 with a statewide random sample of 400 Iowa voters drawn from a list of registered Democratic voters who voted
in at least one of the last two state primary elections and indicate they are likely to attend the Democratic presidential caucuses
in February 2016. This includes 300 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 100 contacted by a live
interviewer on a cell phone, in English. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and
analysis. Final sample is weighted for age and gender based on state registration list information on the pool of voters who
participate in primary elections. Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field) and Aristotle (voter list). For
results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum
margin of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups
(see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in
conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.
to 25, 2015 with a statewide random sample of 400 Iowa voters drawn from a list of registered Democratic voters who voted
in at least one of the last two state primary elections and indicate they are likely to attend the Democratic presidential caucuses
in February 2016. This includes 300 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 100 contacted by a live
interviewer on a cell phone, in English. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and
analysis. Final sample is weighted for age and gender based on state registration list information on the pool of voters who
participate in primary elections. Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field) and Aristotle (voter list). For
results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum
margin of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups
(see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in
conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.
If you have any questions re their methodology they can be contacted here:
Contact:
PATRICK MURRAY
732-979-6769 (cell); 732-263-5858 (office)
pdmurray@monmouth.edu
Follow on Twitter: @PollsterPatrick
PATRICK MURRAY
732-979-6769 (cell); 732-263-5858 (office)
pdmurray@monmouth.edu
Follow on Twitter: @PollsterPatrick
Have a nice day.
22 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
= new reply since forum marked as read
let me know when the smoke clears.
