Hillary Clinton’s poll numbers are beside the point

[RandySF]

But, in reality, the size of Clinton’s lead doesn’t really matter. All campaigns have peaks and valleys, and even winning candidates hit bumps in the road. The hyperbolic coverage of the summer and early fall, suggesting that Clinton was in trouble because of her alleged e-mail scandal, made for good news copy, but it always masked the underlying and inescapable reality of the Democratic primary race — namely, that barring some unforeseen scandal, Clinton will be the Democratic nominee for president.

Her advantages are too many, her support within the party too great, her political skills too well refined, and the limitations of her opponents all too glaring. I don’t know if Clinton’s lead today really stands at 40 percent. Maybe it’s half that; maybe it’s even higher. But I do know that a Democratic National Convention in 2016 in which Clinton is not the party’s presidential nominee is very, very hard to imagine. Beware any media narrative that suggests otherwise.


https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2015/10/28/hillary-clinton-poll-numbers-are-beside-point/WwcBaTIT6eLPMCEF5PDaBK/story.html

[HassleCat]

1. Probably correct

Should be smooth sailing for her, right through the convention. Then she has to figure out how to attract independents and crossover voters. She will probably do that by "evolving" rightward on several issues, dropping the talk about being a populist, ease up on issues like gun control and the death penalty, and so on. She is counting on being able to abandon her current positions on certain issues without losing too much of the Democratic base. She's also gambling that repudiating any socialist or progressive tendencies will win her some crossover Republicans. This has been the Democratic strategy since 1980. It almost never works for any office except the presidency, and then not reliably. We'll see, I guess.