Ten Days of Democratic Presidential Polls!

[George II]

Thursday, October 29

Pennsylvania Presidential Primary Franklin & Marshall Clinton 52, Sanders 18, O'Malley 0, Lessig Clinton +34

Wednesday, October 28

Texas Presidential Primary KTVT-CBS 11 Clinton 59, Sanders 10, O'Malley 3 Clinton +49
Oklahoma Presidential Primary The Oklahoman Clinton 30, Sanders 21, O'Malley 1 Clinton +9

Tuesday, October 27

Iowa Presidential Caucus Monmouth Clinton 65, Sanders 24, O'Malley 5 Clinton +41
Iowa Presidential Caucus Loras College Clinton 62, Sanders 24, O'Malley 3 Clinton +38
South Carolina Presidential Primary Clemson Clinton 43, Sanders 6, O'Malley 1, Clinton +37
North Carolina Presidential Primary PPP (D) Clinton 61, Sanders 24, O'Malley 5, Lessig 2 Clinton +37

Sunday, October 25

Iowa Presidential Caucus CBS/YouGov Clinton 46, Sanders 43, O'Malley 3 Clinton +3
New Hampshire 2016 Primary CBS/YouGov Sanders 54, Clinton 39, O'Malley 3, Webb 0, Chafee 0 Sanders +15
South Carolina Presidential Primary CBS/YouGov Clinton 68, Sanders 25, O'Malley 1, Webb 1, Chafee 0 Clinton +43

Friday, October 23

Iowa Presidential Caucus Quinnipiac Clinton 51, Sanders 40, O'Malley 4 Clinton +11

Thursday, October 22

Iowa Presidential Caucus DMR/Bloomberg Clinton 48, Sanders 41, O'Malley 2 Clinton +7
Wisconsin Presidential Primary WPR/St. Norbert Clinton 47, Sanders 42, O'Malley 1, Chafee 1, Webb 0, Clinton +5
Florida Presidential Primary UNF Clinton 55, Sanders 16, Biden 11, O'Malley/Webb/Chafee 0 Clinton +39

Wednesday, October 21

New Hampshire 2016 Primary WBUR Sanders 34, Clinton 38, Biden 9, O'Malley 1, Webb 2, Chafee 0 Clinton +4

Tuesday, October 20

2016 Presidential Nomination NBC/WSJ Clinton 49, Sanders 29, Biden 15, Webb 2, O'Malley 1, Chafee 0 Clinton +20
2016 Presidential Nomination ABC/Wash Post Clinton 54, Sanders 23, Biden 16, Webb 1, O'Malley 1, Chafee 0 Clinton +31
New Hampshire 2016 Primary Bloomberg/St. Anselm Sanders 41, Clinton 36, Biden 10, Webb 1, O'Malley/Chafee 0 Sanders +5
New Hampshire 2016 Primary PPP (D) Sanders 33, Clinton 41, Biden 11, O'Malley 4, Webb 2, Chafee 2 Clinton +8
Massachusetts Presidential Primary Emerson Coll Clinton 59, Sanders 25, Biden, Webb 5, O'Malley 3, Chafee 3 Clinton +34

Monday, October 19

2016 Presidential Nomination CNN/ORC Clinton 45, Sanders 29, Biden 18, Webb 1, O'Malley 0, Chafee 0 Clinton +16
2016 Presidential Nomination Monmouth Clinton 48, Sanders 21, Biden 17, Webb 1, O'Malley 0, Chafee 0 Clinton +27
New Hampshire 2016 Primary Boston Herald/FPU Sanders 38, Clinton 30, Biden 19, O'Malley/Webb/Chafee 1 Sanders +8

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

[bravenak]

1. Appears that Clinton is winning.

Bernie is AWESOME in the Senate!!! They will be happy to see him back!

[bowens43]

2. of course if hillary is the nominee not only do we lose the presidency

we lose the chance to retake the senate......

[brooklynite]

3. Care to break down that analysis?

Because I know several Senate candidates who would disagree with you.

[bravenak]

4. Not true.

The electoral college seems to indicate that Hillary has a decent chance. Bernie would have to beat her for the idea of him doing anything could come to fruition. He cannot beat her. His coalition is not BROAD enough.

[Agnosticsherbet]

5. Show me the data upon which you base your prediction.

[zappaman]

6. Says who?

[livetohike]

7. Tell us who Bernie would drag in on his coat tails? He can't even get any sitting Senators

to endorse him.

[tecelote]

8. Hillary has the polls because she is their darling.

We'll stay at war and we'll be nice to Wall Street.

All good things - right?

[Attorney in Texas]

9. More likely, the race is about Clinton 41% and Sanders 30.3%. Here is how you can show that:

Pollster at Huffington Post is a poll aggregator like Real Clear Politics.

Real Clear Politics chooses what polls it aggregates and which ones it excludes -- you don't get a vote. Pollster has a wicked cool feature in that it includes all kinds of polls but lets you apply your own filter.

So we can walk through that process. We can include or exclude internet polls, automated phone polls, live phone polls, and IVR/Online polls. Live phone polls are the gold standard, so let's use only those. Next, we can include polls of likely voters, all registered voters, or all adults. Likely voter polls are universally considered more accurate than the other two for horse race polling so let's just use live phone polls of likely voters. Next, we can include or exclude partisan-funded polls, partisan pollsters' polls that were not financed by a specific campaign, or nonpartisan. Let's only consider nonpartisan polls.

In the end, an aggregate of the most reliable nonpartisan polls only, Clinton is at 41% and Sanders is at 30.3%.

[AngryParakeet]

10. The problem with that is...

By using that method, that average is incredibly out of date. That average only used two polls from this month, all of which have Biden, Webb and Chafee in them. If I can also add, there's nothing wrong with using partisan affiliated pollsters. Some of the most accurate pollsters in 2012 were in fact party affiliated. What you've done is cherry picked pollsters to the point where this aggregate is probably way off.

[Attorney in Texas]

11. That tells you the more recent polls are partisan unreliable internet polls of unlikely voters (or

have at least one or more of those weaknesses).

If you based a decision on garbage data that is more timely than the available good data, you still have chosen to decide an issue based on garbage data.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. Nate Silver, Drew Linzer, and Sam Wang

Nate Silver, Drew Linzer, Sam Wang and other political scientists/statisticians simply used the Law Of Large Numbers and included all the available polling and essentially predicted the percentage of the popular votes Mitt Romney and Barack Obama received in 2012 as well as all the states the respective candidates would win. Once a person starts excluding or including polls because he or she likes this one or that one and doesn't like this one or that one, bias is introduced into the sample...


That's pretty straight forward social science/statistics that I doubt anybody who works in the field of political science research would seriously demur from.

[MohRokTah]

13. UNSKEW THOSE POLLS!!!!!

[workinclasszero]

12. Hillary has got this race locked up

I wonder when Bernie will concede the race?

Will he drag it out all the way to the convention with 10 delagates maybe while Hillary has all the rest?

If so it will make the "Bernie Revolution " look really silly.

Even more than it does now I mean.

[MohRokTah]

14. Hillary will clinch mid-March at the latest

If Sanders drags it out after it's been clinched, he'd end up losing his Senate seat.

[workinclasszero]

16. He better start writing a consession

speech now because he will get wiped out on Super Tuesday.

He can then endorse Hillary for the nomination and presidency.

GD: P is going to be a laugh riot when that happens!

[George II]

17. Even better than it's been the last two weeks!

[DCBob]

15. Let the unskewing begin!

[George II]

18. Opening sentence of Sanders' concession speech:

"I've been SKEWED!"

[DCBob]

21. LOL!

[SunSeeker]

19. K & R