Markos Moulitsas: The race in the Electoral College ISN'T tightening

[bigdarryl]

I love Markos insight on politics and this election http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/08/23/1123491/-Battleground-snapshot-The-race-in-the-Electoral-College-isn-t-tightening

[a geek named Bob]

1. So Let's Keep The Pressure On

[Va Lefty]

2. Excellent breakdown on battleground states however,

one point of contention--Markos states "Republican groups outspent the Democrats 3-1 in television last week. Perhaps without this spending disparity the numbers would be much different, with Obama winning easily, but I suspect that wouldn't be the case. I continue to believe that TV Super PAC spending at the presidential level (and Senate level too) has been wasted."
The people running these packs are many things but stupid is not one of them. They wouldn't be spending these huge amounts of $$$ if they thought it was not helping their candidates/agenda. I hope Markos is right about the Super Pacs, but money usually matters in elections especially a big discrepancy like 3-1 or 4-1.

[yellowcanine]

3. My hunch is that Markos is correct about Super PAC spending and Obama in the general election.

Super PACs certainly had an effect in the Republican primaries, no question. And I think Super Pacs helped to define Romney in a negative way regarding taxes and Bain. I have a hard time seeing how the PACs will do much in terms of defining an incumbent like Obama though. For example, people are not going to be significantly influenced by a PAC as to how much they like Obama. That is pretty much set. And on questions of the economy or foreign policy there also will be little effect - the Swiftboating on bin Laden is pissing in the wind, imo.

[Ashleyshubby]

4. I don't remember it ever being this tight in Pollster.com

247-191 in favor of Obama. http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map

[RedStateLiberal]

5. Rasmussen-free EV map shows Obama WAY ahead.

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Maps/Aug24-noras.html

[Ashleyshubby]

6. Just curious. Why is NC blue in your link?

Realclearpolitic has Romney by 1% in the average of all polls, and Pollster.com has Obama ahead by 1.1%

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-north-carolina-president-romney-vs-obama

[RedStateLiberal]

7. Probably because it excludes Rasmussen polls

The latest PPP poll from NC (Aug 5) shows Obama +3.

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/pres_polls.html

[Ashleyshubby]

8. With Rasmussen excluded in Pollster.com, Romney's still ahead

Try it. Pollster.com allows you to exclude any pollster(s) in their "filter" dropdown menu.

[RedStateLiberal]

9. Yeah, it's really a toss-up.

I really don't expect Obama to win NC. He doesn't really need that state since he's so far ahead in EVs.