Post debate, Sanders net-favorability with black people dropped; Clinton's substantially increased.

[pnwmom]

Clinton is also doing better with self-identified liberals.

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2015/11/11/hillary-clintons-favorable-rating-soars-bernie-sanders-is-stagnant

The front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination has seen her net favorable rating jump 14 points among Democrats and those who lean to the left since the first Democratic debate in October, while her top competitor – Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont – has seen his own rating stay fairly stagnant, according to Gallup polling released this week. Both candidates, along with former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley, will take the stage again Saturday in Iowa for the second official debate of the Democratic primary.

SNIP

According to Gallup, Clinton now has a 63 percent net favorable rating among those on the left, up from 49 percent just before the debate. Her current tally is her highest since Gallup began tracking views of the candidates in July.

SNIP

Clinton has a nearly 90 percent net favorable rating among non-Hispanic blacks, according to Gallup, compared with Sanders' meager rating of 21 percent. That gap has gotten even worse since before the last debate, when the difference was a lower – but still substantial – 55 percentage points.


SNIP

Still, the Gallup polling showed Clinton is even more well-liked among liberals than Sanders, a self-described democratic socialist, with Clinton holding an 11-point lead in favorability among the sector.

[Thinkingabout]

1. K & R

She has shown her presidential ability during the debate, in her campaign meetings and in the Benghazi testimony. She had a good October. She has shown she is able to listen to everyone, the results shows.

[upaloopa]

2. Well you just gotta love it don't you

Clinton is even more well liked among liberals.
If that at doesn't show that DU is a bubble not representing the real world nothing does.
Madam President!

[1StrongBlackMan]

3. Stop being such a racist ... you racist, you!!!! ...

Only a race-baiter would post such commentary regarding the fall in net favorability.

[pnwmom]

4. Yeah, that must be it.

[1StrongBlackMan]

5. Just thought I'd save some folks some typing! eom.

[bravenak]

6. Wonder why his favorability rating is not rising with Black voters?

[Sheepshank]

9. Ground troops who love to speak for Bernie

...who proclaim to know Bernie's mind, his motivations, they speak for him all the time. You should hear the crap they say in his name. ooh, yeah, you do hear it all the time.

It's not doing Bernie any favors.

[bravenak]

10. Maybe they should stop!

[Number23]

14. I think you are underestimating the power of the Cornell West endorsement

That probably turned off alot of black voters.

And Black Twitter has been doing alot lately to remind posters of Sanders comments towards Obama over the years. None of this has helped him with the black community.

[Cha]

16. Like these observant people?..

#MmmOhMyGod



http://www.democraticunderground.com/110726215

They are not buying what he's selling.

[Number23]

29. Cha, that is one hell of a post. And a really good example of the kind of stuff that I was talking

about.

Alot of black folks have been reminded lately that Sanders wanted to primary Obama in 2012 and has trashed Obama more than once. And I think alot of these factors combined explain why his already dismal support in minority communities has managed to plummet even further.

So while Sanders supporters have done alot to tarnish and slime Sanders name in minority communities, unfortunately Sanders has done a few things himself in that regard.

[Cha]

35. I know, huh! These "Progressive O-Bots" cover the spectrum of why they're Not

"feelin' the bern".

They formed their website in the 1st place because of all the ODS from so-called progs.

You know Bernie's not foolin' them or anyone else who's been paying attention the last 7 years and counting.

I have no idea why he isn't owning his record of history on slamming President Obama. And, shining even more light on it because of his denials.

Thank you, 23.

[Sheepshank]

33. well...that was a fun little confirmation that Bernie plays politics

and there was nothing saintly about the walk back.

[Cha]

37. bernie is shining even more light on his slamming the President with his denials. We're not

amused.

Thanks Sheepshank.

[pnwmom]

21. And O'Malley reminded them in the debate about how Sanders thought Obama

should be primaried in 2012.

[nc4bo]

7. This is such a clash with results from the various focus groups.

because it is sorta contradictory.

Maybe there is activity occurring below the radar? I just don't know what the hell is going on anymore.

[link:http:// http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251791793|

[winter is coming]

11. Post-debate was the timeframe when pollsters stopped asking about Biden

and also when they switched over to polling "likely" voters... i.e., people who'd actually voted in previous primaries. HRC doing better among the die-hards who turn out every election. Bernie's bringing in a larger share of younger voters and disenfranchised voters returning to the party--and they're not "likely" primary voters. I don't think we'll really have a good feel on where things stand until Iowa and NH.

[pnwmom]

22. It's not true that pollsters have already switched to polling likely voters.

Here is what Gallup had to say about this poll. Bottom line is they included Democrats and Independents who self-identify as "leaning" Democratic.

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Oct. 25-Nov.7, 2015, on the Gallup U.S. Daily survey, with a random sample of up to 2,971 U.S. adults identifying as Democrats or independents who lean Democratic, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. Hillary Clinton was rated by a random subset of 801 Democrats and Bernie Sanders by 764 Democrats during this period. For results based on these samples, the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

[winter is coming]

25. That's one poll, which doesn't specify whether or not those Dems/leaners

had been screened as likely voters. Most of the polls that are being done in recent days are of likely primary voters.

[pnwmom]

32. Gallup ALWAYS carefully labels their polls, and their policy is not to shift to

likely voters till much later in the process.

This is not a poll of likely voters. If it were, they would have said.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110272/registered-voters-vs-likely-voters.aspx

Two final notes.

Some observers have argued that the Obama campaign will successfully increase turnout among groups that typically are less likely to vote, including in particular young voters. We are keenly aware of these hypotheses and are continually and carefully analyzing our data to make sure we pick up any unique or unusual surge of turnout potential among certain subgroups of the population.

Second, we are at this point reporting likely voter estimates on only an occasional basis. We feel that the trends among registered voters give us the best way to track election preferences in our daily poll, in part because many voters are not yet in a position to accurately estimate their chances of voting on Election Day. But from time to time, we do estimate (and report) likely voter results to give us a feel for the potential difference turnout could make in November. So far this summer, there have been occasions when -- as was the case this past weekend after the GOP convention -- likely voters were decidedly more Republican. But there have also been occasions when there was little difference between the vote patterns of likely voters and those of registered voters. We will continue to monitor these patterns as Election Day draws closer.

[Le Taz Hot]

12. Once again, the polls were

"Democrats" which are Hillary's base. Sanders' draw is much broader and I've yet to see a poll that reflected anything other than Democrats or Likely Democrats. At least half of our members (over 200) are Decline to State and only have cell phones so they've never been polled nor are they likely to be polled.

[pnwmom]

23. You're wrong. This Gallup poll included Independents who said they leaned Democratic.

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Oct. 25-Nov.7, 2015, on the Gallup U.S. Daily survey, with a random sample of up to 2,971 U.S. adults identifying as Democrats or independents who lean Democratic, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. Hillary Clinton was rated by a random subset of 801 Democrats and Bernie Sanders by 764 Democrats during this period. For results based on these samples, the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

[Le Taz Hot]

26. Well, then, since it's all over except that pesky voting thing.

we should all just give up and resign ourselves to slavery to our corporate overlords. And the shills rejoice.

[pnwmom]

31. Or -- Bernie could start listening instead of telling people he knows what's good for them.

A rising tide won't raise African American boats. They'll still be likely to sink, due to institutional racism.

[Le Taz Hot]

34. Well, yes, he long ago established that he wanted

racial equality for everyone except for AA people. It's well documented.

[Sheepshank]

36. we need to include the Bernie supporters who are constantly telling people....

how idiotic they are for voting anyone but for the man who has always had their back then proceeding to call the black electorate uninformed, blind, easily manipulated and suffering from Stockholm Syndrome, was bad politics. Those negaive labels were not a one off meme, its touted loud and clear over and over.

I agree with another poster that says Cornell West debaucle didn't help either as well as the Sanders insults to the Dems and especially to Obama. Clearly there is a convergence of many issues, and in the totality of it all, Bernie comes out the loser.

[pnwmom]

13. Focus groups are statistically meaningless.

I used to work at a major polling organization. The focus groups are just to give the pollsters ideas. And, in the case of TV news, they're there to give instant feedback. But they're just a handful of available, interested people. They only represent themselves -- not some larger group.

In a poll, a sample is randomly pulled from the larger population, and the results are supposed to be within the stated margin of error at least 95% of the time. So if another random group were pulled from that population, their results would be within that same margin of error.

[NurseJackie]

15. Thank you!

[Freddie Stubbs]

8. Surely there is some way to blame Debbie Wasserman Schultz for this

[Cha]

17. Surely! And, the President and Hillary..

[Armstead]

18. This is getting tiresome and boring

Hint. Most of Sanders supporters realize it is an uphill struggle. Doesn't mean it's not worth trying.

[pnwmom]

19. Then they should be pushing him to focus more on the minority voters

that are critical to any Democratic coalition.

Some people here have the opinion that the minority voters don't matter because Bernie will get votes of more independents. But they're wrong.

[Armstead]

24. This whole thing is making me ill

Yes Sanders has a problem winning support from AA voters. he came from being 85 percent unknown by the American public. Black, White, Hispanic....a lot of people have no clue who he is or what he's about.

And The Clintons have cultivated that segment of the Democratic base for decades (though their policies have been far from supportive at times).

And Bernie can come across as a cranky old white guy. Easy to misunderstand if you don't know what he's really about.

So yeah. It's an uphill battle. But don't perpetuate this bullshit that he doesn't give a shit about the AA community or that he isnlt working hard to earn their support. That's crap.

And it''s being racially divisive by implying it.

[pnwmom]

28. I'm NOT saying he doesn't give a shit about the AA community. He obviously does.

But he's not necessarily in tune with what they want to hear. For example, his positions on gun control. AA people and Latinos are much more likely than whites to support it. They think he's clueless on an important issue that touches many of them every day.

AA people and Latinos are also among the Dem groups with the highest percentage of people with a faith. HRC and O'Malley can speak to that. Sanders hasn't, at least so far. And many of his supporters here seem to be virulently anti-religion -- which doesn't help him.

There is so much of an attitude of why-are-these-dumb-black-people-not-supporting-Bernie among many of his supporters. Not you -- and definitely not Bernie. But that smugly superior attitude of some of his most vocal supporters is putting off many minority people who might otherwise be open to his message.

Take Bravenak, for example, who used to post FOR Bernie in the African American forum. But she said something wrong to some Bernie supporters, and the next thing she knew she was being alert-stalked. And she's still getting hidden for some perfectly innocuous posts.

I know you're just one person who can't do anything to rein these people in. And maybe some of them are disruptors, I don't know. But they're obviously having a strong effect on the minority community in DU. And it doesn't help Bernie at all.

[Bread and Circus]

38. This is one of the fairest posts I have seen in a long time on DU.

Thank you.

Wading through the bullshit here is horrible at times.

And this whole "Bernie as out of touch with PoC" frame is Rovian crap.

[Le Taz Hot]

27. Oh, you are COMPLETELY missing the point here!

You're supposed to just lay down and give up. Resistance is futile 'cause polls.

[brooklynite]

30. So you're saying we shouldn't discuss political issues on a political blog?

Sort of takes the fun out of life...

[riversedge]

20. needs a big REC. Thanks.