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tgards79

(1,415 posts)
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 08:57 PM Nov 2015

PPP Poll Has Hillary Easily Winning 2nd Dem Debate. And This is a Real Poll. Not an Internet Poll.

A Public Policy Polling survey of Democratic primary voters nationally who watched tonight’s debate finds that it reinforced Hillary Clinton’s front runner status. Viewers overwhelmingly think she won the debate, and particularly trust her over the rest of the Democratic field when it comes to issues of national security.

Key findings from the survey include:

-67% of voters think Clinton won the debate, to 20% for Bernie Sanders and 7% for Martin O’Malley. On a related note 63% of viewers said the debate gave them a more positive opinion of Clinton, compared to 41% who said it gave them a more positive opinion of Sanders, and 37% who said it gave them a more positive opinion of O’Malley.

-Clinton is by a wide margin the candidate debate watchers trust the most on national security issues. 75% say they have the most faith in Clinton on that front, compared to only 17% for Sanders, and 5% for O’Malley. National security issues were a primary focus tonight in the aftermath of yesterday’s tragedy in France, and Democratic voters by far and away trust Clinton the most on that issue.

-What’s particularly striking is how universal the sentiment that Clinton won the debate tonight is among all the different groups within the Democratic Party. 86% of African Americans, 73% of women, 70% of moderates, 69% of seniors, 67% of Hispanics, 65% of liberals, 61% of white voters, 58% of men, and 50% of younger voters all think that Clinton was the winner of tonight’s debate.

-Overall among those who watched the debate tonight, 67% say they plan to vote for Clinton in the primary to 25% for Sanders, and 4% for O’Malley.

Clinton came into tonight’s debate as the clear front runner for the Democrats and these numbers make it clear that the debate and particularly Clinton’s strength on national security issues just reinforced her front runner status.

PPP interviewed 510 Democratic primary voters nationally by telephone after the debate who had been pre-screened on Thursday and Friday as planning to watch the debate and willing to give their opinions about it afterward. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.3%. This research was conducted on behalf of Correct The Record.

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PPP Poll Has Hillary Easily Winning 2nd Dem Debate. And This is a Real Poll. Not an Internet Poll. (Original Post) tgards79 Nov 2015 OP
And we know this..... daleanime Nov 2015 #1
Lol artislife Nov 2015 #16
Wow, still pushing this discredited poll sponsored by David Brock's SUPERPAC. Tsk, tsk. reformist2 Nov 2015 #2
Bad poll. Weidman Nov 2015 #3
Who are you guys trying to convince by repeating this pro-Hillary poll from a Hillary superpac? litlbilly Nov 2015 #6
Wonder if it backfired on Brock again Weidman Nov 2015 #12
It might, we will see in a day or so litlbilly Nov 2015 #19
It is a paid for poll associated with a Hillary supporter. NRaleighLiberal Nov 2015 #4
Conducted by one of the most reputable polling firms in the country. DCBob Nov 2015 #23
You might want to read this thread: think Nov 2015 #5
They don't care. beam me up scottie Nov 2015 #36
Despite the "Bernie poll police" this poll has been pretty much verified by the CBS poll.. DCBob Nov 2015 #7
Incorrect, the CBS poll had extremely different results, not verified but contradicted. Bluenorthwest Nov 2015 #10
They both showed huge wins for Hillary... winning by 3 TDS or 6 TDS is still a big win regardless. DCBob Nov 2015 #13
One shows a win twice as large. The one set of numbers does not confirm the other. Bluenorthwest Nov 2015 #25
Polls are never going to match up exactly... everyone knows that. DCBob Nov 2015 #34
Link... let's see what that says about methadology. Agnosticsherbet Nov 2015 #8
Ummmmmmmmmmm....no. Hepburn Nov 2015 #9
No. The pre-selection was for people that planned to watch the debates hack89 Nov 2015 #11
They were pre-selected by a Hillary pac... Hepburn Nov 2015 #14
No. They were pre-selected by a reputable polling company. hack89 Nov 2015 #15
That doesnt change the fact that PPP poll is from a Hillary superpac run by David Brock. You cant litlbilly Nov 2015 #21
So what? hack89 Nov 2015 #22
You really think they care about their reputation? Don't think so. David Brock is a smear litlbilly Nov 2015 #31
So you have nothing. Got it. Nt hack89 Nov 2015 #32
Here's the link ucrdem Nov 2015 #18
They didn't publish the prescreening questions, so we have no idea what they asked. jeff47 Nov 2015 #44
they were pre-screened bkkyosemite Nov 2015 #17
" as planning to watch the debate and willing to give their opinions about it afterward." ucrdem Nov 2015 #20
We don't know that. One of the problems with not publishing your screening questions jeff47 Nov 2015 #45
the WSJ/Google poll is very legit demwing Nov 2015 #24
This wasn't a good poll per a statistical analyst who supports Hillary: beam me up scottie Nov 2015 #26
Yes but where's the evidence? ucrdem Nov 2015 #27
Read through the thread, the results were bought and paid for by Hillary's super PAC. beam me up scottie Nov 2015 #28
I did but found no evidence that the poll was rigged. ucrdem Nov 2015 #29
I kicked the thread so you can take it up with the expert. beam me up scottie Nov 2015 #30
Thanks, but I was looking for evidence. nt ucrdem Nov 2015 #33
She has none. DCBob Nov 2015 #37
Well . . . ucrdem Nov 2015 #38
I prefer to take that Hillary supporter's word over yours. beam me up scottie Nov 2015 #39
I think he wrote that before the CBS poll came out. DCBob Nov 2015 #40
Two different polls. beam me up scottie Nov 2015 #42
Yes, but both have Hillary up big. DCBob Nov 2015 #43
The evidence is in PPP's report. jeff47 Nov 2015 #46
Okay but you've cited no evidence that the PPP poll is irregular, rigged, or otherwise unreliable ucrdem Nov 2015 #48
Uh, yeah. I did. Again, it's in their own report. jeff47 Nov 2015 #50
You'd need to support your reading which is to say the least solipsistic. nt ucrdem Nov 2015 #51
Because PPP suddenly forgot how to write up reports on their own polls? jeff47 Nov 2015 #52
Because it's a self-serving opinion, not evidence of anything. nt ucrdem Nov 2015 #53
I expect to hear from many who just don't like polls unless beanies on top FloridaBlues Nov 2015 #35
You better go tell this Clinton supporter and statistician that he's wrong. jeff47 Nov 2015 #47
You wasted a lot of typing. Bullcrap poll. Your friends the billionaires will do anything to win. rhett o rick Nov 2015 #41
It was paid for by Hillary to make her look good. It's not a credible poll. jfern Nov 2015 #49
You should read some of the comments on this poll d_legendary1 Nov 2015 #54
Does anyone know the prescreening questions they used to select the 510 voters? peacebird Nov 2015 #55
Yes I do. coyote Nov 2015 #56
;) peacebird Nov 2015 #58
Oh, we can let the Sanders supporters fantasize. Super Tuesday will be here soon enough. n/t Lil Missy Nov 2015 #57
 

Weidman

(71 posts)
3. Bad poll.
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 09:01 PM
Nov 2015

Sponsored by Correct the Record. Therefore, a pro-Clinton poll. Suspect candidate rotation, handpicked poll, methodology all wrong.

 

litlbilly

(2,227 posts)
6. Who are you guys trying to convince by repeating this pro-Hillary poll from a Hillary superpac?
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 09:09 PM
Nov 2015

David Brock can't hide from this. We will just hit back every time you try and use these useless polls. If it wasn't so completely out of whack, maybe some normal people would believe it. I doubt it tho.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
23. Conducted by one of the most reputable polling firms in the country.
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 09:32 PM
Nov 2015

It hard to imagine PPP would risk their credibility by purposely falsifying data to please one client.

 

Bluenorthwest

(45,319 posts)
10. Incorrect, the CBS poll had extremely different results, not verified but contradicted.
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 09:16 PM
Nov 2015

PPP showed twice the lead for Hillary as CBS. That is not 'pretty much verified' that's shown to be bogus and bought.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
13. They both showed huge wins for Hillary... winning by 3 TDS or 6 TDS is still a big win regardless.
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 09:21 PM
Nov 2015

If you want an explanation for the difference I suspect it was due to the CBS poll including Independents whereas the PPP poll did not.

The point is Bernie lost and lost big.

 

Bluenorthwest

(45,319 posts)
25. One shows a win twice as large. The one set of numbers does not confirm the other.
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 09:34 PM
Nov 2015

Had the entire result been 'she won, Bernie second, Martin third' then it would be confirming their results, but PPP had numbers which were very different from CBS's.
So yeah, she won the polling but that does not confirm the PPP results. They were bullshit.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
34. Polls are never going to match up exactly... everyone knows that.
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 09:50 PM
Nov 2015

Its always generalizations and trends that we look at to confirm results. Clearly these two polls show big wins for Hillary. That's good enough for me.

Hepburn

(21,054 posts)
9. Ummmmmmmmmmm....no.
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 09:12 PM
Nov 2015

This is a poll which is from a Clinton Super Pac and the respondents were pre-selected because they were Clinton supporters.

hack89

(39,171 posts)
11. No. The pre-selection was for people that planned to watch the debates
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 09:19 PM
Nov 2015

Absolutely no evidence that they were Hillary supporters.

Hepburn

(21,054 posts)
14. They were pre-selected by a Hillary pac...
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 09:21 PM
Nov 2015

...and they over-whelming thought she won. She bombed...big time.

hack89

(39,171 posts)
15. No. They were pre-selected by a reputable polling company.
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 09:24 PM
Nov 2015

You are not helping Bernie by spreading such nonsense.

 

litlbilly

(2,227 posts)
21. That doesnt change the fact that PPP poll is from a Hillary superpac run by David Brock. You cant
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 09:28 PM
Nov 2015

get around that no matter how you spin it.

hack89

(39,171 posts)
22. So what?
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 09:32 PM
Nov 2015

Can you show that PPP risked their professional reputation by skewing the results? That is the question- time to present something more than unsubstantiated accusations. Have any real facts?

 

litlbilly

(2,227 posts)
31. You really think they care about their reputation? Don't think so. David Brock is a smear
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 09:43 PM
Nov 2015

pro who used to work for republicans. Look it up

jeff47

(26,549 posts)
44. They didn't publish the prescreening questions, so we have no idea what they asked.
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 10:45 PM
Nov 2015

Also, 100% of their sample watched the debate. Absolutely no one had something come up?

Finally, you'll note they did not describe how they obtained a random sample. So either PPP has suddenly forgotten how to publish a report on polling, or they did not have a random sample.

ucrdem

(15,512 posts)
20. " as planning to watch the debate and willing to give their opinions about it afterward."
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 09:28 PM
Nov 2015
PP interviewed 510 Democratic primary voters nationally by telephone after the debate who had been pre-screened on Thursday and Friday as planning to watch the debate and willing to give their opinions about it afterward. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.3%. This research was conducted on behalf of Correct The Record.


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/DemocraticPostDebatePoll111415.pdf

jeff47

(26,549 posts)
45. We don't know that. One of the problems with not publishing your screening questions
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 10:46 PM
Nov 2015

is we have no idea what actually was in the prescreening.

You'll also note they didn't get a random sample...

 

demwing

(16,916 posts)
24. the WSJ/Google poll is very legit
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 09:33 PM
Nov 2015

Google Consumer Surveys was the 2nd most accurate pollsters of the 2014 election, according to Nate Silver:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/10/which-polls-fared-best-and-worst-in-the-2012-presidential-race/?_r=0

Among the nine polling firms that conducted their polls wholly or partially online, the average error in calling the election result was 2.1 percentage points. That compares with a 3.5-point error for polling firms that used live telephone interviewers, and 5.0 points for “robopolls” that conducted their surveys by automated script. The traditional telephone polls had a slight Republican bias on the whole, while the robopolls often had a significant Republican bias. (Even the automated polling firm Public Policy Polling, which often polls for liberal and Democratic clients, projected results that were slightly more favorable for Mr. Romney than what he actually achieved.) The online polls had little overall bias, however.

<snip>
Perhaps it won’t be long before Google, not Gallup, is the most trusted name in polling.

beam me up scottie

(57,349 posts)
28. Read through the thread, the results were bought and paid for by Hillary's super PAC.
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 09:39 PM
Nov 2015

I could care less about polls regarding debates but it just seems hypocritical that the same people who crapped all over Bernie supporters for linking to "unscientific" polls would want to be consistent.

Proceed.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
37. She has none.
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 09:56 PM
Nov 2015

Just in denial about her fav candidate losing the debate.

The PPP poll was pretty much verified by the CBS poll which also had Hillary up big.

beam me up scottie

(57,349 posts)
39. I prefer to take that Hillary supporter's word over yours.
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 10:06 PM
Nov 2015

They seem to know what they're talking about while you don't even know what gender I am.





DCBob

(24,689 posts)
40. I think he wrote that before the CBS poll came out.
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 10:07 PM
Nov 2015

I suspect he might change his opinion.

Sorry for misgendering you! Corrected.

beam me up scottie

(57,349 posts)
42. Two different polls.
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 10:09 PM
Nov 2015

Like I said, I don't care which you prefer but this one was paid for by a super PAC.


DCBob

(24,689 posts)
43. Yes, but both have Hillary up big.
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 10:12 PM
Nov 2015

Which leads me to think they are both correct.. in that Hillary won the debate.

jeff47

(26,549 posts)
46. The evidence is in PPP's report.
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 10:53 PM
Nov 2015

1) The report doesn't say how they got a random sample. Which means they didn't get one. The alternative is PPP suddenly forgot how to publish a poling report, which is just a wee bit unlikely.

2) They didn't publish the prescreening questions. So we have no idea what the prescreening actually entailed.

3) 100% of their sample watched the debate. Absolutely no one had something come up? This reinforces the problems with #1 and #2.

4) Shitty methodology: When you list candidates in a question, you're supposed to rotate the names. There's a bias for the first name listed, so you rotate to remove that bias.

5) Sponsored polls allow the sponsor to create the methodology. So Correct the Record decided how to run this poll, not PPP.

6) It's a 100% landline poll.

All of this is in PPP's own report, if you actually read beyond the summary.

ucrdem

(15,512 posts)
48. Okay but you've cited no evidence that the PPP poll is irregular, rigged, or otherwise unreliable
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 11:03 PM
Nov 2015

beyond what someone says on the internet. But thanks for giving it the ol' college try!

jeff47

(26,549 posts)
50. Uh, yeah. I did. Again, it's in their own report.
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 11:04 PM
Nov 2015

What evidence do you need beyond them admitting to it?

jeff47

(26,549 posts)
52. Because PPP suddenly forgot how to write up reports on their own polls?
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 11:09 PM
Nov 2015

Seriously, you could just reply with "LALALALALA I CAN'T HEAR YOU!!" and make as much sense.

Show me where they actually got a random sample.
Show me the prescreening questions and the answers they got to those questions
Show me Correct the Record didn't pay for it.

I understand you are very fond of the results. But that doesn't make a sponsored poll accurate.

While you're at it, you better go tell this Clinton supporter and statistician that he's also full of shit for saying the poll is bad: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251810541

FloridaBlues

(4,007 posts)
35. I expect to hear from many who just don't like polls unless beanies on top
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 09:50 PM
Nov 2015

Well he's fading fast sorry reality check is coming soon.
He looked out of his eliment on the debate stage. Just repeating his talking points with minimal follow up tunes people out.
Just my humble option

 

rhett o rick

(55,981 posts)
41. You wasted a lot of typing. Bullcrap poll. Your friends the billionaires will do anything to win.
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 10:07 PM
Nov 2015

But I am guessing you know that and that's why you chose their side. But some how, the People will prevail.

d_legendary1

(2,586 posts)
54. You should read some of the comments on this poll
Sun Nov 15, 2015, 11:43 PM
Nov 2015
"The same percentage of people who think Hillary won the debate plan on voting for her? Yeah that sounds wrong."

"I clicked your poll itself- this is very telling. "PPP interviewed 510 Democratic primary voters nationally by telephone after the debate
who had been pre-screened on Thursday and Friday as planning to watch the debate and willing to give their opinions about it afterward. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.3%. This research was conducted on behalf of Correct The Record. "

"Were these people watching the same debate?"

"Jim Daniels, you are correct that online polls are not scientific polls. But if you think people are voting multiple times in the online polls, maybe you don't know much about online polling, because the polls only let each IP address vote once, and very few people are going to mess around with proxy servers just to try to skew the results. I also wonder whether you meant the MLB All-Star Game voting rather than the Hall of Fame. Also, when a poll is carried out "on behalf of", i.e. paid for by, a Clinton SuperPAC, that doesn't seem like a legitimate cause for suspicion to you?"


peacebird

(14,195 posts)
55. Does anyone know the prescreening questions they used to select the 510 voters?
Mon Nov 16, 2015, 02:22 PM
Nov 2015

PPP interviewed 510 Democratic primary voters nationally by telephone after the debate who had been pre-screened on Thursday and Friday as planning to watch the debate and willing to give their opinions about it afterward. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.3%. This research was conducted on behalf of Correct The Record.

 

coyote

(1,561 posts)
56. Yes I do.
Mon Nov 16, 2015, 03:01 PM
Nov 2015

Question 1: Are you a Hillary supporter?
Question 2|: if yes, would you like to participate in our poll? if not, goodbye.

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