2015 isn't 2007. True, in 2007 Clinton had +7% net favorable and now she has -11% net unfavorable

[Attorney in Texas]

Last edited Sat Dec 5, 2015, 04:39 PM - Edit history (3)

ratings in the polls.

Current favorable/unfavorable polling: Clinton has a 41% favorable poll rating and 52% unfavorable poll rating (for a -11% net unfavorable rating).

Historic favorable/unfavorable polling: Clinton had a 52% favorable poll rating and a 45% unfavorable poll rating (for a +7% net favorable rating) in Nov. 2007.

Meanwhile, Sanders has a net positive favorable rating (+4%) that is 15% better than Clinton's net negative (-11%) rating.

For those who keep insisting 2007 isn't 2015 -- NO SHIT; WE'VE NOTICED.

[Attorney in Texas]

1. Top words associated with Clinton in 2007: "tough" and "smart." In 2011, it's "liar" and "dishonest"

Here is what voters thought of Hillary Clinton in 2007:



Here is what voters think of Hillary Clinton now:

[Cali_Democrat]

2. So why is Bernie struggling so much against someone who is -11% net favorable?

He's supposedly leading a political revolution according to his many supporters, yet he's down 30+ points in many national polls to someone who's so unfavorable.

Some revolution.

[Attorney in Texas]

3. Maybe it is the result of her SuperPAC, maybe it's because she's the ultimate party insider, maybe

it's because we're only in November and she doesn't collapse in the race until January (like she has, historically speaking). Who knows?

[ibegurpard]

6. Because Democrats are collectively sticking their fingers in their ears

And marching full speed ahead to an electoral disaster.

[Cali_Democrat]

10. LOL...attack Democratic primary voters

Brilliant strategy and will surely lead to total victory.

[Attorney in Texas]

11. Democratic primary voters are not part of the equation until February -- maybe Clinton should let

them vote before her supporters crown her.

[Cali_Democrat]

12. Democratic primary voters are the ones that are being polled

When I said Hillary is up about 30 points right now, I'm referring to polls where the organizations are surveying primary voters.

[Attorney in Texas]

13. No. Some polls seek the opinions of adults, some polls seek the opinions of registered voters, and

some polls seek the opinions of likely voters. No polls taken months before the first primary is a poll of primary voters.

You may be thinking of an exit poll which is a poll of primary voters. You will hear a lot about exit polls in February.

[sabrina 1]

22. He isn't struggling SHE is. HE is gaining supporters. Going from 3% among Dems to ten times

that amount and it's only been a few months? THAT is called GAINING! She otoh, USED to poll at over 80%! Where is she now and falling? Barely making 50%, and that's just among Dems. Who are not reflected in those polls are Bernie supporters in open primary states who don't have to register as Dems AND newly registered Dems for Bernie who don't own landlines are not being countred AT ALL.

Those polls mean nothing. Bernie's base is from across the political spectrum, Hillary's has practically no crossover appeal.

[Cali_Democrat]

23. Is your caps lock button broken? LOL.

Don't worry....Bernie is winning all 50 states, remember?

[ThePhilosopher04]

4. Clinton is unelectable.

[Attorney in Texas]

8. I think Sanders and Clinton are both electable. I just take offense at those who are wrongheadedly

declaring victory when the first votes are still months away from being cast.

If Clinton and her supporters want to win (the primary and the general election), they should be touting the advantages of her policies and not popping champagne corks at their victory party.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Here

If Clinton and her supporters want to win (the primary and the general election), they should be touting the advantages of her policies and not popping champagne corks at their victory party.

Here. Are you talking about here?


I believe if I could learn to speak Arabic I would have a better chance of disabusing ISIS members of their hatred for the west than convincing Hillary and Bernie supporters to switch allegiances.

People don't come here to listen. They come here to tell.

Sure, one can point to the occasional person here who has switched allegiance just as one can point to the occasional person who leaves ISIS.

[sabrina 1]

24. Here are some stats for you which might help you understand why we on the Left

don't fall for the 'terror' propaganda. Well first let's just get it out of the way, WE are in THEIR countries, thanks Cheney/Bush, killing THEIR people. For 15 years now. The Great War on Terror, which involved mostlly KILLING PEOPLE, had obviously FAILED.

But worse than that, nearly 800 American Citizens have been murdered/killed by their OWN CIVILIAN POLICE since Jan of this YEAR.

Americans killed here by ISIS? 0!

We have some pretty serious problems right here. I call those statistics UNACCEPTABLE.

You want us to go all Fox propaganda, warmongered into supporting MORE War for Profit? No, never, because the way to handle terrorism is NOT with bombs and a military response. If people can't see that NOW after 15 years and trillions of dollars later, not to mention all the people we have KILLED, over one million and more, all the TORTURE, the theft of resources???

I can't believe you ever expected anyone here to fall for what so many fell for 15 years ago. We didn't fall for it then, now we have proof of WHY, we sure won't fall for it now.

[JaneyVee]

5. Obama's favorables were underwater most of 2008 and 2012.

[Attorney in Texas]

7. You are mistaken. Obama's net favorables were positive in 2008 (around +25%) and 2012 (from

+18% to +2%, never negative).

[brooklynite]

9. Now all he has to do is convince people to vote for him...

[Attorney in Texas]

16. Good thing we have set aside the next ten weeks for that process. That's how the primaries work: (1)

first we persuade voters, (2) second we vote, (3) third we declare a victor.

Some folks want to skip steps (1) and (2) and move right on to the coronation.

[brooklynite]

17. Fair point...except that the clock started back in May...

...and so far, it appears that Clinton is doing a better job at 1) and will have a larger share of 2) so we might be able to declare 3) by March-April.

[Attorney in Texas]

18. In 2007-08, Clinton was CRUSHING and Obama was flat until January. Sanders has been rising (more

steadily than Obama did in 2007) and Clinton's 2011 support has been more erratic than her support in 2007:

2007:



2011:





You can say "the clock started in May," but the clock does not start until February 1. There is plenty of time for a premature victory lap to fuck up Clinton's campaign again this time, too.

You should be promoting her policies rather than her inevitability.

[brooklynite]

20. Where was Clinton relative to the 50% line in 2008? Where is she today?

As to "promoting her policies", I have in the past: today I do it in the real world where it makes a difference. It's fairly obvious that attempting to change minds here is a hopeless undertaking.

[Attorney in Texas]

25. In 2008 people started voting and she lost. Ask again where she is in 2012 when people start voting.

[brooklynite]

26. In 2008 people started voting and she got as many votes as Barack Obama (18 M each)

Bernie Sanders is a nice guy; but from the point of view of organization, funding and political support he's not Barack Obama.

But feel free to show me where I'm wrong. Set aside emotional appeals and "the only poll that counts is the one on election day" platitudes and tell me what share of the vote he's going to get and which States he's going to win.

[Attorney in Texas]

29. Oh, I thought Obama won in 2008. I guess I'll have to google that. It is not a platitude to say "the

only poll that counts is the one on election day." It is a statement that you cannot call a race based on polling ten weeks before the first vote is cast.

The truth is that Sanders is doing better in Iowa and New Hampshire than Obama was doing at this point in 2007 (Sanders is also doing considerably better in national polling than Obama 2007, but national polling is not very informative).

If Sanders wins Iowa and New Hampshire (or comes close in Iowa and wins New Hampshire), then those results will have a significant effect on post-New Hampshire primaries -- that is a historically documentable phenomenon.

The Clinton campaign would be better served by stopping the premature coronation victory lap celebrations and starting to campaign on the issues. If you think she has already won the primary, then she should be campaigning on the general election issues. If you think she still needs to secure a primary victory, then she should be campaigning on the primary election issues. In either event, campaigning on the issues suits her campaign better than the drumbeat of inevitability and coronation.

[jfern]

32. In a 2 way matchup, she led Obama 59-32 in November 2007

[ibegurpard]

33. Goodness!

Those numbers sure look familiar!

[Attorney in Texas]

35. Not only are the numbers familiar, the "crown her NOW" posts seems word-for-word similar

[99Forever]

15. But it's HER turn dammit!

Besides. She's a SHE.

[Attorney in Texas]

30. I keep forgetting

[WillyT]

19. HUGE K & R !!! - THANK YOU !!!

[Juicy_Bellows]

21. KICK

Great posts, these are things to pay attention to!

[in_cog_ni_to]

27. OOPS! Minor little glitch - no one likes her!

Could it possibly be:

Her support of FRACKING?
Her support of PRISONS FOR PROFITS?
Her IWR VOTE?
Her penchant for WAR, WAR, WAR and more WAR?
HER support of TPP?
Her support for the XL PIPELINE?
Her NON-support of a $15 minimum wage?
Her NON-support for MEDICARE FOR ALL?
Her NON-support for STATE UNIVERSITY education for all?
Her BFF'S on WALL ST.?
Her CORPORATE owners buying her for future favors?

Take-your-pick! There's so many to choose from.

[Jarqui]

28. I'll agree that 2007 isn't 2011 but it isn't 2015 either

Hillary did well for herself in 2008 and when she signed on as Secretary of State, folks thought very favorably of her. In early 2013, nearly six months after the Benghazi attack, she resigned as Secretary of State and folks still thought highly of her - as the chart shows.

Her favorability took a hit when the House started attacking her on Benghazi and her emails (and they never really found anything in terms of wrong doing).

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/09/30/mccarthy-connects-clinton-poll-drop-with-house-benghazi-probe/

House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R., Calif.), expected to be elevated to the House speakership, said that a panel formed to investigate the 2012 Benghazi attacks had caused Hillary Clinton’s approval rating to sink and was a model for the ways conservatives might “fight and win” in the future.

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/09/30/mccarthy-connects-clinton-poll-drop-with-house-benghazi-probe/

"Everybody though Hillary Clinton was unbeatable, right?" McCarthy asked. "But we put together a Benghazi special committee, a select committee. What are her numbers today? Her numbers are dropping.

Now, I'm a supporter of Bernie's but let's not forget how we got here.

The Supreme Court and Jeb Bush see to it that Al Gore loses (don't count all the votes) 2000
Bush sucks the US into the Iraq war with lies
John Kerry gets swiftboated with lies in 2004
Obama gets whacked with Kenyan and Muslim and a whole bunch of other lies ... but survives it.
And once again, these mothers have damaged Hillary with lies

These guys talk about wanting their country back and how tough they are. But the only way they seem to win an argument is lie or throw massive amounts of money at it to buy what they want. The idea of democracy was that the ideas prevailed based upon the will of the people on the merits of the ideas. But these jackasses continue to circumvent that with deceit and dirty dealing. It's un-democratic. It will never bring their country back because never in it's history was the country this unfair or dishonest when it came to this stuff. And it's a filthy disgrace hurting most Americans badly.

To defeat this once and for all, a Democrat is needed in the White House along with Democrat majorities in the House and Senate. The Democrat in the White House can stock up the Supreme Court and the House and Senate can get rid of Citizens United and some of this other garbage that infects the Washington politics.

Lots of folks around here have known the above for years.

I'm for Bernie. I like Bernie. I'm more closely aligned to his positions. Hillary's way ahead in the polls. It would be easier to take Bernie losing if I had some comfort Hillary was going to win. But I don't have that comfort. These guys hurt her with the Benghazi-email stuff and they'll hurt her some more with lies and deception when she's selected. I don't feel like lying down and taking it. I'm frustrated. Sorry for the rant.

[ibegurpard]

31. the ammunition they need to hurt her

Has been given to them by HER. And she's given no one a reason to defend her except she's not THEM. It's a slow-motion train wreck and the drivers are insisting we are still on the track.

[Betty Karlson]

34. Thanks for pointing this out. eom