Democratic Race Heats Up As Bernie Sanders Gains 10 Points On Hillary Clinton

[stupidicus]

“There is overwhelming evidence from practically every public poll that Bernie Sanders is gaining ground and making progress in the Democratic primary,” said Ben Tolchin, Sanders’ pollster. “In fact, he is doing better against Hillary Clinton than Barack Obama was doing against Clinton at this stage of the campaign,” added Tolchin, citing a recent Gallup poll.

What the national polls do indicate is that the more Democrats get to know Sen. Sanders the more they like him. These polls are also good news for the national movement that Sanders is trying to build. Democratic voters like his message. Beyond the 2016 primary, Bernie Sanders has a chance to build a popular movement that could change the country.
http://www.politicususa.com/2015/11/22/democratic-race-heats-bernie-sanders-gains-10-points-hillary-clinton.html

This can't possibly be right can it?

[peacebird]

1. Yes, yes it can! #FeelTheBern

[riversedge]

127. Sanders is getting burned: Hillary up in 2 polls and Sanders losing 9pts in NH**

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=1268915

[lewebley3]

131. The race hasn't changed in much in mth: It only changed when GOP got away

with the New York times lies.

[DCBob]

2. I guess Ben isn't aware of the polls in Iowa, NH, SC...

[BootinUp]

4. I don't think he is aware that

59% > 50% either.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Snort

[DCBob]

12. Or that if a candidate is polling over 50% its very likely that candidate is going to win.

[merrily]

28. Breaking (on November 16, 2007) Hillary Clinton has strong 27 point lead over Obama!

http://www.gallup.com/poll/102799/clinton-sustains-huge-lead-democratic-nomination-race.aspx

Other candidates, including Edwards, cumulatively had more points than O'Malley or her lead may have been even greater.

Time will tell.

[DCBob]

39. Those are national numbers and mean very little. Lets compare Iowa Nov 2007 to Iowa Nov 2015.

In 2007 it was very close... today Hillary is way ahead.

Nov 16, 2007:


Nov 16, 2015

[merrily]

42. And Obama had clinched NH until he lost it. As I said, time will tell.

[DCBob]

62. But according to most, Bernie needs to win both Iowa and NH to have any chance at all of winning.

Based on current polling in Iowa looks like a big win for Hillary and you cant fall back on what happened in 2007 to help make a case that Bernie still has a chance there. Sorry but its a fantasy thinking what happened in 2007 has any bearing on what is going to happen this primary season.

[Walk away]

73. That is what makes this OP the gem it is!!!!

It's like the Producers! Bernie will somehow win when his opponent is at 59% because he will what????? go to 60%????? Because there is 119% of the vote to split???

It's interesting the way the extreme left seem to use the same math as the extreme right.

[redstateblues]

85. I love it! a bunch of happy talk.

If someone says Bernie is winning the BS supporters come out of the DU cave and start celebrating, regardless of the facts.

[sabrina 1]

107. The news for Bernie is good EVERY SINGLE DAY. Right from the beginning it's been nothing

but positive news for his campaign. So your snide comment has zero bearing on those who want some big changes in this country before it's too late.

[humbled_opinion]

100. Extreme left ?

What is that? are you by your own admission stating that Hillary leans right, or that she is not Progressive, what are so extreme about the "extreme left", fair pay, equality, those are extreme now? Not that I would be surprised by that revelation, just that one of her supporters actually admits it.

[Beartracks]

113. I noticed that, too.

Holding traditional Democratic party values is now "extreme left"... even to some Democrats.

I simply find it odd that so many Democrats here snidely refer to Bernie supporters as the "extreme left."

Remember when focusing on social justice was something all DUers thought would be a great thing? Now it's just "unicorns" and "rainbows"?

=================

[BootinUp]

117. Just guessing: Extreme left could mean people that think a Democratic-Socialist can win

the Presidency of the US in 2016. Its probably not a term I would use though.

[Plucketeer]

105. Yeah, yeah, yeah...

Three MONTHS plus, out. Come back and crow at three DAYS out.

[sabrina 1]

108. Actually, getting back to FACT rather than FICTION, it's more like the 2008 election

where we constantly saw comments such as yours and Obama's supporters were from the 'extreme Left' also. Thanks, considering the rightward swing of our own party over the past couple of decades, anything left of Cheney seems to be extreme.

Count me as a proud extreme left supporter of the best candidate we've had for a long time.

[tex-wyo-dem]

111. "Extreme left", eh?

I think you are on the wrong website.

[bread_and_roses]

128. There is no "extreme left" in the US - even on this board

Every time I see "extreme" or "hard" left referenced here it makes me laugh out loud. I don't see "extreme left" views posted even on this board .... if there's a few here or there, I've missed them. Language - words - do have meaning.

[Walk away]

129. To me the extreme left or right will always be the folks that think that....

things are lookin' good when their opponent has 60% of the vote!

[bread_and_roses]

140. Words have meaning.

You don't get to just make up your own - at least if you want to make any sense and and not just spout meaningless jabber. But hey - go right ahead going around saying they mean whatever you say they mean.

[Hissyspit]

52. I think he's probably aware that the convention is a long way off.

[DCBob]

65. Iowa is 10 weeks away.

[Hissyspit]

66. Yes. It is.

[blackspade]

94. I take it you didn't read the article then.

It makes this point clearly.
And who is 'Ben?'

[DCBob]

97. Actually it appears you are the one who didn't read the article.

From the first sentence in the OP...

“There is overwhelming evidence from practically every public poll that Bernie Sanders is gaining ground and making progress in the Democratic primary,” said Ben Tolchin, Sanders’ pollster.

[blackspade]

99. I thought you were talking about the author. My bad.

This was the passage I thought you were missing:

The big red flag in these polls is that they are national. National polls are not good predictive indicators in primary elections. Primaries are a series of state by state elections, and when the Democratic race is broken down by state, Hillary Clinton has a commanding lead.

[AlbertCat]

110. I take it you didn't read the article then.

Last edited Mon Nov 23, 2015, 03:15 PM - Edit history (1)

Exactly.

It's about trends, not snapshots.

[Plucketeer]

106. I think A LOT of folks

are pumping adrenaline that would be better spent three days or even three WEEKS out from Iowa. When Sanders starts to steam roller to the nomination, it'll really be interesting to see what sort of squeals and screams come from the Hillarites!

[99th_Monkey]

3. Wow! Who knew?

This Primary is FAR from over folks. The more Bernie opens his mouth, the more he trends,
and -- and despite all the Clinton clamor about how 'unbeatable' she is -- it doesn't trend
in a way that favors Her Presumptuousness in the long run.

Please Bernie! keep it up!!!! Let's do this thing!!

[INdemo]

21. Well said..and Welcome to DU

[merrily]

43. Welcome. If you have not already done so, check out the Sanders Group!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=forum&id=1280

[stupidicus]

44. I'm inclined to agree

about it not being over just yet.

A lot can happen between now and the first primary vote.

[firebrand80]

6. Breaking News: Sanders Still Getting Plastered

but not quite as badly. If all goes well, he may last until Super Tuesday.

[Vincardog]

10. Keep believing and we will keep helping people feel the Burnie.

[JonLeibowitz]

30. You don't actually think the parent poster is a Bernie supporter?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. Reminds me when Tojo told the Japanese people the Imperial Japanese Army...

Reminds me when Tojo told the Japanese people the Imperial Japanese Army was consolidating its victories in the Summer of 1945.

[bvar22]

15. It reminds me of 2008.

I guess my memory doesn't go back as far as yours.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. It doesn't remind me of 2008 at all...

How confident is DemocratSinceBirth ?


He is so confident of Madame Secretary's imminent victory that he is willing to eat the most disgusting thing imaginable and put it on youtube If Hillary Clinton loses the primary as long as the person who takes the wager promises to do the same if his or her candidate loses.

[bvar22]

18. That bluster is immaterial.

Bernie is AHEAD of where Obama was at this time in 2008,
and Bernie is gaining fast.
You can not deny the trend, nor the data from 2008.

[brooklynite]

19. Bernie is ahead of where Obama was...but Clinton is ahead of where Clinton was...

...by about 20 points. See the problem there?

[firebrand80]

25. lol @ "gaining fast"

[DemocratSinceBirth]

37. It has nothing to do with bluster and everything to do with the fact

It has nothing to do with bluster and everything to do with the fact that I am willing to put action to my belief that Hillary will beat Bernie...

I can cite the polls, the predictions markets, and the betting markets but to no avail... I obviously believe my candidate will win and you don't. That's why you won't take my challenge.

This isn't 2008 and Bernie isn't a proxy for Barack. That's empirically obvious.

[Scootaloo]

40. Where will you get hákarl at this time of year?

[artislife]

75. Roll eyes.

This is not Survivor.

[George II]

57. Bernard Sanders doesn't remind me of Barack Obama in the least.

[Art_from_Ark]

141. Tojo resigned in August 1944

[hedda_foil]

47. Oh look at your nice new Third Way logo.

Interesting, because Third Way is scarcely the province of firebrand.

[Dragonfli]

87. A more honest version

[Dragonfli]

86. Stale right wing thinking made fresh by third way

[Vincardog]

7. Feel the Burnie

[tritsofme]

8. All is fine. Sanders continues to dominate polls and lead the race. He will be the next president

I mean, have you seen Facebook/Twitter?1?! Come on!

[Historic NY]

51. LOL......

[stupidicus]

54. indeed that was some pretty hysterical stuff

and likely all the wit they have in'em

[SunSeeker]

132. ...

[moobu2]

9. Says a desperate Bernie Sanders worshipper.

[NurseJackie]

14. A titillating headline, but just another way of saying that Sanders is 24 points behind.

[Owl]

26. Is such drama necessary with your pic?

[NurseJackie]

27. I hate yawning photos too. They always make me yawn. Even the word "yawn" makes me want to yawn.

Here's one that's less "dramatic" and more adorable.


(Are you yawning yet? Was it the photos, or the topic.)

[stupidicus]

32. that's just a measure of their ______

which has always been less than shockingly low

[Unknown Beatle]

31. Showing your lack of interest in the OP

by posting a pic of a guy yawning had the opposite effect by you posting it to begin with.

[NurseJackie]

81. Oh dear! Don't jump to conclusions.

It appears that you've misjudged and misdiagnosed the effect you think I wanted. Yawning was commentary on the premise, not a desire to see the thread die. Many amusing threads NEED to be kicked for exposure.

Why do you assume I wanted it to die? I hide the threads I want to "die" or that I have no interest in. They'll either die a quick and natural death, or they'll survive without my knowing about them. Either way, win/win.

And if it made someone YAWN uncontrollably, then that's kind of cool too. (Yawns are contagious.) Try not to yawn. You're thinking about it, don't do it, here it comes. YAWN! No? You stopped yourself? Almost. Oh well, next time.

[Unknown Beatle]

91. I didn't write anything that suggested you wanted the thread to die.

You're assuming that's what I meant.

What I meant was that by showing disinterest (yawning) you showed anything but disinterest by posting. A person that's truly disinterested will not bother posting anything.

That's it, I'm done. Good night.

[NurseJackie]

92. Thanks for the clarification. As you can see, I am very interested in watching this thread. :-)

[bvar22]

16. 2008 Redux!

The more Democrats hear Bernie, the better they like him.
This is precisely WHY DWS (DINO, Fla.) and the DNC have scheduled few and inconvenient "debates".
They learned in 2008 to keep Hillary OFF the public stage and out of view.

[MissDeeds]

23. Exactly

If they thought HRC was a stellar candidate, they would want to showcase her in prime time at every opportunity. They know she doesn't do well in debates and is vulnerable, so they want to keep her out of the limelight.

That speaks volumes to Hillary's vulnerability , not only in the primaries, but the general election as well.

[stupidicus]

33. yep

some products sell themselves and the most buyers in this case have never seen this one

[TryLogic]

20. I think we should be talking about who would make the best president rather than polls.

Who has consistently shown good judgment? (Versus who has exhibited bad judgment - more than once?)

Who has consistently demonstrated high levels of integrity?

Who is more honest?

Who has fewer (if any) conflicts of interest?

Who can inspire the nation and lead in a direction that is good for all of us?

Who can communicate effectively with Congress, even crazy Republicans? (Versus who has declared that Republicans are her favorite enemy?)

[BootinUp]

29. Based on your comments I have deduced

that you probably support Bernie Sanders. I am not advocating an increased discussion of polls, and I do find your list interesting. But, what the list basically says to me is that like most Americans, you do not trust politicians any farther than you can throw them, and you want to pick someone who you believe in, fine.

Everyone probably thinks they read a politicians true motives or sees lies or truth better than everyone else. I think this makes it difficult to use your list as basis for fact based discussion. You see it is my opinion that it is not too difficult to smear politicians and make people believe they do not meet certain standards suggested by your list.

Just my opinion.

[stupidicus]

41. I've been making that case almost since the beginning

Hillarians can't focus too long on things like that, and especially if there are posts like this to drop a turd or two into.

[Dont call me Shirley]

22. I see mostly Bernie bumper stickers, yard signs, pins and tshirts. The runner-up is Carson but by a

margin of 1 Carson to 10 Bernie.

Haven't seen even 1 Hillary, O'Malley, Trump, Bush, Cruz or Rubio.

FEEL THE BERN!

[Ned_Devine]

34. I'm in MA where it doesn't even matter...

...but I still see Bernie signs everywhere. I don't see Hillary stuff anywhere, and I'm on the road a lot all over the south shore.

[stupidicus]

36. too funny

the popularity of him and trump have been the shockers to me this time around.

[Art_from_Ark]

143. The popularity of Bernie is refreshing.

The popularity of Trump is frightening.

[karynnj]

38. Me too!!! But then I live in Burlington, VT - Yet to see a HRC sticker anywhere.

Even from someone visiting!

[Hepburn]

82. I have not seen any Hillary bumper stickers...but quite a few for Bernie

I am in the South Bay area of L.A. County, Calif.

[JimDandy]

84. WA State here. Exact same experience. n/t

[redstateblues]

102. I haven't seen a single Bernie bumper sticker

If Bernie makes it to Super Tuesday he will get crushed in the South

[Dem2]

119. Seeing 10 Carson to 1 Bernie

But yes, those are the only 2 campaigns with visible signage where I am.

[Dont call me Shirley]

133. There must be a large array of fundy churches where you live. Sorry :-(

[Dem2]

134. Strangely, no

Fanatics, yes, but it's just a small number trying to make a big splash by putting a ton of signs in a very visible location.

[stevenleser]

24. Good old Jason Easley. Great columnist, but when he picks sides, he's over the top. nt

[ornotna]

45. I've noticed that same trait with other pundits as well n/t

[Fawke Em]

48. Namely ones on this very board! eom

[Art_from_Ark]

142. Oh, the irony in that post!

[stupidicus]

72. LOL

how could anyone miss that?

[thereismore]

35. Hillary's bump was Biden's dip. The race is still open. Go Bernie! nt

[RichVRichV]

56. That's what I find so funny.

Even the Hillary supporters here knew she was going to get a good bump from Biden deciding to not enter, and yet they tout this bump as if it meant she all of sudden started pulling away. The simple fact is she's had a sizable lead (kept artificially down by including Biden in the polls for a while) and she's been losing ground on that lead for months. All Biden bowing out did was mask that for a while.

She still has the lead and she's still losing ground. The question is can Bernie catch up before he runs out of time.

[OhZone]

46. OHMY! Still clinging to your fairly tale.

Oh well.

[Buzz Clik]

49. Eh? Sorry but that just isn't so.

Sanders hasn't trailed by more than 24 point since late August. He closed the gap to about 19 point in late September and has been sliding ever so slightly ever since. He, still trails by about 24 points when you average all the credible polls.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary

[Jack Rabbit]

50. Who won last week's debate again?

[stupidicus]

53. I could only stand watching the 1st hour

if she actually won it based on the reality of most thinking she did, then I fear even more for my country than I did a few minutes ago.

[Jack Rabbit]

59. Too bad, you missed the best part

Hillary explaining away her close ties to Wall Street was stand up comedy gold.

[stupidicus]

61. well, it was them or the UFC at the time

I recorded it, but my disgust grew after reading about it here the following day, and didn't bother.

It's like watching Faux Views -- bad for the BP...lol

[George II]

55. I don't know what polls those guys are looking at, but.....

Huffington Pollster's numbers are:

October 21 - Clinton 51.1, Sanders 27.0, O'Malley 1.5. Clinton +24.1
November 22 - Clinton 55.2, Sanders 31.1, O'Malley 3.0. Clinton +24.1 (no change)

RealClearPolitic's numbers are:

October 22 - Clinton 47.8, Sanders 25.7, O'Malley 0.4. Clinton +22.1
November 22 - Clinton 55.7, Sanders 30.2, O'Malley 4.4. Clinton +25.5 (up 3.4)

[stupidicus]

58. did a single one of you read the article?

He made it clear what he was referring to with his claims.

According to the ABC News/Washington Post poll, Hillary Clinton has gone from leading Bernie Sanders 56%-22% in October to 59%-35% in November. Support for Sen. Sanders is up thirteen percent, and support for former Sec. of State Clinton has gone up by three percent in the past month. Voters said that the three most important issues in the election are the economy (33%), healthcare (13%), and immigration (10%).

maybe that's why so many confused witless snark for an argument eh?

[Adrahil]

68. The last ABC/Post poll included Biden..... nt

[stupidicus]

70. and?

eom

[Adrahil]

79. and since the Biden voters have been divided up, the race has been pretty static....

You can't use the change in numbers from the last poll as an indication of trend because of that.

[stupidicus]

95. which doesn't change anything

you just made the case that he took most of the Biden support, and that's it

it in no way undermines the authors effort

[George II]

69. Yes I did read it, but it was just justifying a bias (and exaggerating, to boot)

Not that it makes a huge difference, but ABC/Washington Post reports the numbers as 60-34 (vs. 56-22 in October), so that seemingly impressive double-digit "gain" to just 8%. Even the ORIGINAL ABC/Washington Post document has their real numbers in their graph:

http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1173a22016Election.pdf

It amazes me that the writer goes on about Sanders' "gain" even though Clinton went up 4%. Obviously Mr. Easley is biased.

As long as she's above 50.0001 Sanders can gain all his followers want, he'll never catch her.

As for "confused witless snark"? If this was a poker game, you saw my snark and raised it.

[stupidicus]

71. do you often say you don't know what polls people are looking at, but

and then follow with completely contradictory stuff like "Yes I did read it"?

I wasn't referencing you with the snarky snark comment, for starters.

The entire point of the piece is he's growing, even if in spurts like the one relied on here.

None of this requires any bias at all. It just doesn't have the "the fat lady is picking up the mike" quality about it that the Hillarian requires as a reasonable demand for a showing of respect for their current lead in the polls...lol

[George II]

80. Nitpick much? It was a figure of speech (might I dare say rhetorical?)!!!!!!

The fact is, Clinton is WAY ahead in ALL polls and unfortunately those who would like Sanders to win the nomination have reached the point of stretching the truth or maybe even creating it to somehow push him over the finish line in first.

[stupidicus]

96. thanks for conceding your confused/conflicted "thinking"

there's nothing "rhetorical" about "I don't know what polls they are looking at!!!" and "of course I read it" when had you read the article/relevant content, you'd know exactly and only what polls they were looking at.

Nobody's contesting that HC is way ahead in the polls. That's just one of the likely many ways Hillarians misrepresent what BS supporters are saying in the course of their belittlement campaign.

ANd if your effort (and the underlying cause/s for your reading problem) here is common in their ranks, well, it's no mystery why there's such a huge reliance on strawman production and use.

[jeff47]

90. Heavens no!

Reading the article would require them to respond to it instead of making post after post after post after post about how this is unimportant and doesn't matter.

[Adrahil]

60. Judge for yourself....

I personally think the evidence does not support that conclusion.

[Drunken Irishman]

63. Ben is wrong. There is no evidence Sanders is gaining. In fact, he's losing support.

[PoliticalMalcontent]

64. The important thing about the shift in one poll.

Last edited Sun Nov 22, 2015, 10:17 PM - Edit history (1)

You're talking about two polls conducted by the same company using consistent methodology. Comparing polls by different companies is kind of like comparing apples to oranges. This is comparing apples to apples.

It's a national poll which as indicated in the article is less predictive in the primaries than focused state polling, but useful for trajectory nonetheless. While these polls are just a snapshot in time they aren't worth throwing away entirely. I get the feeling the more people find out about Bernie Sanders the more support he will end up with. Meanwhile, Clinton has a somewhat limited ceiling as people know what she is about already. This is somewhat verified by HuffoPo favorability numbers.

HuffPo's favorability ratings circa Mid Nov:

Hillary Clinton
43.2% Favorable
50.5% Unfavorable
-7.3% Net

Bernie Sanders
38.9% Favorable
36.8% Unfavorable
+2.1% Net

Nearly 25% of the electorate has yet to have formed an opinion on Sanders. This leaves much room for growth.

We're still 70+ days from Iowa!

[stupidicus]

67. yep, can I cut and paste this to all the "that's not right" responders....lol

they don't seem to understand that their argument seems to rest on the questionable assumption that the polling averages are accurate, or far more so than the one cited by the author.

I'll just let them.

[humbled_opinion]

101. I am sure the disbelievers

will claim..... "Ain't nobody got time for that"

[Duckfan]

74. I hope Hillary plans on doing this often.

Got this in my e-mail today.


Dear MoveOn member,

This Tuesday, November 24, we're airing the MoveOn 2016 Presidential Forum, featuring questions from MoveOn members and answers from Senator Bernie Sanders and former Governor Martin O'Malley.

We invited all the candidates but, unfortunately, former Secretary Hillary Clinton has so far declined to participate. She's missing an opportunity to speak directly to and energize millions of us in this hugely consequential election—but that won't stop the other candidates from voicing their perspectives on the issues most important to progressives across the country.

Click here to automatically RSVP to watch the MoveOn 2016 Presidential Forum—then make sure your friends know about the forum too.

[stupidicus]

76. I agree completely

and surprised as well. They have what, 4-5M members?

you should top post that if it hasn't been already

[Duckfan]

77. I'm doing this on the fly here..

Doing 2 things at same time. I can't get it to top yes no?

[Persondem]

78. Kool aid for the believers.

He is either delusional, cherry picking or making stuff up. Here's the reality..... ain't no 10 point bump for Sanders to be had.

[PoliticalMalcontent]

89. Please read the article before making claims about delusional/cherry picked/made up data.

"According to the ABC News/Washington Post poll, Hillary Clinton has gone from leading Bernie Sanders 56%-22% in October to 59%-35% in November."

It's based on the ABC News/WaPo poll for October and November. That's a considerable shift considering both polls should have been conducted with the same methodology. Caveats for sample size and all. Can't be bad news for the Sanders campaign in any event.

[Persondem]

121. What do you think cherry picking is?

Choosing one poll that says something that agrees with your preconceived notions. That is exactly what the OP is about. It focuses on one poll and ......

Aggregates that include those polls give a much more accurate picture of trends. If you look at that one poll and factor in MoE that 10 point "bump" could be a 2 point zit.

[PoliticalMalcontent]

125. Fair enough. Suppose that does sound like it could be cherry picking.

[pinebox]

114. Yes there's a 10 point bump for Bernie to be had

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/sanders-gop-steady-terrorism-worries-back-poll/story?id=35337895

[Persondem]

122. Cherry picking one poll doesn't make the case. Aggregates do a much better job of showing trends

Sanders is in the low 30's and Clinton is in the mid 50's. it's been that way for weeks. Undecideds are shrinking fast.

Besides, if you factor in MoE, then a 10 point bump could be only a 2 point wobble.

Have a look at RCP aggregate if you like. They show Clinton expanding her lead in recent days.

[OkSustainAg]

83. My first post here.

I saw that Bernie is in the lead for times man of the year. Both Bernie and O'malley will be at the moveon.org forum on the 24th but Hillary isn't going to attend.

[pacalo]

88. Welcome to DU!

[Amimnoch]

93. No, actually, it isn't right. Mr. Burns climaxed already back in September.

It's just been kinda downhill since then.



Such a sad.. sad photo. Now.. let the deconstruction of science begin. It amuses me much like the climate change science deniers amuse me. Either you believe in science or not.

[stupidicus]

98. here, take it up with this guy

http://www.science20.com/science_20/blog/poll_averaging_was_no_more_accurate_in_2012_than_it_is_now-160070

and bring as many of your flat earther friends as you like or need

or take it to this guy,http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-the-polling-industry-in-stasis-or-in-crisis/ and insist on the 100% "certainty" flat earthers insist upon

Polls of presidential primaries and caucuses are another matter entirely; they haven’t been much good. The average error for presidential primary polls since 2000 has been 7.7 percentage points — about twice as large as for presidential general elections. The polls were especially bad in the 2012 Republican primaries, when they missed by an average of 8.7 percentage points.

This is an important Psephology 101 finding — polls of primaries are much less accurate than polls of general elections. Perhaps this isn’t emphasized enough. It seems that every election cycle, people are surprised by how wild and inaccurate polls of the primaries can be, and equally shocked at how stable and reliable polls of the general election are. Keep that in mind when everyone freaks out in 2016 because Elizabeth Warren or Rand Paul wins the New Hampshire primary after trailing in the final University of New Hampshire poll by 8 points.11 These outcomes are par for the course.

and of course it's "right", based on the poll he used

[pinebox]

115. Try again. Bernie is up 10, Hillary is down 4

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/sanders-gop-steady-terrorism-worries-back-poll/story?id=35337895

[Betty Karlson]

103. That's what his supporters have been saying all along. n/t

[SoapBox]

104. Go Bernie!

We went to dinner...Saturday night...two guys in the style of ZZ Top were sitting behind use...talking about Bernie...favorably.

Our waiter was really nice and when I gave him his tip, I slipped him a FeelTheBern.org card (business size) about Bernie and asked him to check him out...he already knew about Bernie and that is who he will vote for...he said he would share the card.

Hillers and the Entrentched Establishment simply don't understand the broad depth of his appeal (or it's the Head-in-the-Sand Syndrome)...and the dislike of her.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

109. Meanwhile Trump is claiming he might run as an independent.....

Thus splitting the GOP vote and securing a Democratic victory.

[NYCButterfinger]

112. Maybe...a lot of people are fed up and

Trump could get 30% of the vote. He won't win though.

[pinebox]

118. I'm not sure about that

I still think he could and right now http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/261035-fox-poll-six-republicans-would-beat-clinton

[Spitfire of ATJ]

120. I'm picking up someone from the airport tonight that raves about Trump....

Mainly because he's a typical SoCal anti-Mexican White Guy. He's going to be here for about 5-6 days.

Wish me luck.

[NYCButterfinger]

137. I wish you all the best of luck

[imthevicar]

116. I will Vote the Way I need to Vote.

This Thread: Not My circus, Not My Monkeys.

[Bubzer]

123. More good news!!!

There is overwhelming evidence from practically every public poll that Bernie Sanders is gaining ground and making progress in the Democratic primary,” said Ben Tolchin, Sanders’ pollster. “In fact, he is doing better against Hillary Clinton than Barack Obama was doing against Clinton at this stage of the campaign,” added Tolchin, citing a recent Gallup poll.

[Major Hogwash]

124. Hillary's downhill slide will never stop now.

And Bernie only has one way to go . . . to the White House!!

[Helen Borg]

136. Absolutely.

The people have seen the truth.

[Faux pas]

126. K N R

[zentrum]

130. The more they see him

…….the more they like him is precisely why HRC and DWS don't want more debates or debate schedules that increase viewership.

[Helen Borg]

135. Oh yeah!

He's coming to get you Hillary!

[paulkienitz]

138. Hillary's warning

http://www.theonion.com/article/hillary-clinton-to-nation-do-not-fuck-this-up-for--38416

[DFW]

139. Not one bumper sticker here, not one yard sign. That's the way, uh huh uh huh I like it!!

In my neighborhood, people don't even do that when there IS an election. It's on the Litfasssäulen, etc.

But here, "feel the barn/ready for hollering" is an election happening on another continent across the ocean.

I'm glad for the insulation.