538 now gives Obama a 74.5% probability of winning...

[regnaD kciN]

No commentary yet, but I assume this means we're about to get something about how Mitt's campaign bounce is still elusive.

The latest information.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

1. Isn't the bounce supposed to happen immediately after the convention...

If it happens at all?

I hope so.

[Drunken Irishman]

4. Generally...Clinton received a 29 point bounce after his convention in '92...

On July 18th, two days after the Democratic Convention, Clinton went from trailing Bush to leading him 55-31.

[bluestateguy]

6. which was aided by the Ross Perot drop out on Day Three of convention

Bush did whittle Clinton's lead down over the months, but it was too big a deficit to make up.

[Drunken Irishman]

8. Yes. Perot leaving helped immensely...

Which cracks me up because it essentially proves Clinton was hurt far more by Perot's candidacy than Bush.

For some odd reason, a few months ago, I caught a FOX News special on George H.W. Bush and it briefly touched on his reelection loss. During the discussion about it, everyone agreed that, had Perot not run, Bush would've won fairly easy. I disagree. I do think Perot hurt Bush early, since Perot was hammering Bush during a time when Clinton was still fighting primary battles, but in the end, as the polling suggests shortly after the convention, those voters who backed Perot were not going to vote for Bush ... and even if he won a significant portion of their vote, assuming they wouldn't have just stayed home, he still would have lost the electoral college.

[nxylas]

10. I thought the general rule was...

...that any swings attributable to specific events don't show up in the polls until 2 weeks after that event. Don't quote me on that, though, it's just something I read on the internet, which may or may not be true.

[davidn3600]

12. Dont have the stats in front of me but have read bounces have dimenished in recent years

This election appears a bit odd because there does not seem to be much movement in either direction for the last few months. Seems either most people have already made up their minds and/or they are not paying attention.

Most of the swing states are stuck within the margin of error and don't seem to be moving. It will be interesting to see what they do after the DNC convention.

[nxylas]

14. Electoral college math still favors Obama

I'm more worried about Congress. There's not much difference for me between Republicans winning all three branches of government and Obama squeaking through with a narrow victory and facing another 2-4 years of deadlock with an obstructionist Republican Congress. In fact, the latter may be worse, as Obama will continue to get the blame.

[bluestateguy]

2. Silver has noted that this is more because of some better economic data that has come in of late

Not so much polling numbers.

Silver's model also includes economic data.

[speedoo]

3. Yeah, RNC bounce is either elusive or non existent.

I think we will be hearing that from Nate by tomorrow at the latest.. PPP polls in FL and NC today showed no bounce.. The economic good news was in his model a couple of days ago, I think this latest bump is more from polls good news.

[Drunken Irishman]

5. The only polling outfit to show a Romney bounce is Rasmussen...

Which is sketchy at best.

[Tx4obama]

7. Two new polls from PPP, below

No bounce for Romney in Florida
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/09/no-bounce-for-romney-in-florida.html


NC enters convention tied up
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/09/nc-enters-convention-tied-up.html

[TroyD]

11. Colorado & Michigan

PPP will be releasing polls in Colorado & Michigan within the next day as well.

[grantcart]

9. President continues to climb at Intrade.

http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/

[MFM008]

13. yes, I noticed Prez keeps going up.

yet we are told its neck and neck....tied..... zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[tomm2thumbs]

15. Karl Rove will have squeezed enough juice from GOP donors to KEEP THEM AWAY the next 8 -12 yrs

If you keep coming with hat in hand for gobs of money, but you can't show anything for it, the rich folks finally figure out you are just stealing their money and burning it.

Karl is going to be thrown onto that heap soon enough because he has been picking GOP pockets for awhile now with nothing to show for it.

Poor silly little man.