Avg. Iowa polls in Nov: 50.5% Clinton, 43% Sanders; Iowa polls in Oct: 54.1% Clinton, 32.3% Sanders

[Attorney in Texas]

So considering the average of the Iowa polls where the data was gathered in November compared with the average of the previous month's polling, Clinton is down 3.6% (on average) and Sanders is up 10.7% (on average) resulting in a 14.5% narrowing of the gap from October to November.

Can someone remind me how this trend spells doom for Sanders and inevitability for Clinton?

PS - O'Malley is also improving in Iowa in November: 4.5% average versus a 3.9% in October.

[merrily]

1. Polls in November 2007 are revealing as well. And I remember when Obama had the NH primary

clinched--which was right up until Hillary won it.

It's always too early to give up (or become complacent), my friends, unless you'd really rather lose, for some bizarre reason. If you, though, kindly just shut up for a while, k? This primary is just too damned important to subvert in any way.

[Attorney in Texas]

4. it does seem like deja vu all over again

[merrily]

5. Always too soon to give up; always too soon to be complacent.

We can't just count on history repeating itself for several reasons.

1. In 2008, heavy hitting Democrats like Reid, Pelosi, Kennedy and Kerry were for Obama over Hillary.

2. Possibly as a result of No.1, the media also favored Obama over Hillary. In fact, as soon as Obama finished his amazing speech at the 2004 Democratic National Convention, media commentators were declaring him destined for the White House.

3. Possibly as a result of No. 1. Obama probably raised as much money as Hillary, or enough to make the difference immaterial.

4. Sanders does not have the youth or charisma of Obama.

5. If the DNC favored anyone in 2007-08, it favored Obama over Hillary.

Etc.


However, we do have to know that it ain't over 'til it's over. Or, as some Bostonians say, ovah. But's it's on us to work off our bottoms and donate all we can. And don't neglect GOTV.

[moobu2]

18. Bernie Sanders isnt going to win though.

I doubt he wins any state.

[Motown_Johnny]

21. Fantasy. You really think Hillary will win every state?

I hope when that doesn't happen you will wake up to your self delusions. Until then, enjoy them while you can.

[peacebird]

2. Bernie is going to surprise a lot of establishment dems...!

[Attorney in Texas]

3. Agreed. I think Sanders wins and, if not, he paves the way for Warren 2020 to beat one-term Trump

[libdem4life]

6. Interesting thought.

[Motown_Johnny]

7. Remember, this is a caucus state....

...so it isn't just the number of supporters you have, but how strongly they support you.

I think Bernie has the advantage in Iowa. It would truly surprise me if he loses there.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

9. Didn't Hillary lose Iowa?

[Motown_Johnny]

20. She came in third

Edwards just barely made 2nd.


http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/IA.html

[Rosa Luxemburg]

8. Close race

[Godhumor]

10. Assuming you want a real answer

None of the polls that showed a monster lead for Clinton in October have repolled in November.

Of the three polls totally done in November, their results compared to October are:

-2
+3
-1

Which show that the November results compared to October results are actually pretty damn stable.

That said, when the pollsters showing the huge gaps repolled, I would be shocked if the race isn't much closer than they showed in October. Very few people ever believes Clinton was up by 30 points or more in Iowa.

[BlueCheese]

15. I think her own campaign tweeted they didn't believe the numbers.

I would guess that given the race in Iowa is probably pretty similar to the race nationally among voters of the same demographics. So Clinton probably leads by as much as she does among generally liberal white people nationally. From what I've seen, that's probably somewhere around 10% or so.

Really, there could hardly be two more favorable states for Sanders to start than these two rural, very white ones, the second of which is in his backyard.

[SidDithers]

11. You're not comparing apples and apples...

There are only 3 polls in the Nov average, compared to 8 polls in the Oct avg.

So, you're comparing different datasets - which is useless.

Why don't you compare the 2 polls that repeat in both Oct and Nov - the Quinnipac and the CBS/YouGov.

In Oct, Quinnipac was Clinton +11.
In Nov, Quinnipac was Clinton +9

In Oct CBS/YouGov was Clinton +3
In Nov, CBS/YouGov was Clinton +6

So, one pollster has Bernie gaining 2 points in a month, and the other has Clinton gaining 3 points in the month.

Basically, it's a wash.

You're OMG!! A 14.5% SWING!!! is fiction.

Sid

[Godhumor]

16. Great minds and all that n/t

[SidDithers]

17. Yup...

Sid

[DCBob]

13. Oops!

Last edited Thu Nov 26, 2015, 09:25 AM - Edit history (1)

[DCBob]

14. Well October was a really good month for Hillary.. Debate, Biden, Benghazi..

November she came back to earth. She still has a decent lead.. just not as big.

However, the latest Iowa State poll indicates she may be on her way back up again!

http://whotv.com/2015/11/25/clinton-carson-lead-in-who-hd-iowa-state-university-poll/

Cheers!

[Codeine]

19. Here's where they can prove themselves.

If the Sanders youth vote/new voter count is as big as they say this race is where they can prove it. That's close enough to make a flip possible if their numbers are real.