Obama Needs 80% of Minority Vote to Win 2012 Presidential Election (Nat Journal)

[flamingdem]

http://www.nationaljournal.com/thenextamerica/politics/obama-needs-80-of-minority-vote-to-win-2012-presidential-election-20120824

MSNBC just reporting only 61% of Latinos will vote (for sure). They aren't excited ...yet ... this is key!!!!

My guess is that the campaign just doesn't have the right people to reach Latinos, it's not easy! But they may respond by staying home.


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For all of the numbers swirling around the presidential campaign as the nominating conventions approach, each side’s equation for success can be succinctly expressed.

For President Obama, the winning formula can be reduced to 80/40. In 2008, Obama won a combined 80 percent of the votes of all minority voters, including not only African-Americans but also Hispanics, Asians, and others. If Obama matches that performance this year, he can squeak out a national majority with support from about 40 percent of whites—so long as minorities at least match the 26 percent of the vote they cast last time.

Obama’s strategic equation defines Mitt Romney’s formula: 61/74. Romney’s camp is focused intently on capturing at least 61 percent of white voters. That would provide him a slim national majority—so long as whites constitute at least 74 percent of the vote, as they did last time, and Obama doesn’t improve on his 80 percent showing with minorities.

These calculations underscore the depth of racial polarization shadowing this election and the achingly slim margin of error facing each candidate. If Obama nudges past 80 percent among minorities (which seems very possible) or the minority vote share rises (also possible, though less probable), the president could gain reelection while winning only about 38 percent of white votes. Conversely, if the white proportion of the vote increases just a single percentage point (to 75 percent), and Romney records any gains among minorities, he could shave his winning number to a more manageable 59 percent of whites.

On its face, the math is tougher for Romney. If he reaches 61 percent among whites, he would equal the best performance ever for a Republican presidential challenger with that group of voters: Dwight Eisenhower in 1952, Ronald Reagan in 1980, and George H.W. Bush in 1988 each won between 56 percent and 61 percent of white voters, according to polls at the time.

If white voters maintain their 2008 share of the vote, that in itself would represent a significant shift. Whites have declined as a portion of the electorate in every presidential election since 1992, according to exit polls.

That streak might end in November. Obama could face both a numerator and a denominator problem in the electorate’s racial composition. The denominator problem is that turnout among conservative white voters could be much higher than in 2008. The numerator challenge is that economic dislocation, disappointment in Obama, and voter-identification laws passed in Republican-controlled states could depress minority turnout.

[longship]

1. National Journal's concern is noted. nt

.

[flamingdem]

2. I posted it because it shows how they think

and because the issue of the Latino vote seems to be the focus at the DNC

[longship]

3. Well, after all, it wasn't you who were concern trolling.

Glad to kick and rec your post because we have to see what's against us all.

[flamingdem]

4. thanks for following up

much appreciated

[bemildred]

5. No, he needs to win the electoral college, dumb ass.

Stupid Republicans don't even read the Constitution.

[CreekDog]

6. And Obama will get 80% of the minority vote...he already likely has that support

he's getting nearly 100% of the black vote.

he'll end up with close to 70% of the Hispanic vote.

he'll have a very strong majority of the Asian vote (this vote is still fairly small in numbers, but growing).

80% of the minority vote will happen, no doubt.