Brand Spanking New Ipsos Reuters Poll: Sanders Crushing Clinton in 18-35 Year Old Demographics!Clinton is losing to Sanders in the following Demographics:
18-29 year olds - 66% Sanders to 17% Clinton
18-34 year olds - 54% Sanders to 37% Clinton
Sanders is also beating Clinton losing among the very liberal 53% Sanders to 40% to Clinton.
Sanders is leading 53% to 44% among Democrats who report no religious affiliation
Sanders is also leading 45% to 44% among Democrats who are single and have never been married.
You can play with the filters to skew the poll to suit your agenda, but Reuters interprets the Reuters poll as 57% Clinton to 29% Sanders (no meaningful change from Reuters last poll). This is a nationwide internet poll (and there is no nationwide primary vote).
Sanders would get a high turnout and Clinton would dampen the turnout among this overwhelmingly Democratic demographic.
The one article I found was from shortly after Super Tuesday in 2008, and the youth vote in Democratic primaries was a little more than half the youth vote in the general election.
Following is a post I wrote after the 2014 election and posted on the Face Book page of Bureau County Democrats:
There is a lot of soul searching right now about how we fell short on Tuesday. The chart below lays out in clear detail what happened not only this year but in 2010 as well. Progressive ballot initiatives passed everywhere by overwhelming majorities which show, even considering the demographic metrics of this last election day, the American People are with us on individual issues.
Where we fell short is on turnout among our younger voters who are overwhelming more diverse. The Millennial Generation are a historical aberration in that they are breaking in unprecedented numbers away from previous generations in voting patterns and skewing heavily Democratic.
Steve Bennen writes, "The age gap between younger voters and seniors was huge in 2010 and had a lot to do with the Republican wave election. As NBC News exit polls found , this was even more pronounced yesterday."
The overall Republican demographic shrinks by approx. 2% every 4 years. However the "over 60" demographic which is heavily Republican, has increased their total participation rate in off year elections since 2008 from 29% to 35% while the under 30 generation remains static in such years at 12-13%.
Father Time will eventually erase this trend permanently but we would be better served to reach out, inspire and engage these voters now. Elections are after all about the future and no voter group has a longer future or more to lose than the Millennial Generation.
They don't vote and even if they favor the Democratic take on issues, they tend to register NPA (no party affiliation). The NPA registration means they can't vote in the primary in closed primary states like Florida. This is a huge disadvantage for Sanders. I compared 70-year-old registered voter participation with 20-year-old registered voter participation in 2014 in my area of Florida. Prepare to vomit. 70-yr-olds voted at a 77% rate while 20-yr-olds voted at a 22% rate. Winning hearts and minds without registering people to vote and getting out the vote is a recipe for disaster.
20 year olds have much more to gain or lose through the political process than 70 year olds. Go figure.
and many of those states award far more delegates.
But keep saying whatever makes you feel better.
Generally speaking, I think people should do whatever they can to live happy lives.
will likely be over for all practical purposes before most of those 48 states vote - you know that's how it works, right?
and I'm also familiar with polls showing Hillary destroying Bernie in states like South Carolina which also votes earlier than most other states.
If you want to pin your hopes on homogeneous states like Iowa and New Hampshire, that's fine.
Like I said, I believe people should do what they can to lead happy lives. If pinning your hopes on Iowa and New Hampshire makes you happy, then go for it!
Or let Iowans take care of it and I am sure they will.
be an indication that the candidate's national message was either slipping off target (if it was a polling dip) or was hitting the target dead on (if there was a polling uptick) but this poll reflects a 1% change which is a tiny fraction of the margin of error and so it means little (especially since the campaigns are not focusing on a nationwide message right now because they are focused in Iowa and New Hampshire).
It's the majority demographic!
My demographic! The most densely populated one! WOOOOOO!!! The one capable of making the most votes!!!
Check this out...
December 01, 2015
Ver. Sen. Bernie Sanders 34.0%
Former Sec. of State Hillary Clinton 32.0%
Wouldnt vote 28.0%
Mar. Gov. Martin OMalley 6.0%
But I must admit that I am very confused by it, because it can only be seen without the filters on. Turn off the filters, and you will see what I mean... Only polls that are little older show up with the filters on.
I hope someone here can explain to me what this might mean. I don't get it.
Because yes, they vote. http://www.democraticunderground.com/128073142
about 6 of us are taking the training (next week) and becoming Registrars. From there (for me) it's back to the Community college where I gathered signatures to get Bernie on the ballot in this state. to get them registered.
Unfortunately, deadlines have already expired in some states, NY being a very significant one. Thanks to DNC scheduling, that one expired before the first Democratic debate.