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Tue Dec 1, 2015, 07:08 PM

Brand Spanking New Ipsos Reuters Poll: Sanders Crushing Clinton in 18-35 Year Old Demographics!

Clinton is losing to Sanders in the following Demographics:

18-29 year olds - 66% Sanders to 17% Clinton

18-34 year olds - 54% Sanders to 37% Clinton


Sanders is also beating Clinton losing among the very liberal 53% Sanders to 40% to Clinton.

Sanders is leading 53% to 44% among Democrats who report no religious affiliation

Sanders is also leading 45% to 44% among Democrats who are single and have never been married.

You can play with the filters to skew the poll to suit your agenda, but Reuters interprets the Reuters poll as 57% Clinton to 29% Sanders (no meaningful change from Reuters last poll). This is a nationwide internet poll (and there is no nationwide primary vote).

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Reply Brand Spanking New Ipsos Reuters Poll: Sanders Crushing Clinton in 18-35 Year Old Demographics! (Original post)
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 OP
AtomicKitten Dec 2015 #1
Thinkingabout Dec 2015 #2
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #4
merrily Dec 2015 #30
George II Dec 2015 #32
merrily Dec 2015 #35
George II Dec 2015 #36
merrily Dec 2015 #37
mikekohr Dec 2015 #20
hay rick Dec 2015 #22
Thinkingabout Dec 2015 #24
hay rick Dec 2015 #25
merrily Dec 2015 #29
George II Dec 2015 #31
Cali_Democrat Dec 2015 #3
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #7
Cali_Democrat Dec 2015 #10
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #12
Cali_Democrat Dec 2015 #14
Kalidurga Dec 2015 #5
Name removed Dec 2015 #6
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #9
Ed Suspicious Dec 2015 #11
NCTraveler Dec 2015 #8
Cheese Sandwich Dec 2015 #13
retrowire Dec 2015 #15
UglyGreed Dec 2015 #16
PotatoChip Dec 2015 #17
captainarizona Dec 2015 #18
Quixote1818 Dec 2015 #19
merrily Dec 2015 #27
kjones Dec 2015 #21
Ferd Berfel Dec 2015 #23
merrily Dec 2015 #26
Ferd Berfel Dec 2015 #33
merrily Dec 2015 #34
Ferd Berfel Dec 2015 #38
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #39
WillyT Dec 2015 #28

Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Tue Dec 1, 2015, 07:09 PM

1. New voters are not being polled in most polls. This bodes well for Bernie.

 

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Tue Dec 1, 2015, 07:15 PM

2. What percentage rate do they vote?

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Response to Thinkingabout (Reply #2)

Tue Dec 1, 2015, 07:18 PM

4. Sort of depends on who your nominee is. Kerry, low turn out. Obama, high turn out. Polling indicates

Sanders would get a high turnout and Clinton would dampen the turnout among this overwhelmingly Democratic demographic.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #4)

Tue Dec 1, 2015, 11:45 PM

30. The youth vote made a difference in 2008 and 2014.

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Response to merrily (Reply #30)

Wed Dec 2, 2015, 02:35 PM

32. How did the youth turnout for the primaries? That's what we're talking about.

The one article I found was from shortly after Super Tuesday in 2008, and the youth vote in Democratic primaries was a little more than half the youth vote in the general election.

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Response to George II (Reply #32)

Wed Dec 2, 2015, 03:12 PM

35. We'll see in a couple of months.

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Response to merrily (Reply #35)

Wed Dec 2, 2015, 03:13 PM

36. I was talking about the primaries in 2008 (none in 2012 nor a Presidential election in 2014)

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Response to George II (Reply #36)

Wed Dec 2, 2015, 03:14 PM

37. Yes, I understood that. In a couple of months, we'll see how the youth vote turns out for this

primary.

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Response to Thinkingabout (Reply #2)

Tue Dec 1, 2015, 09:45 PM

20. In Presidential Elections They Turn Out, and are key to Democratic victory

Following is a post I wrote after the 2014 election and posted on the Face Book page of Bureau County Democrats:

There is a lot of soul searching right now about how we fell short on Tuesday. The chart below lays out in clear detail what happened not only this year but in 2010 as well. Progressive ballot initiatives passed everywhere by overwhelming majorities which show, even considering the demographic metrics of this last election day, the American People are with us on individual issues.
Where we fell short is on turnout among our younger voters who are overwhelming more diverse. The Millennial Generation are a historical aberration in that they are breaking in unprecedented numbers away from previous generations in voting patterns and skewing heavily Democratic.
Steve Bennen writes, "The age gap between younger voters and seniors was huge in 2010 and had a lot to do with the Republican wave election. As NBC News’ exit polls found , this was even more pronounced yesterday."
The overall Republican demographic shrinks by approx. 2% every 4 years. However the "over 60" demographic which is heavily Republican, has increased their total participation rate in off year elections since 2008 from 29% to 35% while the under 30 generation remains static in such years at 12-13%.
Father Time will eventually erase this trend permanently but we would be better served to reach out, inspire and engage these voters now. Elections are after all about the future and no voter group has a longer future or more to lose than the Millennial Generation.

?itok=iRYPbTqP


http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/dems-struggle-older-voters-dominate

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Response to Thinkingabout (Reply #2)

Tue Dec 1, 2015, 10:07 PM

22. Two problems.

They don't vote and even if they favor the Democratic take on issues, they tend to register NPA (no party affiliation). The NPA registration means they can't vote in the primary in closed primary states like Florida. This is a huge disadvantage for Sanders. I compared 70-year-old registered voter participation with 20-year-old registered voter participation in 2014 in my area of Florida. Prepare to vomit. 70-yr-olds voted at a 77% rate while 20-yr-olds voted at a 22% rate. Winning hearts and minds without registering people to vote and getting out the vote is a recipe for disaster.

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Response to hay rick (Reply #22)

Tue Dec 1, 2015, 10:53 PM

24. This is a big problem, it is their future more than the 70 year old, more important for them to

participate.

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Response to Thinkingabout (Reply #24)

Tue Dec 1, 2015, 10:57 PM

25. Absolutely.

20 year olds have much more to gain or lose through the political process than 70 year olds. Go figure.

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Response to hay rick (Reply #22)

Tue Dec 1, 2015, 11:44 PM

29. They do vote.

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Response to Thinkingabout (Reply #2)

Wed Dec 2, 2015, 02:05 PM

31. I believe the 18-29 age demographic has among the worst turnouts over the years.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Tue Dec 1, 2015, 07:17 PM

3. 57% to 29% is still a pretty good spanking. nt

 

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Response to Cali_Democrat (Reply #3)

Tue Dec 1, 2015, 07:19 PM

7. Not in a national poll. It would be a bad number in an Iowa or New Hampshire poll.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #7)

Tue Dec 1, 2015, 07:27 PM

10. Except there are 48 states other than Iowa and New Hampshire

 

and many of those states award far more delegates.

But keep saying whatever makes you feel better.

Generally speaking, I think people should do whatever they can to live happy lives.

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Response to Cali_Democrat (Reply #10)

Tue Dec 1, 2015, 07:31 PM

12. You understand that those 48 states votes much later on the calendar, right? In fact, the nomination

will likely be over for all practical purposes before most of those 48 states vote - you know that's how it works, right?

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #12)

Tue Dec 1, 2015, 07:38 PM

14. I'm familiar with the calendar

 

and I'm also familiar with polls showing Hillary destroying Bernie in states like South Carolina which also votes earlier than most other states.

If you want to pin your hopes on homogeneous states like Iowa and New Hampshire, that's fine.

Like I said, I believe people should do what they can to lead happy lives. If pinning your hopes on Iowa and New Hampshire makes you happy, then go for it!

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Tue Dec 1, 2015, 07:19 PM

5. Now all we have to do is get them to the primaries

Or let Iowans take care of it and I am sure they will.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)


Response to Name removed (Reply #6)

Tue Dec 1, 2015, 07:25 PM

9. As part of a trend, yes. If this poll was out of the mainstream for prior national polls, it would

be an indication that the candidate's national message was either slipping off target (if it was a polling dip) or was hitting the target dead on (if there was a polling uptick) but this poll reflects a 1% change which is a tiny fraction of the margin of error and so it means little (especially since the campaigns are not focusing on a nationwide message right now because they are focused in Iowa and New Hampshire).

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Response to Name removed (Reply #6)

Tue Dec 1, 2015, 07:27 PM

11. We've been saying the primaries run state by state all along. We're feeling alright.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Tue Dec 1, 2015, 07:21 PM

8. Huge margin for Clinton. Nt

 

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Tue Dec 1, 2015, 07:32 PM

13. That 57% to 29% is with Dems only...If you include independents it is 45% to 30%

 

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Tue Dec 1, 2015, 08:29 PM

15. Hey look!

It's the majority demographic!

My demographic! The most densely populated one! WOOOOOO!!! The one capable of making the most votes!!!

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Tue Dec 1, 2015, 08:55 PM

16. I am shocked



Not really

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Tue Dec 1, 2015, 09:04 PM

17. There appears to be an even newer Reuters poll within this one.

Check this out...

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131/dates/20150808-20160125/type/smallest

December 01, 2015
113 RESPONDENTS
Ver. Sen. Bernie Sanders 34.0%
Former Sec. of State Hillary Clinton 32.0%
Wouldn’t vote 28.0%
Mar. Gov. Martin O’Malley 6.0%

But I must admit that I am very confused by it, because it can only be seen without the filters on. Turn off the filters, and you will see what I mean... Only polls that are little older show up with the filters on.

I hope someone here can explain to me what this might mean. I don't get it.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Tue Dec 1, 2015, 09:17 PM

18. too bad people over 34 get to vote

 

The minority vote still eludes bernie.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Tue Dec 1, 2015, 09:20 PM

19. Nationwide Polling is meaningless right now. Only about 10% of the electorate is paying attention.


nt

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Response to Quixote1818 (Reply #19)

Tue Dec 1, 2015, 11:41 PM

27. Given the electoral college, nationwide is not very precise.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Tue Dec 1, 2015, 09:55 PM

21. Also looks like he's winning the Very Conservative too...

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Tue Dec 1, 2015, 10:16 PM

23. But can we get them to register AND vote?

I sure hope so.

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Response to Ferd Berfel (Reply #23)

Tue Dec 1, 2015, 11:40 PM

26. Where have "we" been trying to get them registered?

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Response to merrily (Reply #26)

Wed Dec 2, 2015, 02:54 PM

33. In My Bernie Group

about 6 of us are taking the training (next week) and becoming Registrars. From there (for me) it's back to the Community college where I gathered signatures to get Bernie on the ballot in this state. to get them registered.

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Response to Ferd Berfel (Reply #33)

Wed Dec 2, 2015, 03:10 PM

34. Great! Because if they are registered and understand the importance of the primary, they will vote.

Unfortunately, deadlines have already expired in some states, NY being a very significant one. Thanks to DNC scheduling, that one expired before the first Democratic debate.

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Response to merrily (Reply #34)

Wed Dec 2, 2015, 07:13 PM

38. True. In Illinois we have some time

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Response to Ferd Berfel (Reply #33)

Sat Dec 5, 2015, 04:37 PM

39. That's exactly what we all need to be doing

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Tue Dec 1, 2015, 11:43 PM

28. HUGE K & R !!! - Thank You !!!

 


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