HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Retired » Retired Forums » 2016 Postmortem (Forum) » Sanders 49%-Cruz 39% vs. ...

Wed Dec 2, 2015, 02:12 PM

Sanders 49%-Cruz 39% vs. Clinton 47%-Cruz 42% / Sanders 47%-Carson 41% vs. Clinton 46%-Cruz 43% /

Sanders 49%-Trump 41% vs. Clinton 47%-Cruz 41%.

In addition to confirming that "Sanders does just as well, or even better, against top Republicans," today's Quinnipiac poll shows the candidates' favorable/unfavorable ratings:

(+13).....(44 - 31 percent) for Sanders
(+9).......(37 - 28 percent) for Rubio
(+7).......(40 - 33 percent) for Carson
(even)....(33 - 33 percent) for Cruz
(-6)........(44 - 51 percent) for Clinton

Most importantly, today's poll also has data on the voters' perception of the candidates as honest and trustworthy or not:

(+31).....(59 - 28 percent) for Sanders
(+19).....(53 - 34 percent) for Carson
(+16).....(49 - 33 percent) for Rubio
(+4).......(43 - 39 percent) for Cruz
(-24)......(60 - 36 percent) for Clinton
(-24)......(59 - 35 percent) for Trump

I say this rating for honesty and trustworthiness is the most important number because voters place such a high emphasis on honesty and trustworthiness:

38 replies, 1484 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 38 replies Author Time Post
Reply Sanders 49%-Cruz 39% vs. Clinton 47%-Cruz 42% / Sanders 47%-Carson 41% vs. Clinton 46%-Cruz 43% / (Original post)
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 OP
merrily Dec 2015 #1
The Blue Traveller Dec 2015 #2
JaneyVee Dec 2015 #3
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #6
Name removed Dec 2015 #24
Cali_Democrat Dec 2015 #4
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #5
Cali_Democrat Dec 2015 #8
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #13
NCTraveler Dec 2015 #10
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #14
NCTraveler Dec 2015 #15
Cali_Democrat Dec 2015 #11
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #16
thesquanderer Dec 2015 #35
BeyondGeography Dec 2015 #7
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #17
NCTraveler Dec 2015 #9
Faux pas Dec 2015 #12
moobu2 Dec 2015 #18
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #19
MaggieD Dec 2015 #21
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #22
Logical Dec 2015 #26
MaggieD Dec 2015 #20
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #23
NCTraveler Dec 2015 #27
upaloopa Dec 2015 #29
redstateblues Dec 2015 #32
seabeyond Dec 2015 #25
upaloopa Dec 2015 #28
DCBob Dec 2015 #30
Betty Karlson Dec 2015 #34
FloridaBlues Dec 2015 #31
Betty Karlson Dec 2015 #33
thucythucy Dec 2015 #36
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #37
thucythucy Dec 2015 #38

Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Wed Dec 2, 2015, 02:23 PM

1. I would put first "Represents the interests of ordinary Americans."

"Trustworthy" might be second. (Does anyone think dishonest people are trustworthy?)

Why, oh, why does no one consult me about all these things?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Wed Dec 2, 2015, 02:23 PM

2. Kicked and recommended

 

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Wed Dec 2, 2015, 02:25 PM

3. Yet he can't even beat Hillary.

 

While Hillary beats Bernie and all Republicans.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to JaneyVee (Reply #3)

Wed Dec 2, 2015, 02:34 PM

6. I'm content to let the voters chose the nominee which you seem overeager to crown before the voting.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #6)


Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Wed Dec 2, 2015, 02:26 PM

4. That poll shows Hillary leading Bernie by 30 points(60% to 30%)

 

Bernie is getting spanked.

To me, the most electable Dem is the one who wins the most delegates and I'm sure the folks at the Democratic National Convention will agree.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Cali_Democrat (Reply #4)

Wed Dec 2, 2015, 02:31 PM

5. That poll shows a national lead for Clinton. There isn't a national primary. The pertinent questions

about the primary are not who leads a national poll, but

1. who will win Iowa,
2. by how much, and
3. will this result affect subsequent caucuses?
4. who will win New Hampshire,
5. by how much, and
6. will this affect subsequent primaries?

The favorable/unfavorable ratings and the honest and trustworthy ratings are a key for the general election.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #5)

Wed Dec 2, 2015, 02:43 PM

8. So you think the Dem primary comes down to two states....you only mentioned two states.

 

Good luck with that.

I wish you all the best.

I honestly do believe that people should believe in whatever makes them feel good. If focusing on two small, homogeneous states while ignoring the other 48 states makes you feel good...then go for it!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Cali_Democrat (Reply #8)

Wed Dec 2, 2015, 03:13 PM

13. The Democratic primary DOES NOT come down to 2 states. But the results in the 2 states historically

has a very significant impact on the results of the subsequent 48 states.

The safest prediction about Super Tuesday, for example, is the prediction that the primary results it will NOT look much like the current polling.

If Clinton wins Iowa and New Hampshire, she'll likely do better on Super Tuesday than her current poling indicates, and she may well run the table (with the exception of a few "voters' remorse" primaries where the voters go against the presumptive nominee because that commonly happens).

If Sanders wins Iowa or New Hampshire, that does not foretell that he will win South Carolina or Nevada or on Super Tuesday, but he will probably do better than his current polling indicates and the polling and presumptions formed before the Iowa and New Hampshire results will not longer be reliable.

This process is not a mystery. It happens just about every four year.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #5)

Wed Dec 2, 2015, 02:47 PM

10. If you truly believe what you just typed,...

 

Then the numbers you are touting are insignificant as well. Electoral College.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to NCTraveler (Reply #10)

Wed Dec 2, 2015, 03:22 PM

14. National horse-race polling is a weak prognosticator of the primary process; the Electoral College

has nothing to do with the primary process.

The nation's opinion of a candidate has bearing on the candidate's national (i.e., general election) prospects, but it has very little to do with a candidate's primary prospects. That is why Clinton's untrustworthiness is such a huge problem because it MAY NOT COST HER the primary (because 68% Democrats do not find her untrustworthy), but this may very well be a FATAL in the general election process because independents and potential Republican crossover voters simply do not trust her at all.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #14)

Wed Dec 2, 2015, 03:24 PM

15. "The electoral College has nothing to do with the primary process."

 

No truer words. lol.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #5)

Wed Dec 2, 2015, 02:49 PM

11. Also, aren't you citing national numbers in your OP?

 

Interesting how you tout national numbers favorable to Bernie, but try to shit on national numbers showing Hillary beating Bernie handily.

Make up your damn mind!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Cali_Democrat (Reply #11)

Wed Dec 2, 2015, 03:25 PM

16. Yes because I am making a point about the general election. National horse-race polling is a poor

predictor of primary election results, but it is a better indicator of what the general electorate currently feels about a candidate.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Cali_Democrat (Reply #4)

Thu Dec 3, 2015, 10:56 AM

35. The most electable candidate (from either party)...

... is not necessarily the one who gets the most delegates (i.e. his or her party's nomination), because of course the pool of voters changes. Appealing to independent and potential cross-party voters can be a much more significant factor in the general. That's why I think Sanders is more electable... but I don't think he'll have the opportunity, because I don't expect him to get the nomination. Luckily, HRC is still sufficiently electable to be able to win.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Wed Dec 2, 2015, 02:37 PM

7. The GOP hasn't spent any time turning Bernie's life and ideas upside down and all around

The taxman fearmongering alone would be epic, trust me.

The HRC numbers you cite are an issue, but not as judged against a candidate who has never been in their crosshairs.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to BeyondGeography (Reply #7)

Thu Dec 3, 2015, 12:17 AM

17. Please pass your thought along to Rubio and Trump and Cruz

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Wed Dec 2, 2015, 02:45 PM

9. Poll after poll shows we are in a great position. nt.

 

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Wed Dec 2, 2015, 02:52 PM

12. Kicketty Kickin'

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Thu Dec 3, 2015, 12:24 AM

18. Bernie Sanders isnt going to win the primary and everybody knows that

that's why he's gotten a free ride with the GOP and the media and is polling so high. If they thought Bernie Sanders had any chance in hell of winning the primary, they would start attacking and redefining him and his poll numbers would drop like a rock.

Bernie Sanders will lose this election and he'll be too old to run again. Bernie Sanders will never be president of the United Sates......ever.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to moobu2 (Reply #18)

Thu Dec 3, 2015, 12:45 AM

19. Just like "everybody" knew that Obama wasn't going to win because Clinton was inevitable in 2007.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #19)

Thu Dec 3, 2015, 01:03 AM

21. Problem is....

 

Bernie has no support from Latinos or AA voters. And he is angry where Obama was inspirational. You're kidding yourself if you think Bernie is going to pull an Obama.

It is simply not going to happen. But you're free to dream and convince yourself.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to MaggieD (Reply #21)

Thu Dec 3, 2015, 01:07 AM

22. I think Hillary and her supporters are going to pull a Hillary

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to moobu2 (Reply #18)

Thu Dec 3, 2015, 09:25 AM

26. Lol, desperate much? Nt

 

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Thu Dec 3, 2015, 01:00 AM

20. Sadly for Bernie supporters...

 

Dem voters are really not as na´ve and stupid as you seem to think they are. Sanders would be beat by 20% in the GE after the rethugs got done running 24/7 ads against him with video proclaiming he is a socialist, and highlighting his Denmark remarks along with his proposals that total $18 TRILLION dollars.

Dems aren't that dumb. No sale.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to MaggieD (Reply #20)

Thu Dec 3, 2015, 01:09 AM

23. You are wrong. NO DEMOGRAPHIC EXCEPT MIDDLE AGED DEMOCRATS TRUSTS HILLARY (thanks for inspiring

a new discussion!)

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #23)

Thu Dec 3, 2015, 09:36 AM

27. The people who have known her longest trust her most.

 

Great point.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #23)

Thu Dec 3, 2015, 09:48 AM

29. You hang your hat on that trust thing because it is all you have left.

"any port in a storm" syndrome

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to MaggieD (Reply #20)

Thu Dec 3, 2015, 10:14 AM

32. Then there's the "Honeymoon in Moscow"

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Thu Dec 3, 2015, 09:24 AM

25. Democrats, in for the win. !!!

 

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Thu Dec 3, 2015, 09:44 AM

28. When polls show Hillary leading they are bogus. When polls show Bernie losing it

is because he lacks name recognition.

So the questions are:

1. Why isn't this poll bogus

2. How can a relevant number people say anything about Bernie if he lacks name recognition?

Which is it?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Thu Dec 3, 2015, 09:53 AM

30. Splitting hairs on numbers that mean very little at this point in time.

The most significant number is Hillary's 2-to-1 lead over Bernie in most polls. No need to split hairs there.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to DCBob (Reply #30)

Thu Dec 3, 2015, 10:24 AM

34. The second important number is how fast that lead shrinks. eom

 

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Thu Dec 3, 2015, 10:04 AM

31. First major hurdle getting past Hillary

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Thu Dec 3, 2015, 10:23 AM

33. This! A thousand times this. K&R/ eom

 

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Thu Dec 3, 2015, 11:05 AM

36. On the one hand I'm encouraged that Bernie does so well in these polls.

On the other hand, the very idea that roughly 40% of likely voters could possibly support idiots like Cruz, Carson, Trump et al depresses me no end.

In any case, a K & R for this post.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to thucythucy (Reply #36)

Sat Dec 5, 2015, 04:43 PM

37. I want to believe that the support for Trump/Carson/Cruz is really just dissatisfaction with Bush/

Rubio/Christie/Kasich

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #37)

Sun Dec 6, 2015, 01:04 PM

38. I'm afraid the popularity of Trump

says something much more sinister about the state of American politics.

I'm very worried about the future. I hope Bernie gets the nomination, but whoever gets it I hope we Democrats rally around that person to keep the fingers of out and out sociopaths off the nuclear trigger and away from executive power.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread