Sanders winning in New Hampshire (by 10% in newest poll), Maine, Utah, Vermont (plus Iowa update)!

[Attorney in Texas]

Last edited Sat Dec 12, 2015, 01:44 PM - Edit history (2)

Here are the most recent polls in Maine, New Hampshire, Utah, and Vermont.

In Iowa, Clinton has the lead but Sanders has the momentum.

A report on ABC News this morning confirms that Sanders is ahead of the Obama 2008 pace in Iowa:

Pollster Ann Selzer, who conducts the Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll, noted one similarity between the contest today and in 2007. In Selzer's October poll, Clinton was leading the field, as she was then. But Selzer also noted that Obama held a double-digit lead with independents eight years ago and Sanders holds an even larger lead with that group this time.

"On paper you would say Sanders is in a better place" than Obama, the eventual Iowa winner, in 2007, Selzer said. But the question, she said, is whether he has the organization to turn that potential into caucus votes.

Iowa is notoriously difficult to poll because it is a caucus state, but -- historically -- the Des Moines Register has a pretty good track record, and here is a graph of the Des Moines Register's polling results (it is shown two ways: with moderate smoothing and then, to better capture the trend, smoothed -- I include both so the Give Hillary Her Crown Now! squad can get twice as pissy about it):

MODERATE SMOOTHING



SMOOTHED

Either way, Clinton's trend is downward and Sanders' trend is upward.

After the Des Moines Register, the second most active live phone pollster working in Iowa is Quinnipiac, and that polling confirms this trend:

MODERATE SMOOTHING (Quinnipiac)

Sometimes the Give Hillary Her Crown Now! squad likes to crow about internet polls and cherry picking among pollsters and polling methods, and CBS has commissioned some internet polling in Iowa, so here is that polling:

MODERATE SMOOTHING (CBS/YouGov)

Looking at all these polls together confirms that Clinton's path is generally downward and Sanders' path forward in Iowa is up!

SMOOTHING TO HIGHLIGHT TRENDS (Quinnipiac and CBS/YouGov)



SMOOTHING TO HIGHLIGHT TRENDS (Quinnipiac and CBS/YouGov and Des Moines Register)



MODERATE SMOOTHING TO HIGHLIGHT HIGHS AND LOWS IN POLLS (Quinnipiac and CBS/YouGov and Des Moines Register)

Ultimately, I prefer the Des Moines Register polling and I'm not much of a fan of the type of internet-based polling that CBS commissioned, but whether you look to the Des Moines Register or Quinnipiac or CBS/YouGov or a combination of these pollsters, Iowa looks like a close race. The coronation squad does not want to hear this, but the higher they raise expectations, the more momentum Sanders will take out of Iowa.

Things look good in Iowa and GREAT in New Hampshire! Here is the polling trend-line in New Hampshire:

Here is the same polling graphed with the smoothing minimized (to show the individual ups-and-downs in the polls rather than the general trend lines shown in the smoothed polling above):

Have a great weekend!

[Kalidurga]

1. good trends :D

[Attorney in Texas]

5. Sanders 2016 is ahead of where Obama 2008 was with Iowa independents

[Kalidurga]

6. Fantastic

He probably had better name recognition. Just guessing, I happen to have heard of several politicians in the states that surround Minnesota. Politicians from New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine not so much.

[Live and Learn]

2. K&R nt

[reformist2]

3. Very interesting. I had no idea some polls had it consistently this close. The big question is...

... which poll is right??? We'll find out in a month!

[Attorney in Texas]

4. ABC News has a great story this morning about Sanders' progress in Iowa:

link; excerpt:

Pollster Ann Selzer, who conducts the Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll, noted one similarity between the contest today and in 2007. In Selzer's October poll, Clinton was leading the field, as she was then. But Selzer also noted that Obama held a double-digit lead with independents eight years ago and Sanders holds an even larger lead with that group this time.

"On paper you would say Sanders is in a better place" than Obama, the eventual Iowa winner, in 2007, Selzer said. But the question, she said, is whether he has the organization to turn that potential into caucus votes.

[DCBob]

7. This post perfectly illustrates the art of cherry-picking.

[Attorney in Texas]

8. So you think this thread is perfect? Awesome!