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Mon Dec 14, 2015, 12:59 PM

The Sanders campaign is EXACTLY where it should be at this moment in Iowa

Today’s new Iowa poll from the Des Moines Register shows Sanders within single digits of Clinton, and this is part of an excellent polling trend in Iowa:

Most Smoothing

Moderate Smoothing

Least Smoothing

As you can see, the polling trend is so uniform that it does not much matter how you graph the data to show that Clinton is trending downward while Sanders is trending upward (I include all three graphs to address the inevitable whining from the Crown-Her-Now! Squad).

This polling is critical and very encouraging for three reasons.

First, it is very significant that this is a Des Moines Register poll because Iowa is a caucus state, and – as a result -- it is particularly difficult to accurately poll, and the Des Moines Register poll has by far the best record of accurate results:

Ann Selzer's secret sauce -- Iowa's legendary pollster explains what makes her the best in the business
At a time when trust in public polling has eroded after high-profile failures in elections across the country and around the globe, people in Iowa still have faith that one woman can accurately measure where things stand in next year’s volatile caucuses.
That woman, J. Ann Selzer, has predicted election after election in Iowa…The recent track record of her firm, Selzer & Company, is impressive: Selzer, who has polled for the Des Moines Register for decades, was the only pollster to nail the order of Democratic candidates in 2004. Her final poll before the 2008 caucuses accurately predicted that a surge of first-time caucusgoers would propel Barack Obama to a decisive victory. Selzer saw former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum’s surge in the waning days before the 2012 GOP caucuses when few others did.

Second, the timing of Sanders’ rise is perfect. Cruz had a big rise in the simultaneous Des Moines Register poll of Republicans in Iowa, and the question has arisen whether he has peaked too early:

Obradovich: Is Cruz peaking too soon?...
There’s little doubt that Cruz would be in position to win the caucuses if they came in early January, as they did in 2012 and 2008. ... The question is whether the Texas senator can ride this rocket until Feb. 1 and win the Iowa caucuses. The answer is a solid “maybe.” Polls are merely snapshots in time, and predictions made even a month in advance are like trying to dance on a trampoline, wearing stilts.

Iowa GOP caucus polls from 2011 show how fast the ground can shift. In the Register’s Iowa Poll taken Nov. 27-30, 2011, Newt Gingrich was winning with 25 percent, and Ron Paul was second with 18 percent. Mitt Romney, who would win the vote count on caucus night, was in fourth place with 16 percent. The eventual caucus winner, Rick Santorum, was tied with Rick Perry with 6 percent. Only Jon Huntsman, who wasn’t campaigning in Iowa, was lower, at 2 percent.

Finally, the internal numbers of the poll look very good for Sanders:

* Sanders has a 21% lead over Clinton in honesty and trustworthiness (52% to 31%);
* Sanders has a 20% lead over Clinton as the candidate who will fight for the middle class (56% to 36%);
* Sanders has a 11% lead over Clinton as the candidate who cares about people like the voter (49% to 38%);
* Sanders has a 28% lead over Clinton as the candidate who will fix Wall Street (57% to 29%);
* Sanders has a 25% lead over Clinton among independents who will caucus with the Democrats (51% to 26%);
* Sanders has a 27% lead over Clinton among those under 45 years old (58% to 31%);
* Sanders has a 9% lead over Clinton among those first time caucus voters (49% to 40%);
* Sanders has a 4% lead over Clinton among liberals (48% to 44%);
* Sanders has a 19% lead over Clinton among the non-religious (55% to 36%);
* The voters agree with Sanders rather than Clinton on the Iraq war, Wall Street bailouts and banking, NAFTA and TPP, marijuana legalization, health care, and tax policy; and
* If you add the first choice and second choice numbers (a critical factor in a caucus) Clinton is at 75% and Sanders is right on her heels is at 72%.


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Reply The Sanders campaign is EXACTLY where it should be at this moment in Iowa (Original post)
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 OP
jeff47 Dec 2015 #1
tularetom Dec 2015 #2
Godhumor Dec 2015 #3
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #4
SidDithers Dec 2015 #5
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #8
stevenleser Dec 2015 #10
SidDithers Dec 2015 #12
DCBob Dec 2015 #6
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #9
stevenleser Dec 2015 #11
DCBob Dec 2015 #14
bluestateguy Dec 2015 #7
workinclasszero Dec 2015 #21
CajunBlazer Dec 2015 #13
CoffeeCat Dec 2015 #17
CajunBlazer Dec 2015 #18
CoffeeCat Dec 2015 #27
CajunBlazer Dec 2015 #31
CoffeeCat Dec 2015 #32
in_cog_ni_to Dec 2015 #15
CoffeeCat Dec 2015 #16
CajunBlazer Dec 2015 #19
theislander Dec 2015 #34
CoffeeCat Dec 2015 #35
CajunBlazer Dec 2015 #40
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #33
Art_from_Ark Dec 2015 #38
CajunBlazer Dec 2015 #41
workinclasszero Dec 2015 #20
CoffeeCat Dec 2015 #36
in_cog_ni_to Dec 2015 #22
bvar22 Dec 2015 #23
ibegurpard Dec 2015 #25
Juicy_Bellows Dec 2015 #26
bvar22 Dec 2015 #29
Juicy_Bellows Dec 2015 #30
CajunBlazer Dec 2015 #42
ibegurpard Dec 2015 #24
NCTraveler Dec 2015 #28
cosmicone Dec 2015 #37
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #39
CajunBlazer Dec 2015 #43
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #44
SidDithers Dec 2015 #45
Persondem Dec 2015 #46
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #47

Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Dec 14, 2015, 01:01 PM

1. But the topline number went down!! So it's over!!

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Dec 14, 2015, 01:09 PM

2. I'm on your side so don't take this the wrong way

But all three of those graphs appear identical to me. Am I missing something?

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Response to tularetom (Reply #2)

Mon Dec 14, 2015, 01:21 PM

3. No, you're not. The OP has the Pollster regression doing something it can't do well

And it isn't the OP's fault as Pollster would never post the limits of Regression effectiveness.

Anyway, Pollster uses a regression to populate all three types of graphs. Regressions are highly dependent on the amount of data that go in, so limiting the calculation to just one poll with very, very few data points will produce highly uniform results.

You can end up in some very strange places playing with the customize options at Pollster.

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Response to tularetom (Reply #2)

Mon Dec 14, 2015, 01:23 PM

4. The top graph is very slightly different. The other two graphs come out exactly the same regardless

of whether you graph with the data points with more or less smoothing under the Pollster graphing model. This is because the data points create a very straight trend that plots along the same path regardless of the amount of smoothing used to straighten out the line (in order to highlight the trend) versus reducing the smoothing (to better show more individual ups and downs in the polling).

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Dec 14, 2015, 01:28 PM

5. Um. No...

DMR/Bloomberg from October had

Clinton 48 / Sanders 41 (Clinton +7)

DMR/Bloomberg from today had

Clinton 48 / Sanders 39 (Clinton +9)

So, the Des Moines Register, the most accurate pollster in Iowa according to you, has Sanders falling further behind.

Data analysis really isn't your forte, is it...

Sid

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Response to SidDithers (Reply #5)

Mon Dec 14, 2015, 01:42 PM

8. That's correct. Clinton is now polling at the same level as her pre-Bengazi hearing poll in Iowa.

Sanders is doing great and is within single digits -- exactly where he ought to be six weeks before the caucus.

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Response to SidDithers (Reply #5)

Mon Dec 14, 2015, 01:45 PM

10. Hey at least they are making progress. They're using real polls instead of online polls.

 

True, they are messing with the data to the point it's meaningless but at least they are using real polls now.

The attempts to make online polls into something that meant something was a real low for DU.

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Response to stevenleser (Reply #10)

Mon Dec 14, 2015, 01:46 PM

12. Yeppers...



Sid

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Dec 14, 2015, 01:34 PM

6. Looks like you had some trouble with the chart controls..

Here's a clean chart, date range May 2015-current, showing the actual trends..


http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-iowa-presidential-democratic-primary#!mindate=2015-05-01&estimate=custom

Hope that helps!

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Response to DCBob (Reply #6)

Mon Dec 14, 2015, 01:44 PM

9. That is not a chart of the Des Moines Register polling, which is the topic, but thanks for playing!

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #9)

Mon Dec 14, 2015, 01:46 PM

11. That poster never claimed it was. But it is a reflection of whats really going on in Iowa.

 

OP is not.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #9)

Mon Dec 14, 2015, 01:49 PM

14. Its clear you are the one playing games.. not me.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Dec 14, 2015, 01:41 PM

7. Ronald H. Coase — "If you torture the data long enough, it will confess."

Cough, cough, ahem..

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Response to bluestateguy (Reply #7)

Mon Dec 14, 2015, 02:38 PM

21. LOL

 

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Dec 14, 2015, 01:48 PM

13. It's obvious that that there are not enough points for a good predictive analysis.

In additional people are hard to predict with poll statistics. For instance, past polls do not take into consideration events like the recent terrorist attacks.

Bernie does look like he is has been steadily gaining, but that downturn recently on all three charts could well be indicative of a leveling off or even a downturn. His rise in the early going is probably of people slowly getting acquainted with him and his his message, while the downturn could mean he has reached a saturation point, or even people starting to turn away.

I wouldn't get to excited either way.

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Response to CajunBlazer (Reply #13)

Mon Dec 14, 2015, 02:07 PM

17. I mention this in another post...

...but Bernie's number of Iowa appearances, and the scale of those appearances--were drastically reduced at the end of last summer. Furthermore, during the summer, Bernie had enormous crowds (10,000 - 25,000) at rallies all over the country in Phoenix, Madison, Houston, Seattle and Portland.

Then he stopped doing those impressive large-scale rallies.

I think this is the precise reason why his numbers dropped off in Iowa. He's within 9 points now--despite Hillary's mountains of endorsements and media stories declaring her inevitable. It's really incredible.

I don't know the reasoning behind the rally decreases (I'm guessing that it was to preserve funds), but he can get right back where he was if he resurrects those large-scale rallies and appearances in Iowa elsewhere. He gained in the polls because of them. He can get all of that back.

It's almost as if those rallies across the country were to test the waters. Bernie found out real quick that he can fill stadiums.

I think he will ramp up those large rallies again very soon--especially during the last three weeks before the Iowa caucuses, and those optics will be magnificent.

We could see a Sanders surge. It's very exciting!

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Response to CoffeeCat (Reply #17)

Mon Dec 14, 2015, 02:22 PM

18. Rallies are not indictive of voter support - they indictive of voter passion.

Since everyone has only one vote, passionate people don't help their candidates anymore than other voters unless they are willing to work hard for their candidate.

By now I would think that just about everyone who will attend the Iowa caucus has now knows about Sanders and his message. (People who attend caucus are tuned into politics.) Now it is going to be about whether the potential voters embrace or reject Bernie's message.

I just don't see how Bernie is going to get more people to embrace his stances that he hasn't done already.

And don't give me the Obama story, Bernie Sanders is not Barack Obama.

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Response to CajunBlazer (Reply #18)

Mon Dec 14, 2015, 03:50 PM

27. That's absolutely untrue when it comes to political rallies in Iowa

I've been through many Iowa caucus cycles and I can tell you that Iowa rallies--especially the ones that are held 3-4 weeks before the Iowa caucuses--are not simply love fest for the candidates.

What you have written is false.

Because we have caucuses, and not a vote--where voters actively debate, discuss and give speeches about the candidates--we consider it our duty to be informed about these candidates. We consider it our duty to be prepared.

That's exactly what did in 08. We were all told that Hillary was inevitable, but we did the research and attended the events, and that is how Obama went from 4 percent to winning the Iowa caucuses by 8 points.

Most candidates will meet with voters after the rallies and answer questions. There is a lot of engagement with these candidates. I've been able to meet most Democratic candidates and even ask them questions. We don't stand out in freezing temps in January for our health. We want to see them in person and hear what they have to say--and you can learn a great deal about them by how they interact with us.

Sure, there are a lot of supporters from the campaign offices that attend these rallies. Many are all ready supporting the candidates, but Iowans attend these events to listen and learn so they are prepared to caucus.



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Response to CoffeeCat (Reply #27)

Mon Dec 14, 2015, 04:12 PM

31. From what I have seen of the Sanders rally's - including those in Iowa...

they are love fests.

Listen again, carefully this time: Bernie Sanders is not Barack Obama.

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Response to CajunBlazer (Reply #31)

Mon Dec 14, 2015, 04:29 PM

32. You obviously don't understand the dynamics of Iowa politics...

We attend those events to vette the candidates.

My Facebook feed is filled with people who are just now starting to attend political events. And most of them are going to see all three candidates. And they'll see them multiple times.

In 08, my husband and I attended 20 political events in Iowa.

It's not unusual for Iowans to attend several events.

We like a good mix too. We love the rallies, but we also try to catch them at smaller venues.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Dec 14, 2015, 01:50 PM

15. Kickin' for Bernie!

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Dec 14, 2015, 01:51 PM

16. My husband and I saw this Iowa poll and we hugged. GREAT news for Bernie!

Six weeks before the Iowa caucuses, and Bernie Sanders is within single digits of Hillary Clinton.

Holy crap! So fantastic!

Bernie began in Iowa polling at 4 percent in the spring. And he's whittled Clinton's lead to within 9 points.

Bernie can win this. There is no doubt in my mind.

Something else worth noting. During the summer, Bernie was attracting extremely large crowds in Iowa.
And his polls surged. Then, he stopped doing large events in Iowa has mainly focused on small-event venues. The number of Iowa Bernie appearances dropped off after the summer, as well.

I imagine that Bernie saw that he could draw 1000+ crowds in Iowa and decided to save those large-scale events for the last few weeks of the Iowa campaign season--when those optics would have the greatest impact. Most Iowans make up their minds a few weeks prior to the caucuses, and they attend those rallies as a way to glean more information about the candidate.

It is almost certain that we will see a Sanders resurgence, once he ramps up his Iowa rallies/events again. He surged in the summer when he had those rallies. Of course, he can do it again!

As an Iowan, I am truly excited about the next several weeks. This is going to be a brutal fight until caucus night. Nothing is certain, for either camp, and I think both camps understand that very well.

This Iowa poll, conducted by Ann Selzer, is known as the "gold standard" in Iowa polling. She polls Iowans who are "likely to participate in the Democratic caucuses". Therefore, she polls those who haven't caucused before, the younger voters and Iowa Independents who will cross over and vote for Democratic candidates. Bernie leads in all of those categories, according to this Iowa poll ( I knew that Monmouth Poll was a load of horseshit, and it truly was. We can all relegate that piece of crap to the poll trash heap).

I'd rather that Bernie be leading of course. However, the results of this poll are such terrific news!

Bernie is within striking distance and he can win Iowa! He's been consistently ahead in NH. So exciting!

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Response to CoffeeCat (Reply #16)

Mon Dec 14, 2015, 02:24 PM

19. Let's talk about how excited you are March 2nd

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Response to CajunBlazer (Reply #19)

Mon Dec 14, 2015, 07:16 PM

34. Yes, Bernie will march on, collecting delegates faster than Clinton loses her superdelegates who

 

sees the writing on the wall if they want to be elected/re-elected in 2016, grab on Bernie's coattails!

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Response to CajunBlazer (Reply #19)

Mon Dec 14, 2015, 07:51 PM

35. Ah yes, the DU Cold-Water Brigade!

I see the DU Cold Water Brigade, right on time!!

Anytime a Sanders supporter is happy about news or a poll, they're on task--throwing that cold water on anything positive!

"That's for smiling, Sanders supporter!"

You guys are silly!

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Response to CoffeeCat (Reply #35)

Tue Dec 15, 2015, 12:58 AM

40. Humm.... Reality equals cold water splashed in the faces of Sander's supporters

How unkind it is to point out the truth the the self deceived.

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Response to CoffeeCat (Reply #16)

Mon Dec 14, 2015, 07:15 PM

33. I'm so glad that you are doing the important work up in Iowa.

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Response to CoffeeCat (Reply #16)

Mon Dec 14, 2015, 08:02 PM

38. There are a couple of things about the Iowa caucuses that I'm wondering about

And they are, how many convention delegates are at stake, and is it a winner-take-all thing, or are the delegates pro-rated?

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Response to Art_from_Ark (Reply #38)

Tue Dec 15, 2015, 01:35 AM

41. Iowa has multi-level caucuses.

The ones that everyone is focusing on Feb. 1st are the district level caucuses. There are something like 1,774 throughout the state. At each of those caucuses those present cast their votes for the candidate of their choice and those results is what you will see published the evening of 2/1/16.

However, that really isn't the important part - there is the subsequent vote in each district caucus to elect a person who will represent the district caucus at the county caucus. There are 99 district caucuses. Then each county caucus will elect people to represent the county caucus at the State Convention. The State Convention will then elect the 30 delegates to the Democratic. The process of select the Iowa delegates will not be completed until July.

I support Hillary, and it looks like she is in a good position now to win in Iowa, but regardless of who wins in that state, I consider the entire Iowa process a sham. For one thing it is a closed caucus system. Unless you are a registered Democrat or a registered Republican you can not attend the Democratic or the Republican caucuses. There are more voters registered as "No party" (or independents) in Iowa than there are either registered Democrats or Republicans. They can participate in neither caucus. So the largest segment of the Iowa voter population cannot participate in the caucus process.

In addition, the district caucuses take a lot time and effort to attend. They may last two hours so attendance is usually low. So the results for both the Democratic and Republican caucuses on 2/1 will represent only a small percentage of registered Iowa voters. In addition, the vote totals you will see reported is really just the result of straw polls, they mean nothing. The votes that really count are for delegates to the county conventions. Caucuses with very large attendance send the same same number representatives to the county caucuses as caucuses with light attendance.

IMHO the entire process sucks big time!

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Dec 14, 2015, 02:25 PM

20. In second place and fading fast?

 

Sweet!

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Response to workinclasszero (Reply #20)

Mon Dec 14, 2015, 07:54 PM

36. Sanders started out at .8 percent in Iowa!

The first Iowa poll ever done had Hillary just above 60 percent. Bernie was at .8 percent. Not even 1 percent!

I'm happy, and the only thing that is fading is Hillary's inevitability.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Dec 14, 2015, 02:47 PM

22. kick! n/t

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Dec 14, 2015, 03:15 PM

23. Ons statistic SCREAMED at me.

"* Sanders has a 27% lead over Clinton among those under 45 years old"



If THIS trend continues, the Democratic Party will very soon become an obsolete group of old, white men & women screaming at the kids to get off their lawn and keep taxes low on The RICH.

If Bernie doesn't win the Dem Primary THIS time, he has given voice to a movement that won't Go Away soon. It will be even stronger in 2020.
IF the Democratic Party continues to ridicule The Working Class and Democratic Wing and appoint near-Republicans, it WILL ride its arrogance and pomposity into obscurity. As far as Working People and the Poor, the Party evaporated for them in 1992, but it has taken 20 years for most to wake up and start listening to Bernie.

Maybe our kids will save us from the depredations of a corrupt Political System and Perpetual WAR. We sure don't deserve it. We didn't do much for them.

I am optimistic, and somewhere, Woodie is smiling at the Millennials. I am too!
It will take a long time to repair the damage done by Republicans and near-Republicans since the 80s.

One Day at a time.
One Person at a time.

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Response to bvar22 (Reply #23)

Mon Dec 14, 2015, 03:18 PM

25. amen!

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Response to bvar22 (Reply #23)

Mon Dec 14, 2015, 03:32 PM

26. I hope you are right.

However, if Sanders doesn't get any real traction or if it continues to look like the fix is in, these younger folks may be turned off of politics for decades.

I like your outlook better, let's stick with it!

Cheers.

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Response to Juicy_Bellows (Reply #26)

Mon Dec 14, 2015, 04:00 PM

29. Sanders already has "real traction"

He started polling in single digits.
Bernie is leading a movement that most recently manifested itself publicly in OWS.
Some of my friends from OWS still don't trust the Democratic Party after getting shafted a couple of years ago, but are willing to help Bernie.

Political Campaigns and Political Parties DIE, especially when they no longer represent those they claim,
movements for justice and fairness LIVE forever. The Sanders Movement, OWS, Code Pink, are ALL part of the same movement that my great grandfather and great Uncles shed blood for in the 20s and 30s...
Equal Rights, Equal Protections, Equal Access, and Equal Benefits for the Working Class & Poor,
so that [font size=3]"security and prosperity can be established for all—regardless of station, race, or creed".[/font]-- FDR, 1944



..."for all—regardless of station, race, or creed".

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Response to bvar22 (Reply #29)

Mon Dec 14, 2015, 04:07 PM

30. Yes and perhaps my real traction comment was ill-advised.

I mean, if he can snag Iowa and NH we got ourselves a real chance.

Go Bernie!

We need that initial momentum out of the gate - keep support high and keep up the fight!

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Response to Juicy_Bellows (Reply #30)

Tue Dec 15, 2015, 01:52 AM

42. That momentum (if it ever builds) will hit a brick wall in Nevata & South Carolina

In Nevada Bernie is currently 16% behind Hillary and in South Carolina he is 44% behind according to the latest polls for those two states.

Then on March 1st comes the next group of primaries with a bunch of Southern states where he has no chance at all. However, that day Bernie does have a chance of wining the tiny number of delegates who will represent Vermont But that is the only state where he has a good chance of winning.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Dec 14, 2015, 03:17 PM

24. No it's not

But it's in a good position. It will all depend on getting supporters to the caucuses.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Dec 14, 2015, 03:52 PM

28. Campaigning against the media? lol. nt.

 

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Mon Dec 14, 2015, 07:55 PM

37. Save the energy. It's over .. Hillary is winning

 

The handwriting is on the wall.

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Response to cosmicone (Reply #37)

Mon Dec 14, 2015, 08:46 PM

39. Hillary is winning just like Dean 2004, Gingrich 2012, Giuliani 2008, and Clinton 2008 were winning

at this point in their primaries, and we all fondly recall the general election campaigns after those candidates who each counted their chickens as if they had already hatched.

"Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it."

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #39)

Tue Dec 15, 2015, 01:54 AM

43. The chickens are already hatching...

I see peck holes in shells already.

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Response to CajunBlazer (Reply #43)

Tue Dec 15, 2015, 02:53 AM

44. Here in my country, we allow the voters to have a say. Who selects the queen in your country?

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Tue Dec 15, 2015, 12:26 PM

45. Yup, exactly where it should be...

On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton continues to be the clear favorite in Iowa. She’s at 52% to 34% for Bernie Sanders and 7% for Martin O’Malley. Sanders leads 47/40 with younger voters, but that’s not enough to make up for Clinton holding a 64/20 advantage with seniors. She leads by pretty similar margins of 19 points with liberals at 56/37 and 22 points with moderates at 52/30. And she also has comparable leads with both women (21 points at 55/34) and men (15 points at 49/34). Clinton’s favorability rating is 73/19 while Sanders’ comes in at 65/23.


http://tinyurl.com/zjuvs9u

Sid

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Tue Dec 15, 2015, 01:32 PM

46. Yep. Down 32, just where he needs to be.

Your tinkering with the data set not with standing down 32 really doesn't look good. I realize that Clinton's lead is probably exaggerated, but it sure deflates your OP.

Loras poll results

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Response to Persondem (Reply #46)

Tue Dec 15, 2015, 04:20 PM

47. Either the Des Moines Register polling is right or the Loras polling is right. The Des Moines

Register has an excellent track record and Loras has no real track record.

You can believe whichever poll you like, I have no stake in what poll you find reliable and what poll you find unreliable, but the trend is still way upward for Sanders even in the goofy Loras polling. In the Loras poll from last month, for example, Clinton was up by 38% and in the current poll her lead has significantly dropped.

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