Sept. 7: Polls Find Hints of Obama Convention Bounce

[struggle4progress]

By NATE SILVER

... In the Gallup national tracking poll, Mr. Obama moved into a three-point lead over Mitt Romney, up from one point on Thursday.

What’s a bit more worrisome for Mr. Romney is that Gallup’s reporting of the head-to-head results in its poll occurs over a lengthy seven-day window, meaning that only a minority of the interviews in the poll were conducted before the major speeches at the Democratic convention.

In fact, most of the interviews in the poll were conducted just after the Republican convention in Tampa, Fla., a period in which Mr. Romney should have been enjoying a convention bounce of his own ...

It’s certainly important to be cautious when interpreting one-day changes in the polls. But so far, this data is tracking toward a decent-size convention bounce for Mr. Obama. It’s quite unlikely, in fact, that the movement in the polls reflects statistical noise alone ...

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/07/sept-7-polls-find-hints-of-obama-convention-bounce/#more-34231

[abumbyanyothername]

1. The data are looking very good

for President Obama.

I can't really imagine anything moving these polls in a rMoney-ish direction right now.

[progressivebydesign]

2. So how could it even be close? The President is drawing in massive crowds of 10-15k at public venues

and romney has to have an event today at a small christian college in the most conservative County in Iowa, and has to send out emails begging for students to come and get 'free mitts and balls" or something, then has to get local christian high/jr highs to bus kids in to fill the seats.

Has anyone seen a really BIG Romney event that was not the convention?? How could they even say it's close? I saw two Romney stickers back in early summer. Have not seen one since in my republican leaning, military and military retiree area.

[TroyD]

3. Be that as it may . . .

Romney is still close to Obama in the National polls.

[LiberalFighter]

5. National polls don't matter. Popular votes don't matter.

It is what is happening in each state and how their electoral votes will add up.

[treestar]

4. More people watched the Dem convention too

Joe and the Prez do have more charisma and nobody remembers anything from the R convention but the much-used-for-ridicule chair. Every cartoonist has done at least one on that chair. Which was supposedly the Prez, so Eastwood only helped the Prez with that shenanigan.