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Tue Dec 15, 2015, 08:16 PM

In 2008, Clinton was at 29.4%, Obama was at 27.7%, Edwards was at 25.5% the NIGHT BEFORE the caucus



The very next day, Obama won with 10% more of the vote than the polling forecast just THE NIGHT BEFORE.

Edwards came in second with 4% more support than forecast just THE NIGHT BEFORE.

Clinton came in THIRD place, two spots below where her supporters said she would finish (and it was not even particularly close between Obama and Clinton).

A race where the candidates are within 10% THE NIGHT BEFORE the caucus is a tight race.

A race where the candidates are within 10% SIX WEEKS BEFORE the caucus is an extremely tight race.

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Reply In 2008, Clinton was at 29.4%, Obama was at 27.7%, Edwards was at 25.5% the NIGHT BEFORE the caucus (Original post)
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 OP
reformist2 Dec 2015 #1
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #2
FloridaBlues Dec 2015 #4
reformist2 Dec 2015 #7
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #19
JVS Dec 2015 #28
Gothmog Dec 2015 #3
reformist2 Dec 2015 #8
misterhighwasted Dec 2015 #11
reformist2 Dec 2015 #12
misterhighwasted Dec 2015 #13
Gothmog Dec 2015 #15
jfern Dec 2015 #21
joshcryer Dec 2015 #23
Gothmog Dec 2015 #24
brooklynite Dec 2015 #5
reformist2 Dec 2015 #9
AngryParakeet Dec 2015 #6
misterhighwasted Dec 2015 #10
Gothmog Dec 2015 #25
BeyondGeography Dec 2015 #14
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #17
BeyondGeography Dec 2015 #36
SidDithers Dec 2015 #16
JI7 Dec 2015 #18
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #20
Betty Karlson Dec 2015 #22
Renew Deal Dec 2015 #26
Ed Suspicious Dec 2015 #29
Renew Deal Dec 2015 #31
Ed Suspicious Dec 2015 #32
workinclasszero Dec 2015 #27
misterhighwasted Dec 2015 #33
Thinkingabout Dec 2015 #30
in_cog_ni_to Dec 2015 #34
JaneyVee Dec 2015 #35
Sunlei Dec 2015 #37
Tom Rinaldo Dec 2015 #38

Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Tue Dec 15, 2015, 08:21 PM

1. Obama won because his supporters were more enthusiastic, more persuasive.


That's the trouble with caucuses... people actually talk to each other.

The same dynamic will be in play next month between the Bernie supporters and the Hillary supporters.

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Response to reformist2 (Reply #1)

Tue Dec 15, 2015, 08:41 PM

2. If it comes to enthusiasm, Sanders supporters have plenty and Clinton, well, not so much according

to the polling of her supporters, the crowd sizes, the number of individual donors, etc.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #2)

Tue Dec 15, 2015, 08:48 PM

4. Please stop comparing these two races it's apples to lemons

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Response to FloridaBlues (Reply #4)

Tue Dec 15, 2015, 09:01 PM

7. One of the contenders is the old-guard party choice, the other is an unknown liberal senator....


Sounds just like 2008 to me!

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Response to FloridaBlues (Reply #4)

Wed Dec 16, 2015, 02:09 AM

19. It was different in that Clinton was a much better liked and more widely trusted candidate in 2008

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Response to reformist2 (Reply #1)

Wed Dec 16, 2015, 09:46 AM

28. It not just enthusiasm. Organization is important.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Tue Dec 15, 2015, 08:47 PM

3. The 2008 Iowa victory was more meaningful for Obama due to demographics

The above analysis ignores the fact that the 2008 victory by President Obama was more meaningful than a victory by Sanders would be due to the demographics. Iowa is 90+% white and Sanders is only polling well in states that are mainly white states. Your prior thread identified four such states http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251894731 President Obama was expected to do well with African American voters and the experts were surprised at how well he did with a mainly white electorate. A Sanders non-defeat in Iowa is not that meaningful given the demographics of Iowa. Nate Silver looked at this a while back and came to the conclusion that Sanders victories in Iowa and New Hampshire would be largely meaningless unless and until Sanders started attracting African American voters. In the We Got Berned article, 538 makes clear that nothing has really changed, http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-new-hampshire/

So why do I still think Sanders is a factional candidate? He hasnít made any inroads with non-white voters ó in particular black voters, a crucial wing of the Democratic coalition and whose support was a big part of President Obamaís toppling of Clinton in the 2008 primary. Not only are African-Americans the majority of Democratic voters in the South Carolina primary (a crucial early contest), they make up somewhere between 19 percent and 24 percent of Democrats nationwide. In the past two YouGov polls, Sanders has averaged just 5 percent with black voters. Ipsosís weekly tracking poll has him at an average of only 7 percent over the past two weeks. Fox News (the only live-interview pollster to publish results among non-white voters in July and August) had Clinton leading Sanders 62-10 among non-white Democrats in mid-July and 65-14 in mid-August. Clintonís edge with non-whites held even as Sanders cut her overall lead from 40 percentage points to 19.....

But even if you put aside those metrics, Sanders is running into the problem that other insurgent Democrats have in past election cycles. You can win Iowa relying mostly on white liberals. You can win New Hampshire. But as Gary Hart and Bill Bradley learned, you canít win a Democratic nomination without substantial support from African-Americans.

This article is a little dated but the Demographics have not changed. Iowa and NH are 90+% white states and are not representative of the base of the Democratic party. To date, no polling has shown that Sanders has made any meaningful inroads on the non-white base of the Democratic party.

Sanders victories in Iowa and New Hampshire are not going to change the dynamics of the race unless Sanders can broaden the base of voters who find him attractive. As you know Texas has almost three times the number of delegates at stake as Iowa and New Hampshire combined and I have yet to see any polling or data showing that Sanders is going to do well in Texas.

Finally due to proportional representation rules, a "victory" by Sanders in Iowa and New Hampshire will net him only a few more delegates than Hillary Clinton while there are many State Senate Districts in Texas where Sanders will likely not break the 15% threshold to get any of the delegates being allocated in such districts.

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Response to Gothmog (Reply #3)

Tue Dec 15, 2015, 09:04 PM

8. I see no reason why voters of color will stick with Hillary. They owe her nothing.

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Response to reformist2 (Reply #8)

Tue Dec 15, 2015, 09:17 PM

11. "They" would disagree with you.

Their voice will shout it to you on both Primary & GE election days.
Dismiss all you want. Their unified voices for HRC are louder than yours.

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Response to misterhighwasted (Reply #11)

Tue Dec 15, 2015, 09:20 PM

12. Half of them don't even know who Bernie is yet. I'm confident he will win them over.

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Response to reformist2 (Reply #12)

Tue Dec 15, 2015, 09:25 PM

13. Yet? Well he's been out there for about 9 months.

A good campaign would have known where it needed to be & when.
He has about 50 days. Good luck bernie.

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Response to reformist2 (Reply #8)

Wed Dec 16, 2015, 12:32 AM

15. And yet there has been no movement in the polls supporting your belief

When do you expect this change to occur? It will too late after Super Tuesday

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Response to Gothmog (Reply #3)

Wed Dec 16, 2015, 02:14 AM

21. It could help Bernie more than Obama

since the media gave Obama a lot of coverage and has been ignoring Bernie. A lot of people haven't heard about him.

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Response to Gothmog (Reply #3)

Wed Dec 16, 2015, 04:22 AM

23. This is fair but I think the scenario relies on how Clinton's campaign reacts.

Double wins in Iowa and New Hampshire for Sanders could send Clinton's campaign into disarray if they panic, and the media will be sure to give Sanders well deserved coverage if he won. Clinton would obviously still win South Carolina but the Nevada caucus could become a coin toss with Sanders gaining momentum.

It's still going to be an extremely hard fought battle for Sanders whether he wins Iowa and New Hampshire, but to act as if it's a non-issue is a bit unfair. The bad thing for his campaign is that a lot of Southern states will be playing a role after Nevada. He could come out of Colorado with an easy win after Colorado but the other states should give Clinton much momentum.

Basically I'm saying that I think this thing has the real potential of going into April if Sanders wins Iowa and New Hampshire.

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Response to joshcryer (Reply #23)

Wed Dec 16, 2015, 09:36 AM

24. I am volunteering with the Victory Counsel program

I have volunteered for Kerry Edwards and the Obama voter protection teams and I am truly impressed with the organization of the Clinton team. This is a well organized team that will not panic. Again, there is no need for the Clinton Campaign to panic in that Sanders is only polling well in a handful of states which are not reflective of the demographics of the Democratic party.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Tue Dec 15, 2015, 08:51 PM

5. Obama also had the financial reaources to pay for a ground game...

...and a lot of political endorsements to help encourage turnout.

How many people will Killer Mike send to a Caucus site?

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #5)

Tue Dec 15, 2015, 09:05 PM

9. Nobody needs to "send" Bernie supports anywhere... they will show up in droves on their own!

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Tue Dec 15, 2015, 08:56 PM

6. 15% Threshold...

When Richardson and Biden supporters didnt meet the 15% Threshold required in the Iowa Caucus(another reason to hate the Iowa Caucus)they went to Edwards and Obama. Notice Hillarys numbers were spot on.

Also the RCP average had Obama winning, not loosing.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html#polls

One thing that bothers me about your threads is either you completely ignore, misinterpret or cherry pick polls to get a desired narrative.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Tue Dec 15, 2015, 09:13 PM

10. Irrelevant in 2016. No Obama nor Edwards.

Then, isn't now.
Moot point.

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Response to misterhighwasted (Reply #10)

Wed Dec 16, 2015, 09:37 AM

25. You are using facts

Facts get in the way of the theory being asserted

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Tue Dec 15, 2015, 09:26 PM

14. He was +7 in the final DMR poll

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/12/31/obama-pulls-ahead-in-register-poll/

They called it, and everyone in the O camp here was soaring when that poll came out because the Register had the 2004 caucus nailed as well.

If Bernie is leading in next month's final DMR poll, you'll probably have something to cheer about, and vice versa.

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Response to BeyondGeography (Reply #14)

Wed Dec 16, 2015, 02:08 AM

17. Obama wasn't leading the DMR poll 6 weeks before the caucus.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #17)

Wed Dec 16, 2015, 10:42 AM

36. Wha?

How's the weather down there? Too warm for December here in NY.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Wed Dec 16, 2015, 12:38 AM

16. ...




Sid

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Wed Dec 16, 2015, 02:09 AM

18. and she still ended up winning New Hampshire

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Response to JI7 (Reply #18)

Wed Dec 16, 2015, 02:11 AM

20. New Hampshire? Didn't she win the nomination and go on to beat McCain in the general election?

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Wed Dec 16, 2015, 03:51 AM

22. Most important information here:

 

A race where the candidates are within 10% THE NIGHT BEFORE the caucus is a tight race.

A race where the candidates are within 10% SIX WEEKS BEFORE the caucus is an extremely tight race.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Wed Dec 16, 2015, 09:42 AM

26. The caucus system makes Iowa a little bit unpredictable

But there isn't as much room for horse trading this time around because O'Malley is unlikely to get above 15% anywhere.

Also Sanders does not have Obamas ground game.

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Response to Renew Deal (Reply #26)

Wed Dec 16, 2015, 09:51 AM

29. Horse trading.

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Response to Ed Suspicious (Reply #29)

Wed Dec 16, 2015, 10:06 AM

31. Fixed. Thanks

Auto-correct got me.

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Response to Renew Deal (Reply #31)

Wed Dec 16, 2015, 10:07 AM

32. It happens.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Wed Dec 16, 2015, 09:45 AM

27. One more time......

 

This guy is NOT...


This guy!

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Response to workinclasszero (Reply #27)

Wed Dec 16, 2015, 10:12 AM

33. Thankfully "that guy" will NEVER be called to negotiate, as US President

..any kind of deal where he must compromise. Can you imagine what a massive cluster-F it would bring? "That guy" all mad faced & pounding his fists & demanding that they do it his way cuz "the deal doesn't go far enough"?

Wtf. He has zero diplomatic skills.
To even compare "that guy" to the intellectual master of diplomacy of President Obama, is a laughable joke.

Oh ya, just what we need at the table of warring world leaders. That perpetually mad guy that refuses to even address the critical issues this world faces, with more than a cool noncontroversial oneliner, then scampers off to another subject .
"That guy" is an Epic Faliure on both the National and especially, the World Stage.

He would be a frighteningly massive faliure where the slightest diplomatic skills are critical.

He has none.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Wed Dec 16, 2015, 10:00 AM

30. Did Sanders ever give the keynote speech at the DNC?

No, Obama gained lots of respect, people started looking at Obama after this speech. He was a senator who was only in congress for eight years, Sanders has been in congress for twenty five years. Now similarly Hillary was in congress for eight years, based on the thinking used here Hillary will be the winner by a ling shot because her poll numbers are higher this campaign and there isn't a third person who is pulling a third of the vote. Twenty five years of a congressional voting record is not Sanders friend, he isn't an outsider.

The more people gets to know Sanders the more it is realized he is not as qualified as Hillary. Try another appeal, this one is not good enough.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Wed Dec 16, 2015, 10:14 AM

34. INTERNET SUPPORTERS will be voting and there's MILLIONS of us.

Bernie doesn't lack a ground game or enthusiasm. That's just more HRH supporters wishful thinking. Bernie's only 9 points behind in Iowa and 10 points ahead in NH. He's going to win because his supporters on DU, Reddit, Instagram, Twitter, Facebook, etc.. Know it and are ALL voting...even in Iowa! Onliners KNOW THE IMPORTANCE OF VOTING IN THIS ELECTION.

REMEMBER - 87.4% of the population now uses the INTERNET and that's where they get all their news and information. This is where I get my news and info. I don't watch CORPORATE OWNED MSM that shills for HRH and neither does the MAJORITY of people in this country. Who owns the Internet? BERNIE.

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Wed Dec 16, 2015, 10:16 AM

35. All within margin of error.

 

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Wed Dec 16, 2015, 10:46 AM

37. This primary republicans will vote in their own primary because they have a giant Trump problem

Isn't it wonderful

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Wed Dec 16, 2015, 10:54 AM

38. On Pre going to the polls Polls

Here are findings from a CBS national opinion poll taken between January 12th and January 15th 2004 (the Iowa Caucus was on January 19th hat year) sampling public support for Democratic Presidential candidates

1/12-15/04
Dean 24
Clark 12
Gephardt 11
Kerry 7
Edwards 5

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