In 2008, Clinton was at 29.4%, Obama was at 27.7%, Edwards was at 25.5% the NIGHT BEFORE the caucus

That's the trouble with caucuses... people actually talk to each other.

The same dynamic will be in play next month between the Bernie supporters and the Hillary supporters.

to the polling of her supporters, the crowd sizes, the number of individual donors, etc.

Sounds just like 2008 to me!

The above analysis ignores the fact that the 2008 victory by President Obama was more meaningful than a victory by Sanders would be due to the demographics. Iowa is 90+% white and Sanders is only polling well in states that are mainly white states. Your prior thread identified four such states http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251894731 President Obama was expected to do well with African American voters and the experts were surprised at how well he did with a mainly white electorate. A Sanders non-defeat in Iowa is not that meaningful given the demographics of Iowa. Nate Silver looked at this a while back and came to the conclusion that Sanders victories in Iowa and New Hampshire would be largely meaningless unless and until Sanders started attracting African American voters. In the We Got Berned article, 538 makes clear that nothing has really changed, http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-new-hampshire/


This article is a little dated but the Demographics have not changed. Iowa and NH are 90+% white states and are not representative of the base of the Democratic party. To date, no polling has shown that Sanders has made any meaningful inroads on the non-white base of the Democratic party.

Sanders victories in Iowa and New Hampshire are not going to change the dynamics of the race unless Sanders can broaden the base of voters who find him attractive. As you know Texas has almost three times the number of delegates at stake as Iowa and New Hampshire combined and I have yet to see any polling or data showing that Sanders is going to do well in Texas.

Finally due to proportional representation rules, a "victory" by Sanders in Iowa and New Hampshire will net him only a few more delegates than Hillary Clinton while there are many State Senate Districts in Texas where Sanders will likely not break the 15% threshold to get any of the delegates being allocated in such districts.

Their voice will shout it to you on both Primary & GE election days.
Dismiss all you want. Their unified voices for HRC are louder than yours.

A good campaign would have known where it needed to be & when.
He has about 50 days. Good luck bernie.

When do you expect this change to occur? It will too late after Super Tuesday

since the media gave Obama a lot of coverage and has been ignoring Bernie. A lot of people haven't heard about him.

Double wins in Iowa and New Hampshire for Sanders could send Clinton's campaign into disarray if they panic, and the media will be sure to give Sanders well deserved coverage if he won. Clinton would obviously still win South Carolina but the Nevada caucus could become a coin toss with Sanders gaining momentum.

It's still going to be an extremely hard fought battle for Sanders whether he wins Iowa and New Hampshire, but to act as if it's a non-issue is a bit unfair. The bad thing for his campaign is that a lot of Southern states will be playing a role after Nevada. He could come out of Colorado with an easy win after Colorado but the other states should give Clinton much momentum.

Basically I'm saying that I think this thing has the real potential of going into April if Sanders wins Iowa and New Hampshire.

I have volunteered for Kerry Edwards and the Obama voter protection teams and I am truly impressed with the organization of the Clinton team. This is a well organized team that will not panic. Again, there is no need for the Clinton Campaign to panic in that Sanders is only polling well in a handful of states which are not reflective of the demographics of the Democratic party.

...and a lot of political endorsements to help encourage turnout.

How many people will Killer Mike send to a Caucus site?

When Richardson and Biden supporters didnt meet the 15% Threshold required in the Iowa Caucus(another reason to hate the Iowa Caucus)they went to Edwards and Obama. Notice Hillarys numbers were spot on.

Also the RCP average had Obama winning, not loosing.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html#polls

One thing that bothers me about your threads is either you completely ignore, misinterpret or cherry pick polls to get a desired narrative.

Then, isn't now.
Moot point.

Facts get in the way of the theory being asserted

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/12/31/obama-pulls-ahead-in-register-poll/

They called it, and everyone in the O camp here was soaring when that poll came out because the Register had the 2004 caucus nailed as well.

If Bernie is leading in next month's final DMR poll, you'll probably have something to cheer about, and vice versa.

How's the weather down there? Too warm for December here in NY.

Sid

A race where the candidates are within 10% THE NIGHT BEFORE the caucus is a tight race.

A race where the candidates are within 10% SIX WEEKS BEFORE the caucus is an extremely tight race.

But there isn't as much room for horse trading this time around because O'Malley is unlikely to get above 15% anywhere.

Also Sanders does not have Obamas ground game.

Auto-correct got me.

This guy is NOT...


This guy!

..any kind of deal where he must compromise. Can you imagine what a massive cluster-F it would bring? "That guy" all mad faced & pounding his fists & demanding that they do it his way cuz "the deal doesn't go far enough"?

Wtf. He has zero diplomatic skills.
To even compare "that guy" to the intellectual master of diplomacy of President Obama, is a laughable joke.

Oh ya, just what we need at the table of warring world leaders. That perpetually mad guy that refuses to even address the critical issues this world faces, with more than a cool noncontroversial oneliner, then scampers off to another subject .
"That guy" is an Epic Faliure on both the National and especially, the World Stage.

He would be a frighteningly massive faliure where the slightest diplomatic skills are critical.

He has none.

No, Obama gained lots of respect, people started looking at Obama after this speech. He was a senator who was only in congress for eight years, Sanders has been in congress for twenty five years. Now similarly Hillary was in congress for eight years, based on the thinking used here Hillary will be the winner by a ling shot because her poll numbers are higher this campaign and there isn't a third person who is pulling a third of the vote. Twenty five years of a congressional voting record is not Sanders friend, he isn't an outsider.

The more people gets to know Sanders the more it is realized he is not as qualified as Hillary. Try another appeal, this one is not good enough.

Bernie doesn't lack a ground game or enthusiasm. That's just more HRH supporters wishful thinking. Bernie's only 9 points behind in Iowa and 10 points ahead in NH. He's going to win because his supporters on DU, Reddit, Instagram, Twitter, Facebook, etc.. Know it and are ALL voting...even in Iowa! Onliners KNOW THE IMPORTANCE OF VOTING IN THIS ELECTION.

REMEMBER - 87.4% of the population now uses the INTERNET and that's where they get all their news and information. This is where I get my news and info. I don't watch CORPORATE OWNED MSM that shills for HRH and neither does the MAJORITY of people in this country. Who owns the Internet? BERNIE.

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

Isn't it wonderful

Here are findings from a CBS national opinion poll taken between January 12th and January 15th 2004 (the Iowa Caucus was on January 19th hat year) sampling public support for Democratic Presidential candidates

1/12-15/04
Dean 24
Clark 12
Gephardt 11
Kerry 7
Edwards 5