PPP: Ohio/Obama 50, Romney 45

[aaaaaa5a]

PublicPolicyPolling ?@ppppolls
Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 50-45 on our post-convention survey of Ohio


http://twitter.com/ppppolls

[RedStateLiberal]

1. Ruh Roh Romney!

[fbguy_144]

16. ruh roh is right

he's doomed...

[oldhippydude]

2. thank you fast nerd person...

great news!!!

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

3. Still not enough. It shouldn't even be that close.

[Dawson Leery]

4. It's a "tie", which means Romney is leading, according to the pundit class.

[tjdee]

5. Yes but is Obama as high as he was in 2008?

I notice a strange effect, where it's almost like some media outlets expect him to trounce Romney.....but can he trounce himself???

[aaaaaa5a]

7. In 2008 it was Obama 51.5% to McCain 46.9%

So 52 to 47 is right in line with a poll that reads 50 to 45.

[Avalux]

6. Good News. The 50 threshold is important. n/t

[Robbins]

8. Ohio

Obama won It by 4 In 2008.For him to be ahead by 5 Is bad for Romney.

[jimlup]

9. If we get Ohio I think it may be game over for mittens...

I'm going to go to Huffington Post and spend some time looking for wins for R-money without Ohio. I bet there are not many...

OK... If I give NC to R-money and New Hampshire to Obama then Obama has many paths, Romney very few. If Obama gets Ohio he will also likely get VA and NV which is game over for Romney. Without Virginia (but assuming NV) Obama then needs two of three from WI, IO, CO...

Without NV and VA then Obama needs WI or both CO and IO.

Election ties if Romney holds the South and gets IO, NV and CO but Obama holds the North as in '08.

[johnnyrocket]

10. Are Ohioans finally getting their heads screwed on straight?

[bigdarryl]

11. Not really I still can't believe Romney leads Obama among Independents

[TroyD]

12. I don't get that, either

Very disappointing to see Romney ahead of Obama with Independents by any margin, and a bit of a point of concern.

I was also expecting the Ohio lead to be larger than 5 points based on the other reports (eg. internal polls) that we heard about saying Obama was in the high single digits in Ohio, like 9 points.

[aaaaaa5a]

13. In the crosstabs Obama was only winning 81% of the black vote.

Mitt Romney had 15% of the black vote. On election day 95% of the black vote will be in Obama's corner. This will elevate that number to the 7-9% you were looking for.

Pollsters have a difficult time with this topic because while the overall sample size gives them a margin of error of around 3%. Crosstab groups of minorities within a study carry a much higher margin of error factor because they are so small relative the population at large.

I can assure you Romney will have far less than 15% of the black vote on election day. The fact that Obama was leading by 5% with these facts buried in the crosstabs is a good sign.

Interestingly, this is a major factor as to why Obama generally outperforms his polling number. He was slightly behind in Indiana and North Carolina on election night in 2008 but won both states probably based largely on the above premise.


My bet is the internal polls for the Obama and Romney and campaigns make up for this statistical polling difficulty. And they just insert the very likely minority voting outcome. If you do that, you get the larger lead reported in internal campaign polls.

[TroyD]

14. Perhaps PPP's poll is underestimating Obama's support?

They're being accused on Twitter as it is of being biased in favor of Obama, so perhaps they are low-balling their polling figures so they can't be accused of bias.

Perhaps other pollsters may actually show a larger lead for Obama in Ohio.

[aaaaaa5a]

15. I have heard of that too.

Even on MSNBC's Chris Mathews show when they show PPP polls they are introduced by saying they have a democratic lean.


I have no idea where this comes from. If you look at their polls and results, they are generally very good. And certainly not Dem leaning. To call them the (R)asmussen of the left is unfair and not backed by statistics.

[TroyD]

18. PPP

As a general rule, PPP is very good. They had a good reputation in 2010.

This year Nate Silver does say they have had a slight Democratic-lean in some of their polls, but perhaps that has been corrected lately.

[WI_DEM]

17. I definitely don't buy into Romney getting 15% of the black vote in Ohio. No more than 5% I'd say.