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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBoom! Obama at 80.7% win probability.
Nate Silver: 318.8 EVs, 80.7% win probability. And perhaps more importantly, the Now-Cast has him even higher, at 83%!!!
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
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Boom! Obama at 80.7% win probability. (Original Post)
RedSpartan
Sep 2012
OP
Does this account for voting machine irregularities and voter suppression, etc.?
emsimon33
Sep 2012
#1
emsimon33
(3,128 posts)1. Does this account for voting machine irregularities and voter suppression, etc.?
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)5. Lets just enjoy the moment
TroyD
(4,551 posts)6. I believe so
I think Nate says that his model takes into account the possible reduction of Democratic votes in certain states based on the new ID laws etc.
Arctic Dave
(13,812 posts)2. BOOM!!
Now is the time to go full steam. Don't let up and hammer away.
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)3. I hope that is 80.7 with coattails.
Because the down ticket races for house and Senate will decide what the real agenda is.
tavalon
(27,985 posts)8. Coattails, yes, coattails, long, long coattails.
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)4. Bwahahahahahaha! Fuck Romney!
You are going down you fucking weasel! You and your piece of shit lying running mate!
Took the words right out of my mouth.
Kablooie
(18,571 posts)7. You mean there's a 20% chance Romney could win? That's scary.