AND...here we go - bounce showing up on RCP

[NRaleighLiberal]

this aggregate poll has been very slow to react typically...here it comes!

[BlueStreak]

1. Notice the breakout is starting 2 weeks earlier than in 2008

[k2qb3]

3. The Palin effect...

That whole surge and collapse last cycle was all about Palin, this time their pick doesn't appeal outside the base to begin with and bump lasted until he opened his mouth.

Chart looks way different in '08 without that Palin effect, comparisons should account for it.

[BlueStreak]

5. There was also the Bush meltdown, the McCain suspension, etc

So this is definitely a different year. But I don't see anything that will change the shape of it fundamentally. People liked McCain -- at least respected him. People dislike Romney.

People liked some of the positions McCain took. A large percentage of the country (70ish percent) is strongly opposed to most of the things that today's Republican Party, and Ryan in particular, is pushing. It isn't a question whether they can get the public to eat the dog food. It is a question of whether they can completely confuse everybody with their lies. I think it will be hard to keep those lies going for another 50 days.

[k2qb3]

6. Oh I agree...

I think things are looking good, I just don't think McCain ever really lead in '08, it was just the hopes many had for Palin and a good first impression that didn't stand scrutiny.

I actually think Romney is still really vulnerable, on foreign policy in particular which hasn't really been an issue yet, and all the stuff he's refusing to talk about. He's going to have to talk about it before the election or it becomes a problem to people who're willing to give him the benefit of the doubt today.

[Doctor Jack]

2. They need to get those old polls out of there

They are still counting polls from two weeks ago. He is probably closer to +5 now

[TroyD]

4. RCP is pretty fair

They may be right-leaning in their editorial content, but they basically report all the polls and average them together to get an accurate result. They were almost bang on in 2008.

They tend to keep polls in the average for a while until new ones replace them.

Right now the only poll in there showing Romney with a lead is the +1 ABC News poll from August. I agree that once more news polls come out, they will probably eliminate the pre-convention polls and Obama's average will go up.

Until today they only had the Gallup & Rasmussen polls to go on. There now is the CNN poll, but ABC, CBS & NBC don't have new polls out yet to replace the old ones yet.

I've noticed they don't include the Ipsos-Reuters poll, though.