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Romney campaign: Polls are liberal media lies
Romney campaign: Polls are liberal media liesSource: Salon.com
By Alex Pareene
Romney pollster Neil Newhouse sent a memo out to the press (it’s also been posted on Romney’s campaign site) arguing that the Republican nominee has the president right where he wants him. Is this because of their “internals” or something else polling-related? Not really!
While some voters will feel a bit of a sugar-high from the conventions, the basic structure of the race has not changed significantly. The reality of the Obama economy will reassert itself as the ultimate downfall of the Obama Presidency, and Mitt Romney will win this race.
In his acceptance speech, President Obama did not offer any solutions for the millions of Americans unemployed or underemployed. But his convention speech was not the only big letdown to voters, as Americans also dealt with yet another dismal jobs report last week. President Obama is the only president in modern American history to stand before the American people asking for re-election with this many Americans struggling to find work. The key numbers in this election are the 43 straight months of 8% or higher unemployment, the 23 million Americans struggling to find work, and the 47 million Americans who are on food stamps.
So it’s still the economy.
Here’s the extent of the polling data that the memo actually mentions: “Wisconsin is now in play,” one poll shows the race in New Mexico “closing,” and the Obama campaign is “laying the groundwork for a stealth withdrawal” from North Carolina. Those are not really the three crucial states this year. (Also, New Mexico still seems out of reach for Mr. Romney, barring an unexpected landslide.)
The memo also mentions “Historical Data,” by which they mean the 1980 election. “Political campaign historians will recall President Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan by a near double digit margin late in the fall in 1980,” Newhouse writes, although that’s not true. Reagan was polling ahead of Carter as early as the spring. The 1980 election remains a regular Romney campaign talking point, though, which is bizarre. I understand why the Republicans would like to pretend it’s 1980, but a 1980 election repeat requires not just a depressed economy and an out-of-touch liberal incumbent, but also an inspiring and likable challenger and — most important! — a major foreign crisis. Reagan didn’t just win on the strength of his debate performance. The Iranian hostage crisis basically sealed the deal. There’s nothing remotely equivalent sinking Obama. (Unless his apology tour emboldens our enemies, I guess? Still time for that to happen!) Furthermore, as John Sides says, in 1980 the GOP convention gave Reagan a huge lead that Carter never overcame — which, again, didn’t happen this time.
An unnamed Romney adviser sent a more colorful dispatch to the National Review’s Rich Lowry, who posted it under the mostly accurate headline “Horses**t.”
“It’s horses**t. Nobody in Boston thinks we’re going to lose. We’re in a tight race. We had a 4-5 point bounce after our convention and it evaporated when they had theirs. Now they have a 4-5 bounce. It’s going evaporate in September. We feel good about the map. We’re up with advertising in Wisconsin and I think North Carolina is going to come off the board. On Ohio, they’ve been spinning for months now that it’s out of reach.
In case you weren’t paying attention, it should be noted that the Romney campaign did not actually get a “4-5 point bounce” after their convention according to any pollster besides GOP-leaning Rasmussen.
This adviser goes on, naturally, to blame the liberal media. The liberal media is only reporting on tracking polls and state polls because they want Romney to lose!
While some voters will feel a bit of a sugar-high from the conventions, the basic structure of the race has not changed significantly. The reality of the Obama economy will reassert itself as the ultimate downfall of the Obama Presidency, and Mitt Romney will win this race.
In his acceptance speech, President Obama did not offer any solutions for the millions of Americans unemployed or underemployed. But his convention speech was not the only big letdown to voters, as Americans also dealt with yet another dismal jobs report last week. President Obama is the only president in modern American history to stand before the American people asking for re-election with this many Americans struggling to find work. The key numbers in this election are the 43 straight months of 8% or higher unemployment, the 23 million Americans struggling to find work, and the 47 million Americans who are on food stamps.
So it’s still the economy.
Here’s the extent of the polling data that the memo actually mentions: “Wisconsin is now in play,” one poll shows the race in New Mexico “closing,” and the Obama campaign is “laying the groundwork for a stealth withdrawal” from North Carolina. Those are not really the three crucial states this year. (Also, New Mexico still seems out of reach for Mr. Romney, barring an unexpected landslide.)
The memo also mentions “Historical Data,” by which they mean the 1980 election. “Political campaign historians will recall President Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan by a near double digit margin late in the fall in 1980,” Newhouse writes, although that’s not true. Reagan was polling ahead of Carter as early as the spring. The 1980 election remains a regular Romney campaign talking point, though, which is bizarre. I understand why the Republicans would like to pretend it’s 1980, but a 1980 election repeat requires not just a depressed economy and an out-of-touch liberal incumbent, but also an inspiring and likable challenger and — most important! — a major foreign crisis. Reagan didn’t just win on the strength of his debate performance. The Iranian hostage crisis basically sealed the deal. There’s nothing remotely equivalent sinking Obama. (Unless his apology tour emboldens our enemies, I guess? Still time for that to happen!) Furthermore, as John Sides says, in 1980 the GOP convention gave Reagan a huge lead that Carter never overcame — which, again, didn’t happen this time.
An unnamed Romney adviser sent a more colorful dispatch to the National Review’s Rich Lowry, who posted it under the mostly accurate headline “Horses**t.”
“It’s horses**t. Nobody in Boston thinks we’re going to lose. We’re in a tight race. We had a 4-5 point bounce after our convention and it evaporated when they had theirs. Now they have a 4-5 bounce. It’s going evaporate in September. We feel good about the map. We’re up with advertising in Wisconsin and I think North Carolina is going to come off the board. On Ohio, they’ve been spinning for months now that it’s out of reach.
In case you weren’t paying attention, it should be noted that the Romney campaign did not actually get a “4-5 point bounce” after their convention according to any pollster besides GOP-leaning Rasmussen.
This adviser goes on, naturally, to blame the liberal media. The liberal media is only reporting on tracking polls and state polls because they want Romney to lose!
READ THE WHOLE ARTICLE
23 replies
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you are just TOO funny!
That was a joke? Right? Oh wait...I hear it now!
Dog Whistle!
I saw the words Dick Morris. 
Won't be the first time I was wrong. If I'm lucky, won't be the last. 
The Romney Camp would complain that they are actually higher than the polls show, the media bias is skewing them in favor of the Democrats.
