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Sun Dec 20, 2015, 03:41 PM

New CBS News Iowa poll -- Sanders pulls within 5% of Clinton: Clinton 50%, Sanders 45%, O'Malley 4%

Link to CBS News December 2015 Battleground Tracker, Iowa.

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Reply New CBS News Iowa poll -- Sanders pulls within 5% of Clinton: Clinton 50%, Sanders 45%, O'Malley 4% (Original post)
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 OP
Scootaloo Dec 2015 #1
Fantastic Anarchist Dec 2015 #5
Scootaloo Dec 2015 #6
emulatorloo Dec 2015 #2
Scootaloo Dec 2015 #7
emulatorloo Dec 2015 #11
demwing Dec 2015 #3
ThePhilosopher04 Dec 2015 #4
demwing Dec 2015 #20
Punkingal Dec 2015 #35
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #55
demwing Dec 2015 #60
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #61
demwing Dec 2015 #62
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #68
demwing Dec 2015 #73
Matariki Dec 2015 #8
libdem4life Dec 2015 #9
Matariki Dec 2015 #10
emulatorloo Dec 2015 #12
libdem4life Dec 2015 #14
Matariki Dec 2015 #16
emulatorloo Dec 2015 #19
Juicy_Bellows Dec 2015 #27
SunSeeker Dec 2015 #30
jfern Dec 2015 #63
Betty Karlson Dec 2015 #71
Scootaloo Dec 2015 #13
libdem4life Dec 2015 #77
sabrina 1 Dec 2015 #15
in_cog_ni_to Dec 2015 #17
Juicy_Bellows Dec 2015 #28
in_cog_ni_to Dec 2015 #29
Proserpina Dec 2015 #36
karynnj Dec 2015 #18
CoffeeCat Dec 2015 #40
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #42
CoffeeCat Dec 2015 #45
Indepatriot Dec 2015 #21
pa28 Dec 2015 #22
reformist2 Dec 2015 #31
dorkzilla Dec 2015 #34
CoffeeCat Dec 2015 #41
thereismore Dec 2015 #49
jfern Dec 2015 #64
AgingAmerican Dec 2015 #66
pa28 Dec 2015 #69
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #70
MineralMan Dec 2015 #23
JonLeibowitz Dec 2015 #24
MineralMan Dec 2015 #25
artislife Dec 2015 #32
99th_Monkey Dec 2015 #39
ljm2002 Dec 2015 #26
TIME TO PANIC Dec 2015 #33
dinkytron Dec 2015 #47
TIME TO PANIC Dec 2015 #50
Proserpina Dec 2015 #37
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #57
AzDar Dec 2015 #38
BlueCheese Dec 2015 #43
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #44
CoffeeCat Dec 2015 #48
Betty Karlson Dec 2015 #72
thesquanderer Dec 2015 #46
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #54
thesquanderer Dec 2015 #56
Broward Dec 2015 #51
CoffeeCat Dec 2015 #52
Broward Dec 2015 #53
Motown_Johnny Dec 2015 #58
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #59
Motown_Johnny Dec 2015 #74
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #75
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #76
CoffeeCat Dec 2015 #78
CorporatistNation Dec 2015 #65
AgingAmerican Dec 2015 #67
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #79

Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 03:45 PM

1. Within the poll's margin of error, even

 

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Response to Scootaloo (Reply #1)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 04:00 PM

5. I would suspect that O'Malley supporters would switch to Bernie. n/t

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Response to Fantastic Anarchist (Reply #5)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 04:03 PM

6. The two are more similar to each other in position, than either is to Clinton

 

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 03:45 PM

2. I see MOE is above 8 points. Sanders could be at 53%, Mom at 12% for all we know

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Response to emulatorloo (Reply #2)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 04:04 PM

7. 5.3% in the linked poll

 

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Response to Scootaloo (Reply #7)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 04:15 PM

11. Thanks for the correction! I need more coffee!

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 03:48 PM

3. let's be cautious

 

polling on this ended the day before the data breach story broke.

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Response to demwing (Reply #3)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 03:49 PM

4. True. Bernie could be way ahead now

 

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Response to ThePhilosopher04 (Reply #4)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 04:32 PM

20. You know the truth, I know the truth

 

but most voters know what they hear on the news

Here's to "way ahead"

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Response to ThePhilosopher04 (Reply #4)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 05:18 PM

35. LOL....

You're right!

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Response to demwing (Reply #3)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 09:33 PM

55. Cautious? With the caucus less than 2 months away? Hell no! Let's be bold and active in closing that

ever-shrinking gap.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #55)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 10:27 PM

60. So be bold, but be wise

 

We haven't seen any polls that have included Friday and/or Saturday sampling. If you want to boldly close a gap, you had better have a bold understanding of what size gap you're closing.

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Response to demwing (Reply #60)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 10:30 PM

61. We should be sprinting at full speed regardless of what Friday and Saturday polling shows. Iowa and

New Hampshire are both within reach and -- if we win at least one of those states -- it is a new race.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #61)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 10:50 PM

62. Does "sprinting at full speed" include

 

boasting about positive polling, when that polling was completed just before a Rovian media "scandal," and thus providing us an incomplete (or even inaccurate) perspective?

Is that how we sprint at full speed?

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Response to demwing (Reply #62)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 11:39 PM

68. Boasting? We're behind in this poll. This is not a poll to boast about, but it is a poll the keep

the hope up for those who are devoting their Christmas season to working an underdog Iowa campaign for deserving candidate.

I'm not sure a poll result is EVER grounds for boasting unless your goal is winning a poll (the goal must be winning an election -- the polling is just a good report card suggesting that the election is within grasp, but the poll is never the goal).

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #68)

Mon Dec 21, 2015, 07:26 AM

73. Come one - quit looking so hard for a debate

 

we are on the same side here

Praise that poll all you want - I'll hold off for now.

If the next set of polls follow this trend, I'll happily say you were right. If not, than maybe you could revisit this sub-thread and try to understand my point,



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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 04:05 PM

8. Wonder why O'Malley isn't dropping out

I mean, it's pretty obvious he isn't getting any traction. I don't mean to imply he's a bad candidate, just that he's not really a contender in this race.

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Response to Matariki (Reply #8)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 04:09 PM

9. I think he wants to be VP...then President. I'd be fine with that. He's a good man and politician.

 

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Response to libdem4life (Reply #9)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 04:11 PM

10. That makes sense.

But at the same time I don't see a pair up of any of the three of them. They all fall into too much the same demographic and are from relatively the same part of the US.

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Response to libdem4life (Reply #9)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 04:17 PM

12. He is a good man. His 'socialist' smears of Bernie last night didn't sit well with me

I understand his desperation to attract voters but did not care for those tactics.

But Bernie is probably much more magnanimous than I am, lol

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Response to emulatorloo (Reply #12)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 04:22 PM

14. Didn't know about that...my "Live Feed" died a slow death. But I guess he had to say

 

something to distinguish himself. They do have a lot of the same convictions and policies.

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Response to emulatorloo (Reply #12)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 04:25 PM

16. His ageist dig really didn't sit well with me

That was just stupid.

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Response to Matariki (Reply #16)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 04:31 PM

19. Yeah, was glad to hear the audience booing that one.

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Response to emulatorloo (Reply #19)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 04:59 PM

27. and boo they did!

Probably the loudest reaction from the crowd all night.

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Response to Matariki (Reply #16)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 05:05 PM

30. Yes, it was stupid, evidenced by the audience's boos. nt

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Response to emulatorloo (Reply #12)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 10:53 PM

63. I don't like his attacks on Bernie either

But overall, he seems to be mostly good, which I can't say about Hillary.

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Response to libdem4life (Reply #9)

Mon Dec 21, 2015, 04:08 AM

71. I'd like that a lot.

 

Sanders is our best chance of stopping Third Way, but I'd be happily cheering for O'Malley if he was our best chance.

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Response to Matariki (Reply #8)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 04:19 PM

13. because there's a not-miniscule chance that one of the other two will have a major blowout

 

Some big scandal, a health issue, who-knows-what. and O'Malley has placed himself in a position where he could fill either candidate's spot pretty ably.

it's not LIKELY to happen, but it's not impossible, either.

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Response to Scootaloo (Reply #13)

Mon Dec 21, 2015, 11:14 AM

77. This, too. At the end of the day, there is still a reason, and I'm pretty sure the DNC doesn't

 

want the blood-letting that a Debate For Two would provide. Then they couldn't possibly feature Ms. Inevitable not framed by two gentlemen, they needed a right flank.

I could have sworn, although my life feed came and went, but it looked like she had glitter in her hair to match the glittery gold suit. No doubt about it, she's got the physical image thing down...she looked attractive. But she's still my second choice.

Edit: Also, MOM is not hard on the eyes.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 04:23 PM

15. It's amazing how people are impressed by truth and authenticity. That always comes

across with Bernie, no matter how much of the usual negativity is used against him. It simply isn't working against a candidate who simply exudes authenticity.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 04:28 PM

17. Just wait.

It'll get even better the closer it gets to Monday, February 1!

Bernie's going to win and win BIG. Landslide.

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

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Response to in_cog_ni_to (Reply #17)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 05:00 PM

28. From your keyboard to.... well, God ain't there but you get my drift!

Go Bernie go!

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Response to Juicy_Bellows (Reply #28)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 05:02 PM

29. Yes, yes I do!



PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

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Response to Juicy_Bellows (Reply #28)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 05:20 PM

36. For Bernie's victory, I am willing to posit a God who listens to fervent prayer for good

 

atheist that I am (actually, completely pagan/animist, but that's another story).

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 04:31 PM

18. Iowa people - what do you expect to happen to

Omalley voters in places where they miss the 15 percent threshold?

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Response to karynnj (Reply #18)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 05:31 PM

40. I'm In Iowa, and that's a good question...

It's a really good question, because it is likely that O'Malley will not meet the viability threshold in most precincts.

There are 1,700 precincts in Iowa. That collective 5 percent of O'Malley supporters has to go somewhere.

My guess is that O'Malley supporters--especially in Iowa--will go toward Sanders.

Iowa Democrats tend to be very progressive. Especially the caucus-goers, who tend to be pretty politically active and aware.

By initially supporting O'Malley--they have, in effect, rejected Clinton in a big way. Iowans know Hillary extremely well because of the 2008 primary. If an Iowa Democrat supports a candidate other than Hillary, they most likely do not like Hillary. They're likely to prefer a candidate that is to the left of Hillary.

Of course, this will not be true in every case. But it is my guess that most of O'Malley's supporters will go to Bernie.

Also, because O'Malley is polling at 5 percent, it's going to be tough to be viable anywhere. O'Malley may have pockets of supporters in certain precincts that may earn him delegates in select areas. But it's going to be challenging to reach the 15 percent viability threshold in a precinct--when you're polling around 5 percent statewide. Very tough.

The vast majority of O'Malley supporters will be joining another candidate camp or sitting out the caucus.

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Response to CoffeeCat (Reply #40)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 05:35 PM

42. In your 1st sentence, I think you typed Sanders when you meant O'Malley

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #42)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 05:39 PM

45. Corrected, thank you. Three hours of sleep last night! (nt)

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 04:34 PM

21. 10 weeks out and gaining steadily......LOOKING GOOD!

 

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 04:35 PM

22. That explains why Hillary surrogates are now claiming Bernie has an integrity problem.

To go along with his black problem, his women problem and his gun problem.

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Response to pa28 (Reply #22)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 05:09 PM

31. That's what I think as well. It explains DWS's freakout Friday.

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Response to reformist2 (Reply #31)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 05:17 PM

34. It has been suggested that DWS’s overplaying of her hand meant internal polling...

...showing Bernie uncomfortably close. I shrugged it off at the time, but there may be something to it.

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Response to pa28 (Reply #22)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 05:32 PM

41. Oh yeah...

...they'll be throwing as much crap as they possibly can.

It's going to be pretty rough.

Not for Sanders and his supporters though. We'll be fine.

The Hillary camp will be fit to be tied.

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Response to pa28 (Reply #22)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 06:08 PM

49. I am so sick of their insinuations and wink wink politics

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Response to pa28 (Reply #22)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 10:55 PM

64. There's absolutely zero evidence for the first 3

All they got is that he voted against the Brady bill 24 years ago.

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Response to pa28 (Reply #22)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 11:21 PM

66. They try and project Hillary's weaknesses onto him

 

Every time

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Response to AgingAmerican (Reply #66)

Mon Dec 21, 2015, 12:22 AM

69. Bernie's presence in this race has really broadened my understanding of the Democratic party.

For some reason I always thought projection, rationalization, blind partisanship and intellectual dishonesty was something the other side did.

Hahaha! Guess I missed that one!

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Response to pa28 (Reply #22)

Mon Dec 21, 2015, 03:32 AM

70. I think you mean Clinton's well documented trustworthiness/dishonesty problem. People trust Sanders

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 04:36 PM

23. Pre-debate and pre-DataGate

From the link: "CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker, Iowa: Dec. 14-17, 2015 "

Sorry.

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Response to MineralMan (Reply #23)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 04:56 PM

24. This is very true. He may even be leading by now! n/t

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Response to JonLeibowitz (Reply #24)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 04:57 PM

25. Just a fact, not an analysis.

Those were the dates of the poll. Facts. What the next poll will show will be in the next poll. I'll comment on that one when it's available.

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Response to MineralMan (Reply #25)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 05:15 PM

32. I don't think he expected an analysis. nt

 

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Response to MineralMan (Reply #23)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 05:24 PM

39. TIME post-debate poll: who won? Bernie Sanders at 84%

 

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 04:58 PM

26. Woo hoo, Go Bernie!!!!!

Nice result at this stage of the game.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 05:16 PM

33. K & R !

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Response to TIME TO PANIC (Reply #33)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 06:03 PM

47. Ha! Like yer Black Flag graphic.

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Response to dinkytron (Reply #47)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 06:10 PM

50. Bernie has the coolest endorsements.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 05:22 PM

37. You are a bearer of good news every time!

 

Are you really a lawyer?

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Response to Proserpina (Reply #37)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 10:14 PM

57. Yes.

I am an attorney.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 05:23 PM

38. K & R

 

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 05:36 PM

43. The CBS/YouGov poll has an Internet-based methodology

that has been rather friendly to Sanders. It was the only poll that showed any meaningful Sanders lead in Iowa (10 points in September). Their last poll in November had Clinton up 6, so this is mostly static and doesn't show movement.

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Response to BlueCheese (Reply #43)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 05:38 PM

44. I'm sure you must be right. Go back to bed -- no need to campaign for Hillary today.

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Response to BlueCheese (Reply #43)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 06:06 PM

48. This CBS Poll is close to recent Ann Selzer Iowa Poll

This CBS/YouGov poll has Sanders behind by 5. This is in line with Ann Selzer's Iowa poll, which is considered the most important and accurate polling done in the state of Iowa. That poll, released less than a week ago, has Bernie behind by 9.

Selzer has been wildly accurate when it comes to Iowa races, and it's due to her scientific methods and sterling methodologies.

All of Iowa (both Democrats and Republicans) were on pins and needles waiting for her numbers, because she's just that good. Nate Sliver published his analysis of 300 polling firms and compared their analysis with election-day results. Silver gave 3 A-pluses and one of them was to Seltzer.

Another point to consider. Iowans are starting to ramp up their caucus season. People are making up their minds and will continue to do so, especially in January. It appears that the polls are tightening as final candidate selections are made.

Also, here are the stats on attendance at Clinton v. Bernie rallies in Iowa in the last two weeks.

Clinton
200 attendees--"Fighting for Us" Town Hall in Ft. Dodge, Iowa (12/4) Source: ABC News
350 attendees--"Fighting For Us" Town Hall in Waterloo, Iowa (12/9) Source: Waterloo Courier
250 attendees_"Fighting For Us" Town Hall in Urbandale Iowa (12/9) Source: Radio Iowa

Sanders
2000 attendees--Sanders Town Meeting in Dubuque, Iowa (12/12) Overflow crowd Source: Radio Iowa
1500 attendees--Sanders Town Meeting in Waterloo, Iowa (12/12) Standing-room only. Source: Waterloo Courier
1125 attendees--Sanders Town Hall in Mt. Vernon, Iowa (12/13)
--

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Response to CoffeeCat (Reply #48)

Mon Dec 21, 2015, 04:10 AM

72. Maybe CBS is now adjusting its poll numbers: avoiding egg on their faces when the primary results

 

come rolling in. You know: like Rassmussen usually operates.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 05:54 PM

46. Also interesting...

4. Even though you are supporting Hillary Clinton, how would you describe your view of what Bernie Sanders is saying in the campaign?
(Asked of Clinton supporters)
I generally like what Bernie Sanders is saying, but I like Hillary Clinton better: 78%
I generally do not like what Bernie Sanders is saying: 12%
I haven’t heard enough from Bernie Sanders yet: 10%

15. Even though you are supporting Bernie Sanders, how would you describe your view of what Hillary Clinton is saying in the campaign?
(Asked of Sanders supporters)
I generally like what Hillary Clinton is saying, but I like Bernie Sanders: 74%
I generally do not like what Hillary Clinton is saying: 21%
I haven’t heard enough from Hillary Clinton yet: 4%


These are also positive for Sanders.

As another part of the poll discusses, even when people give their preference, they are not necessarily 100% committed to their choice yet. The fact that 10% of those Clinton supporters haven't heard enough from Sanders, while only 4% of the Sanders supporters haven't heard enough from Hillary favors more growth for Sanders, as does the fact that only 12% of the Clinton supporters do not like what Sanders says, while 21% of the Sanders supporters don't like what Clinton says.

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Response to thesquanderer (Reply #46)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 09:07 PM

54. If you match the "have you made your mind up" polling a month before the caucus against the "when

did you make up your mind" exit polling on election day, the discrepancy proves that about half the people who say they have already made up their minds will nevertheless change their minds before the election.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #54)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 09:37 PM

56. Right. The "who will you vote for" will continue to be somewhat fluid.

As opposed to things like favorable/unfavorable, honesty, etc. where, barring a major revelation, once someone decides they like (or dislike) you, they are unlikely to change their mind about that.

In this case, most Dems have favorable impressions of both candidates, so who they vote for could be in play up to the day of the primary/caucus.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 06:22 PM

51. Bernie has overcome Hillary's DNC, moneyed interests and

limited coverage in the mass media to make it a race. It's a great testament to the strength of his message.

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Response to Broward (Reply #51)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 06:37 PM

52. It's a near blackout in Iowa...

The media in Iowa has been in the tank for Clinton. The Des Moines Register's headline in an article about the first debate in Iowa was, "As Iowa debate approaches, Clinton seems inevitable again."

A gaggle of reporters follows her around in Iowa, reporting on her events. Bernie barely gets mentions in the Des Moines Register. They never mentioned his rally in Dubuque that had 2,000 supporters; his Waterloo rally where 1500 showed up for Bernie; or his Mt Vernon rally that had 1100+ in attendance. Only a few sparse media outlets and smaller local papers covered those rallies.

Despite the sparse debates, the low-viewership debate times, the media favoritism of Clinton and black out of Bernie--this is 2008 all over again.

There's so much enthusiasm for Bernie in Iowa.

I stopped by our local Bernie office this weekend. Busy as hell. People dropping off donations and food. The field organizer I spoke with said that their phone was ringing off the hook--people asking what they could do for the campaign. When DWS took away the voter lists from Bernie, it galvanized everyone around here.

Now, it's time to get to work in Iowa. The last push (the entire month of January) is when the media descends on our state, the rallies are in full swing (multiple campaign events every week) and Iowans make their final decisions.

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Response to CoffeeCat (Reply #52)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 06:42 PM

53. Wow, it's even worse than I thought which makes it all the more impressive.

Thanks for all the info.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 10:22 PM

58. Registered Voters, I need to see Likely Democratic Caucus Participants!

 

I still think some of Hillary's support is name recognition and these people won't show up to caucus.

Bernie's supporters are far more enthusiastic and I think are far more likely to actually go through the caucus process.


It would also be interesting to see who Martin's supporters have as a second choice. That ~4% may come into play very quickly and if it splits 3-1 either way that net 2% could be important in a close race.


Time will tell.



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Response to Motown_Johnny (Reply #58)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 10:26 PM

59. They interviewed 1252 registered voters to identify 459 likely caucus-goers; this is a likely caucus

goer poll.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #59)

Mon Dec 21, 2015, 10:03 AM

74. I don't see that number (but maybe it is just me)

 

The poll describes itself as using 1252 registered voters as a sample, then question #3 has 67% of them responding as definitely/probably will vote in a caucus.

That leaves 839 as definitely/probably will vote.

Question #4 asks which caucus they will vote in and 33% say Democratic. If we assume that the 33% is accurate among the 839 from question #3 (which is only an assumption) then that leaves us 277 who definitely/probably will vote in the Democratic caucus.


Is that 459 number all caucus goers, including (R)s?

Are we sure that 277 (if my number is accurate) is a reasonable sized sampling to get a clear picture of the race as it now stands?





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Response to Motown_Johnny (Reply #74)

Mon Dec 21, 2015, 10:34 AM

75. Here's more information and source links:

CBS narrowed the polling sample to 1,252 voters registered in Iowa, and from that group polled 602 likely to go caucus with the Democrats and 534 likely to go caucus with the Republicans.

Here is a more detailed discussion of the methodology.

CBS used YouGov for the poll, and YouGov did pretty well in 2014:

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Response to Motown_Johnny (Reply #74)

Mon Dec 21, 2015, 10:40 AM

76. The 459 was from the New Hampshire poll. My bad.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #59)

Mon Dec 21, 2015, 11:14 AM

78. And polls with this methodology

are the most accurate.

This is Ann Selzer's method that she used in her Iowa poll (which had Clinton up by 9 more than a week ago).

Any poll that doesn't do this--is not as accurate. Some of the polling out there is so bad, it's laughable.

Going forward, I recommend that people ignore polls that fail to use this methodology. If the poll fails to start with registered voters to identify "likely caucus goers/voters" then the pollster is sloppy, lazy or incompetent.

I would expect some junk polls to be released. And of course they'll be touted as evidence that Hillary is ahead by 40 points. It's mindless cheerleading for junk.

Just ignore it.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 11:12 PM

65. 8% Margin of Error On This... Bernie COuld Be Ahead!

Plenty of Time for the Truth to Come out... let's Work it People!!

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Dec 20, 2015, 11:24 PM

67. Where are all the 'polls!' people?

 

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Response to AgingAmerican (Reply #67)

Mon Dec 21, 2015, 06:57 PM

79. They want to fixate on national polling (despite the fact that there is no "national primary day")

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