New CBS News Iowa poll -- Sanders pulls within 5% of Clinton: Clinton 50%, Sanders 45%, O'Malley 4%

[Attorney in Texas]

Link to CBS News December 2015 Battleground Tracker, Iowa.

[Scootaloo]

1. Within the poll's margin of error, even

[Fantastic Anarchist]

5. I would suspect that O'Malley supporters would switch to Bernie. n/t

[Scootaloo]

6. The two are more similar to each other in position, than either is to Clinton

[emulatorloo]

2. I see MOE is above 8 points. Sanders could be at 53%, Mom at 12% for all we know

[Scootaloo]

7. 5.3% in the linked poll

[emulatorloo]

11. Thanks for the correction! I need more coffee!

[demwing]

3. let's be cautious

polling on this ended the day before the data breach story broke.

[ThePhilosopher04]

4. True. Bernie could be way ahead now

[demwing]

20. You know the truth, I know the truth

but most voters know what they hear on the news

Here's to "way ahead"

[Punkingal]

35. LOL....

You're right!

[Attorney in Texas]

55. Cautious? With the caucus less than 2 months away? Hell no! Let's be bold and active in closing that

ever-shrinking gap.

[demwing]

60. So be bold, but be wise

We haven't seen any polls that have included Friday and/or Saturday sampling. If you want to boldly close a gap, you had better have a bold understanding of what size gap you're closing.

[Attorney in Texas]

61. We should be sprinting at full speed regardless of what Friday and Saturday polling shows. Iowa and

New Hampshire are both within reach and -- if we win at least one of those states -- it is a new race.

[demwing]

62. Does "sprinting at full speed" include

boasting about positive polling, when that polling was completed just before a Rovian media "scandal," and thus providing us an incomplete (or even inaccurate) perspective?

Is that how we sprint at full speed?

[Attorney in Texas]

68. Boasting? We're behind in this poll. This is not a poll to boast about, but it is a poll the keep

the hope up for those who are devoting their Christmas season to working an underdog Iowa campaign for deserving candidate.

I'm not sure a poll result is EVER grounds for boasting unless your goal is winning a poll (the goal must be winning an election -- the polling is just a good report card suggesting that the election is within grasp, but the poll is never the goal).

[demwing]

73. Come one - quit looking so hard for a debate

we are on the same side here

Praise that poll all you want - I'll hold off for now.

If the next set of polls follow this trend, I'll happily say you were right. If not, than maybe you could revisit this sub-thread and try to understand my point,

[Matariki]

8. Wonder why O'Malley isn't dropping out

I mean, it's pretty obvious he isn't getting any traction. I don't mean to imply he's a bad candidate, just that he's not really a contender in this race.

[libdem4life]

9. I think he wants to be VP...then President. I'd be fine with that. He's a good man and politician.

[Matariki]

10. That makes sense.

But at the same time I don't see a pair up of any of the three of them. They all fall into too much the same demographic and are from relatively the same part of the US.

[emulatorloo]

12. He is a good man. His 'socialist' smears of Bernie last night didn't sit well with me

I understand his desperation to attract voters but did not care for those tactics.

But Bernie is probably much more magnanimous than I am, lol

[libdem4life]

14. Didn't know about that...my "Live Feed" died a slow death. But I guess he had to say

something to distinguish himself. They do have a lot of the same convictions and policies.

[Matariki]

16. His ageist dig really didn't sit well with me

That was just stupid.

[emulatorloo]

19. Yeah, was glad to hear the audience booing that one.

[Juicy_Bellows]

27. and boo they did!

Probably the loudest reaction from the crowd all night.

[SunSeeker]

30. Yes, it was stupid, evidenced by the audience's boos. nt

[jfern]

63. I don't like his attacks on Bernie either

But overall, he seems to be mostly good, which I can't say about Hillary.

[Betty Karlson]

71. I'd like that a lot.

Sanders is our best chance of stopping Third Way, but I'd be happily cheering for O'Malley if he was our best chance.

[Scootaloo]

13. because there's a not-miniscule chance that one of the other two will have a major blowout

Some big scandal, a health issue, who-knows-what. and O'Malley has placed himself in a position where he could fill either candidate's spot pretty ably.

it's not LIKELY to happen, but it's not impossible, either.

[libdem4life]

77. This, too. At the end of the day, there is still a reason, and I'm pretty sure the DNC doesn't

want the blood-letting that a Debate For Two would provide. Then they couldn't possibly feature Ms. Inevitable not framed by two gentlemen, they needed a right flank.

I could have sworn, although my life feed came and went, but it looked like she had glitter in her hair to match the glittery gold suit. No doubt about it, she's got the physical image thing down...she looked attractive. But she's still my second choice.

Edit: Also, MOM is not hard on the eyes.

[sabrina 1]

15. It's amazing how people are impressed by truth and authenticity. That always comes

across with Bernie, no matter how much of the usual negativity is used against him. It simply isn't working against a candidate who simply exudes authenticity.

[in_cog_ni_to]

17. Just wait.

It'll get even better the closer it gets to Monday, February 1!

Bernie's going to win and win BIG. Landslide.

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

[Juicy_Bellows]

28. From your keyboard to.... well, God ain't there but you get my drift!

Go Bernie go!

[in_cog_ni_to]

29. Yes, yes I do!

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

[Proserpina]

36. For Bernie's victory, I am willing to posit a God who listens to fervent prayer for good

atheist that I am (actually, completely pagan/animist, but that's another story).

[karynnj]

18. Iowa people - what do you expect to happen to

Omalley voters in places where they miss the 15 percent threshold?

[CoffeeCat]

40. I'm In Iowa, and that's a good question...

It's a really good question, because it is likely that O'Malley will not meet the viability threshold in most precincts.

There are 1,700 precincts in Iowa. That collective 5 percent of O'Malley supporters has to go somewhere.

My guess is that O'Malley supporters--especially in Iowa--will go toward Sanders.

Iowa Democrats tend to be very progressive. Especially the caucus-goers, who tend to be pretty politically active and aware.

By initially supporting O'Malley--they have, in effect, rejected Clinton in a big way. Iowans know Hillary extremely well because of the 2008 primary. If an Iowa Democrat supports a candidate other than Hillary, they most likely do not like Hillary. They're likely to prefer a candidate that is to the left of Hillary.

Of course, this will not be true in every case. But it is my guess that most of O'Malley's supporters will go to Bernie.

Also, because O'Malley is polling at 5 percent, it's going to be tough to be viable anywhere. O'Malley may have pockets of supporters in certain precincts that may earn him delegates in select areas. But it's going to be challenging to reach the 15 percent viability threshold in a precinct--when you're polling around 5 percent statewide. Very tough.

The vast majority of O'Malley supporters will be joining another candidate camp or sitting out the caucus.

[Attorney in Texas]

42. In your 1st sentence, I think you typed Sanders when you meant O'Malley

[CoffeeCat]

45. Corrected, thank you. Three hours of sleep last night! (nt)

[Indepatriot]

21. 10 weeks out and gaining steadily......LOOKING GOOD!

[pa28]

22. That explains why Hillary surrogates are now claiming Bernie has an integrity problem.

To go along with his black problem, his women problem and his gun problem.

[reformist2]

31. That's what I think as well. It explains DWS's freakout Friday.

[dorkzilla]

34. It has been suggested that DWS’s overplaying of her hand meant internal polling...

...showing Bernie uncomfortably close. I shrugged it off at the time, but there may be something to it.

[CoffeeCat]

41. Oh yeah...

...they'll be throwing as much crap as they possibly can.

It's going to be pretty rough.

Not for Sanders and his supporters though. We'll be fine.

The Hillary camp will be fit to be tied.

[thereismore]

49. I am so sick of their insinuations and wink wink politics

[jfern]

64. There's absolutely zero evidence for the first 3

All they got is that he voted against the Brady bill 24 years ago.

[AgingAmerican]

66. They try and project Hillary's weaknesses onto him

Every time

[pa28]

69. Bernie's presence in this race has really broadened my understanding of the Democratic party.

For some reason I always thought projection, rationalization, blind partisanship and intellectual dishonesty was something the other side did.

Hahaha! Guess I missed that one!

[Attorney in Texas]

70. I think you mean Clinton's well documented trustworthiness/dishonesty problem. People trust Sanders

[MineralMan]

23. Pre-debate and pre-DataGate

From the link: "CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker, Iowa: Dec. 14-17, 2015 "

Sorry.

[JonLeibowitz]

24. This is very true. He may even be leading by now! n/t

[MineralMan]

25. Just a fact, not an analysis.

Those were the dates of the poll. Facts. What the next poll will show will be in the next poll. I'll comment on that one when it's available.

[artislife]

32. I don't think he expected an analysis. nt

[99th_Monkey]

39. TIME post-debate poll: who won? Bernie Sanders at 84%

http://time.com/4154954/democratic-debate-third-poll/?xid=fbshare

Sorry, but not sorry.

[ljm2002]

26. Woo hoo, Go Bernie!!!!!

Nice result at this stage of the game.

[TIME TO PANIC]

33. K & R !

[dinkytron]

47. Ha! Like yer Black Flag graphic.

[TIME TO PANIC]

50. Bernie has the coolest endorsements.

[Proserpina]

37. You are a bearer of good news every time!

Are you really a lawyer?

[Attorney in Texas]

57. Yes.

I am an attorney.

[AzDar]

38. K & R

[BlueCheese]

43. The CBS/YouGov poll has an Internet-based methodology

that has been rather friendly to Sanders. It was the only poll that showed any meaningful Sanders lead in Iowa (10 points in September). Their last poll in November had Clinton up 6, so this is mostly static and doesn't show movement.

[Attorney in Texas]

44. I'm sure you must be right. Go back to bed -- no need to campaign for Hillary today.

[CoffeeCat]

48. This CBS Poll is close to recent Ann Selzer Iowa Poll

This CBS/YouGov poll has Sanders behind by 5. This is in line with Ann Selzer's Iowa poll, which is considered the most important and accurate polling done in the state of Iowa. That poll, released less than a week ago, has Bernie behind by 9.

Selzer has been wildly accurate when it comes to Iowa races, and it's due to her scientific methods and sterling methodologies.

All of Iowa (both Democrats and Republicans) were on pins and needles waiting for her numbers, because she's just that good. Nate Sliver published his analysis of 300 polling firms and compared their analysis with election-day results. Silver gave 3 A-pluses and one of them was to Seltzer.

Another point to consider. Iowans are starting to ramp up their caucus season. People are making up their minds and will continue to do so, especially in January. It appears that the polls are tightening as final candidate selections are made.

Also, here are the stats on attendance at Clinton v. Bernie rallies in Iowa in the last two weeks.

Clinton
200 attendees--"Fighting for Us" Town Hall in Ft. Dodge, Iowa (12/4) Source: ABC News
350 attendees--"Fighting For Us" Town Hall in Waterloo, Iowa (12/9) Source: Waterloo Courier
250 attendees_"Fighting For Us" Town Hall in Urbandale Iowa (12/9) Source: Radio Iowa

Sanders
2000 attendees--Sanders Town Meeting in Dubuque, Iowa (12/12) Overflow crowd Source: Radio Iowa
1500 attendees--Sanders Town Meeting in Waterloo, Iowa (12/12) Standing-room only. Source: Waterloo Courier
1125 attendees--Sanders Town Hall in Mt. Vernon, Iowa (12/13)
--

[Betty Karlson]

72. Maybe CBS is now adjusting its poll numbers: avoiding egg on their faces when the primary results

come rolling in. You know: like Rassmussen usually operates.

[thesquanderer]

46. Also interesting...

4. Even though you are supporting Hillary Clinton, how would you describe your view of what Bernie Sanders is saying in the campaign?
(Asked of Clinton supporters)
I generally like what Bernie Sanders is saying, but I like Hillary Clinton better: 78%
I generally do not like what Bernie Sanders is saying: 12%
I haven’t heard enough from Bernie Sanders yet: 10%

15. Even though you are supporting Bernie Sanders, how would you describe your view of what Hillary Clinton is saying in the campaign?
(Asked of Sanders supporters)
I generally like what Hillary Clinton is saying, but I like Bernie Sanders: 74%
I generally do not like what Hillary Clinton is saying: 21%
I haven’t heard enough from Hillary Clinton yet: 4%

These are also positive for Sanders.

As another part of the poll discusses, even when people give their preference, they are not necessarily 100% committed to their choice yet. The fact that 10% of those Clinton supporters haven't heard enough from Sanders, while only 4% of the Sanders supporters haven't heard enough from Hillary favors more growth for Sanders, as does the fact that only 12% of the Clinton supporters do not like what Sanders says, while 21% of the Sanders supporters don't like what Clinton says.

[Attorney in Texas]

54. If you match the "have you made your mind up" polling a month before the caucus against the "when

did you make up your mind" exit polling on election day, the discrepancy proves that about half the people who say they have already made up their minds will nevertheless change their minds before the election.

[thesquanderer]

56. Right. The "who will you vote for" will continue to be somewhat fluid.

As opposed to things like favorable/unfavorable, honesty, etc. where, barring a major revelation, once someone decides they like (or dislike) you, they are unlikely to change their mind about that.

In this case, most Dems have favorable impressions of both candidates, so who they vote for could be in play up to the day of the primary/caucus.

[Broward]

51. Bernie has overcome Hillary's DNC, moneyed interests and

limited coverage in the mass media to make it a race. It's a great testament to the strength of his message.

[CoffeeCat]

52. It's a near blackout in Iowa...

The media in Iowa has been in the tank for Clinton. The Des Moines Register's headline in an article about the first debate in Iowa was, "As Iowa debate approaches, Clinton seems inevitable again."

A gaggle of reporters follows her around in Iowa, reporting on her events. Bernie barely gets mentions in the Des Moines Register. They never mentioned his rally in Dubuque that had 2,000 supporters; his Waterloo rally where 1500 showed up for Bernie; or his Mt Vernon rally that had 1100+ in attendance. Only a few sparse media outlets and smaller local papers covered those rallies.

Despite the sparse debates, the low-viewership debate times, the media favoritism of Clinton and black out of Bernie--this is 2008 all over again.

There's so much enthusiasm for Bernie in Iowa.

I stopped by our local Bernie office this weekend. Busy as hell. People dropping off donations and food. The field organizer I spoke with said that their phone was ringing off the hook--people asking what they could do for the campaign. When DWS took away the voter lists from Bernie, it galvanized everyone around here.

Now, it's time to get to work in Iowa. The last push (the entire month of January) is when the media descends on our state, the rallies are in full swing (multiple campaign events every week) and Iowans make their final decisions.

[Broward]

53. Wow, it's even worse than I thought which makes it all the more impressive.

Thanks for all the info.

[Motown_Johnny]

58. Registered Voters, I need to see Likely Democratic Caucus Participants!

I still think some of Hillary's support is name recognition and these people won't show up to caucus.

Bernie's supporters are far more enthusiastic and I think are far more likely to actually go through the caucus process.


It would also be interesting to see who Martin's supporters have as a second choice. That ~4% may come into play very quickly and if it splits 3-1 either way that net 2% could be important in a close race.


Time will tell.

[Attorney in Texas]

59. They interviewed 1252 registered voters to identify 459 likely caucus-goers; this is a likely caucus

goer poll.

[Motown_Johnny]

74. I don't see that number (but maybe it is just me)

The poll describes itself as using 1252 registered voters as a sample, then question #3 has 67% of them responding as definitely/probably will vote in a caucus.

That leaves 839 as definitely/probably will vote.

Question #4 asks which caucus they will vote in and 33% say Democratic. If we assume that the 33% is accurate among the 839 from question #3 (which is only an assumption) then that leaves us 277 who definitely/probably will vote in the Democratic caucus.


Is that 459 number all caucus goers, including (R)s?

Are we sure that 277 (if my number is accurate) is a reasonable sized sampling to get a clear picture of the race as it now stands?

[Attorney in Texas]

75. Here's more information and source links:

CBS narrowed the polling sample to 1,252 voters registered in Iowa, and from that group polled 602 likely to go caucus with the Democrats and 534 likely to go caucus with the Republicans.

Here is a more detailed discussion of the methodology.

CBS used YouGov for the poll, and YouGov did pretty well in 2014:

[Attorney in Texas]

76. The 459 was from the New Hampshire poll. My bad.

[CoffeeCat]

78. And polls with this methodology

are the most accurate.

This is Ann Selzer's method that she used in her Iowa poll (which had Clinton up by 9 more than a week ago).

Any poll that doesn't do this--is not as accurate. Some of the polling out there is so bad, it's laughable.

Going forward, I recommend that people ignore polls that fail to use this methodology. If the poll fails to start with registered voters to identify "likely caucus goers/voters" then the pollster is sloppy, lazy or incompetent.

I would expect some junk polls to be released. And of course they'll be touted as evidence that Hillary is ahead by 40 points. It's mindless cheerleading for junk.

Just ignore it.

[CorporatistNation]

65. 8% Margin of Error On This... Bernie COuld Be Ahead!

Plenty of Time for the Truth to Come out... let's Work it People!!

[AgingAmerican]

67. Where are all the 'polls!' people?

[Attorney in Texas]

79. They want to fixate on national polling (despite the fact that there is no "national primary day")