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Wed Dec 23, 2015, 03:54 PM

2016 New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary - Clinton 46%, Sanders 43% (ARG)

1) 2016 New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary
Asked of 600 likely voters - democrat
Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
Martin O'Malley (D) 3%
Bernie Sanders (D) 43%
Other 0%
Undecided 7%


http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/arg-23409

49 replies, 3489 views

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Reply 2016 New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary - Clinton 46%, Sanders 43% (ARG) (Original post)
Dem2 Dec 2015 OP
leftofcool Dec 2015 #1
rhett o rick Dec 2015 #14
Cha Dec 2015 #19
rhett o rick Dec 2015 #22
Cha Dec 2015 #23
rhett o rick Dec 2015 #24
Cha Dec 2015 #26
rhett o rick Dec 2015 #30
CorporatistNation Dec 2015 #34
Cha Dec 2015 #42
firebrand80 Dec 2015 #2
Godhumor Dec 2015 #4
Hoyt Dec 2015 #5
Godhumor Dec 2015 #10
leftofcool Dec 2015 #8
firebrand80 Dec 2015 #12
Cha Dec 2015 #20
madokie Dec 2015 #37
Samantha Dec 2015 #45
NCTraveler Dec 2015 #3
libdem4life Dec 2015 #6
NCTraveler Dec 2015 #7
libdem4life Dec 2015 #11
peacebird Dec 2015 #28
NCTraveler Dec 2015 #29
peacebird Dec 2015 #31
msrizzo Dec 2015 #9
Cha Dec 2015 #21
CorporatistNation Dec 2015 #35
Cha Dec 2015 #43
Codeine Dec 2015 #13
Dawson Leery Dec 2015 #15
RoccoR5955 Dec 2015 #17
JonLeibowitz Dec 2015 #33
Dawson Leery Dec 2015 #44
JonLeibowitz Dec 2015 #46
Jarqui Dec 2015 #16
litlbilly Dec 2015 #18
seabeyond Dec 2015 #25
madokie Dec 2015 #38
seabeyond Dec 2015 #39
peacebird Dec 2015 #27
Rosa Luxemburg Dec 2015 #32
CorporatistNation Dec 2015 #36
Rosa Luxemburg Dec 2015 #40
rjsquirrel Dec 2015 #41
Fawke Em Dec 2015 #47
DCBob Dec 2015 #48
Dem2 Dec 2015 #49

Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 03:55 PM

1. Go Team Hillary!

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Response to leftofcool (Reply #1)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 04:46 PM

14. If you want to see something done about the 16 million American children living in poverty

 

don't vote for the Goldman-Sachs supported Oligarchy. The Oligarchy doesn't love you.

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Response to rhett o rick (Reply #14)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 07:59 PM

19. the bernie team sabotaged their own campaign when they downloaded Hillary's data.

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Response to Cha (Reply #19)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 08:06 PM

22. In perspective that's nothing compared to the 16 million children living in poverty and another

 

16 million living in low income homes. Supporting the billionaire's candidate will not change that. They are all about profits and that means more poverty. The only reasons I can imagine for supporting the Oligarchy is 1. the worship of the wealthy or 2. total denial that there are children going to bed hungry.

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Response to rhett o rick (Reply #22)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 08:09 PM

23. Hoisted on their own petard.. what a shame.

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Response to Cha (Reply #23)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 09:20 PM

24. Gloat while you can, but sooner or later the People will over through the Oligarchy

 

that you think is your protector.

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Response to rhett o rick (Reply #24)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 09:30 PM

26. You're gloating.

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Response to Cha (Reply #26)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 09:38 PM

30. We want to help those living in poverty, those seniors depending on Social Security and Medicare,

 

the vets from wars that your candidate supported, college students that have become victims of the 1% loan sharks. We support those that will lose their jobs because of the job killing "Free Trade" agreements that your candidate supports. We support those living where fracking is destroying their water supply that your candidate supports. We support efforts to turn back the Patriot Act and end domestic spying while you seem to accept them. We want to see the wealthy pay their fair share of taxes while your candidate wants to have the 99% pay for everything.

This is a class war and your friend, Goldman-Sachs doesn't care about poverty they want bigger profits. I assume you support that.

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Response to Cha (Reply #19)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 09:59 PM

34. Well, If You Are So Firm In Your Position Then I Imagine That You Are for A Full And COMPLETE

INVESTIGATION STARTING FROM DAY ONE ? Look'in Forward to it!

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Response to CorporatistNation (Reply #34)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 11:55 PM

42. It's not a matter of my "position" .. those are the facts.

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 03:56 PM

2. I recall ARG not being a good pollster

I could be wrong about that

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Response to firebrand80 (Reply #2)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 04:00 PM

4. No, they're terrible

They blew 2008 by a significant margin.

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Response to Godhumor (Reply #4)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 04:02 PM

5. So Clinton COULD BE ahead by 10 percentage points or more.

 

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Response to Hoyt (Reply #5)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 04:09 PM

10. Well sure, but ARG missed in 2008 by vastly overstating HRC support though

And I'm saying this as a Clinton supporter. ARG should be taken with a massive grain of salt.

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Response to firebrand80 (Reply #2)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 04:09 PM

8. I believe you are correct.

Which means she could be ahead by a bunch.

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Response to leftofcool (Reply #8)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 04:21 PM

12. I don't think that's likely

Given the other recent numbers

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Response to firebrand80 (Reply #12)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 08:00 PM

20. We'll see won't we?

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Response to leftofcool (Reply #8)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 10:06 PM

37. It also could mean

she's way, way behind.

My bet is on the latter

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Response to firebrand80 (Reply #2)

Thu Dec 24, 2015, 01:21 AM

45. American Research Group has a C- rating from Nate Silver

That might tell you something.

Sam

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 03:57 PM

3. Clinton is not resting in any way.

 

#hillyes

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Response to NCTraveler (Reply #3)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 04:06 PM

6. We may not totally agree on politics, but that's a cool hashtag.

 

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Response to libdem4life (Reply #6)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 04:08 PM

7. #feelthebern

 

Hard to beat that one. And a little secret, I love Sanders and his political views. Shhhh.

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Response to NCTraveler (Reply #7)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 04:18 PM

11. Lips sealed. LOL

 

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Response to NCTraveler (Reply #7)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 09:32 PM

28. #hillNO #anybodybuthillary

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Response to peacebird (Reply #28)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 09:34 PM

29. Happy Holidays.

 

Wishing you and yours the best.

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Response to NCTraveler (Reply #29)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 09:40 PM

31. Our holiday has already passed, but thanks!

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 04:09 PM

9. I sure hope they are right.

I still think Bernie probably leads, but she may well be cutting into his lead so Go Hillary!

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Response to msrizzo (Reply #9)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 08:01 PM

21. Hillary keeps workin' it like she's 20 points behind!

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Response to Cha (Reply #21)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 10:00 PM

35. Yep, Prevaricating Her Ars Off!

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Response to CorporatistNation (Reply #35)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 11:56 PM

43. So says a BS fan.. that means less than nothing.

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 04:35 PM

13. Clinton will almost certainly lose NH.

 

ARG is not a reliable pollster, so while I would love to believe this I'm going to call it an outlier and move on.

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 04:48 PM

15. NH is one of the few states that Bernie can win.

Not a big deal if she loses it.
She will win the other 45.

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Response to Dawson Leery (Reply #15)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 04:53 PM

17. Hubris! n/t

 

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Response to Dawson Leery (Reply #15)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 09:43 PM

33. How many states does the US have again?

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Response to JonLeibowitz (Reply #33)

Thu Dec 24, 2015, 01:20 AM

44. Bernie should win VT, NH, ME, WI, UT.

5 for Bernie, 45 for Hillary.

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Response to Dawson Leery (Reply #44)

Thu Dec 24, 2015, 01:24 AM

46. Oh I see.

Still, improvement. When he started they said he wouldn't get any traction and then they said only NH and then only NH and Iowa. What next?

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 04:50 PM

16. Another poll that seems to have favorable demographics for Clinton

by age ...

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 05:01 PM

18. If you ask 600 Hillary supporters then those numbers might be correct

 

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 09:28 PM

25. Personally, I do think Clinton will do a sweep. But. NH and a couple little ones like Utah my go

 

Sanders. I concede.

Clinton is kicking major ass.

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Response to seabeyond (Reply #25)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 10:09 PM

38. I agree there is some ass kicking going on

but I don't think HRC is doing the kicking, sorry

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Response to madokie (Reply #38)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 10:13 PM

39. Facts vs Hope. I can live with that. Nt.

 

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 09:31 PM

27. Awesome! Go Bernie! FeelTheBern!

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 09:43 PM

32. +/- 4%

Other polls say that Berns is leading. I really don't think polls are indicative of what is going to happen.

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Response to Rosa Luxemburg (Reply #32)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 10:04 PM

36. By Definition, The Sampling CANNOT Be Random

Because there have been MAJOR Structural Changes in Personal Communication Especially among the younger cohort of voters and potential voters. Not even sought out are those that WILL Vote that previously have not. The polls are for in place to "set" expectations be they relevant to actual results or NOT.

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Response to CorporatistNation (Reply #36)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 10:23 PM

40. yes

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Response to CorporatistNation (Reply #36)

Wed Dec 23, 2015, 10:37 PM

41. What's with the random caps?

 

Every Word Matters?

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu Dec 24, 2015, 01:26 AM

47. Such Bull Shit.

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Response to Dem2 (Original post)

Thu Dec 24, 2015, 03:09 AM

48. NH is a difficult state to poll acurately.

The independent voters which are large percent have the option to vote in either gop or dem primary. So even if they say they are voting dem now they might swtch if the gop contest seems more interesting and consequential. This could hurt Bernie as he is counting on those independents to offset Hillary's lead with actual NH Democrats.

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Response to DCBob (Reply #48)

Thu Dec 24, 2015, 08:26 AM

49. Yes, it is

One can only hope that an average of polls, perhaps weighted based on historical accuracy as 538 does, is somewhat close to reality.

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