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2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNate Silver's Now Cast has Obama at 91.6%
Ohio at nearly 90% chance.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
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Nate Silver's Now Cast has Obama at 91.6% (Original Post)
TroyD
Sep 2012
OP
I don't think the Now Cast works that way (I think that is just a feature of the forecast)
Texas Lawyer
Sep 2012
#15
mucifer
(23,374 posts)1. That's the now polling. The forecast for Nov 6th says 78 % I'll take that!
TroyD
(4,551 posts)3. Yes - I put NowCast in my thread title : )
mucifer
(23,374 posts)6. sorry I'm a dork.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)8. That's okay n/t : )
NRaleighLiberal
(59,940 posts)2. here's the pic - link to my OP below
bluestateguy
(44,173 posts)4. His model factors in an expected convention bounce
If Romeny or Obama underperform those expectations then the model punishes them.
Texas Lawyer
(350 posts)15. I don't think the Now Cast works that way (I think that is just a feature of the forecast)
MFM008
(19,776 posts)5. he lowered it again
he plays with the numbers faster than I can catch them..... Still .2 higher than this morning...
regnaD kciN
(26,035 posts)10. Now, it's back up to 80.8% for the "model" version...
RedSpartan
(1,693 posts)7. Daaaaaaaaaaaaamn!
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)14. LOL
Vadem
(2,596 posts)9. Alrighty then! Does this mean that there is no way the Repubs can
steal the election, again, with those percentages??
mucifer
(23,374 posts)11. we got several weeks ahead of us. Wow only several weeks!
How cool is that?!
Lex
(34,108 posts)12. We still have to Get Out The Vote. Cannot become complacent!
That's my biggest fear. The racists and religious fanatics are especially crazy to get rid of Obama and they WILL be voting.
rocktivity
(44,555 posts)13. I now have reason to doubt Nate Silver
and it's NOT because I've spent the day setting up an affiliate Web site with an online marketer, I swear!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/125194638
rocktivity