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Sat Dec 26, 2015, 11:14 PM

In Iowa Sanders' support rose +34% and Clinton's dropped -8%, and in NH Sanders rose +40% while

Clinton's support dropped -1% in 2015.

Des Moines Register poll of January 2015: Clinton 56%; Sanders 5%
Des Moines Register poll of December 2015: Clinton 48%; Sanders 39%
Franklin Pierce/Boston Herald poll of March 2015: Clinton 47%; Sanders 8%
Franklin Pierce/Boston Herald poll of December 2015: Clinton 46%; Sanders 48%

Not a bad year so far for Sanders. I can't hardly wait to see what's in store for 2016!

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Arrow 38 replies Author Time Post
Reply In Iowa Sanders' support rose +34% and Clinton's dropped -8%, and in NH Sanders rose +40% while (Original post)
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 OP
DanTex Dec 2015 #1
seabeyond Dec 2015 #2
Luminous Animal Dec 2015 #5
seabeyond Dec 2015 #9
roguevalley Dec 2015 #16
Bjornsdotter Dec 2015 #26
morningfog Dec 2015 #4
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #7
Ken Burch Dec 2015 #21
sabrina 1 Dec 2015 #38
CoffeeCat Dec 2015 #3
ejbr Dec 2015 #6
uberblonde Dec 2015 #8
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #19
CoffeeCat Dec 2015 #10
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #11
JI7 Dec 2015 #12
CoffeeCat Dec 2015 #13
restorefreedom Dec 2015 #14
ronbison Dec 2015 #15
Old Codger Dec 2015 #17
bvf Dec 2015 #22
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #18
ronbison Dec 2015 #37
Historic NY Dec 2015 #20
bvf Dec 2015 #23
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #24
DCBob Dec 2015 #25
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #28
DCBob Dec 2015 #29
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #30
DCBob Dec 2015 #31
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #32
DCBob Dec 2015 #33
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #35
Ferd Berfel Dec 2015 #27
TheFarseer Dec 2015 #34
Attorney in Texas Dec 2015 #36

Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sat Dec 26, 2015, 11:32 PM

1. In other words, Clinton is ahead by a comfortable margin.

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Response to DanTex (Reply #1)

Sat Dec 26, 2015, 11:35 PM

2. Lol. I was all... Wtf? Thank you for bottom lining it for me. Too fuggin' funny! Nt.

 

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Response to seabeyond (Reply #2)

Sun Dec 27, 2015, 12:03 AM

5. Really do you know what you are reading? Bernie has climbed from barely on the radar

to within striking distance. Hell, the Boston Herald puts him ahead.

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Response to Luminous Animal (Reply #5)


Response to Luminous Animal (Reply #5)

Sun Dec 27, 2015, 01:50 AM

16. she is leading on land lines.

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Response to roguevalley (Reply #16)

Sun Dec 27, 2015, 01:10 PM

26. Emails

Hillary is very comfortable with her lead.....which is why I am getting emails stating that she could lose the nomination and if I could please donate $1. I get at least 2 a day.

Sounds like she is trying to bump up her individual contributor numbers.

But she leading on land lines and every poll except the ones where she isn't.

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Response to DanTex (Reply #1)

Sat Dec 26, 2015, 11:59 PM

4. Sure, with respect to O'Malley.

 

Clinton would be an utter fool to consider herself "comfortably" ahead of Sanders. And I doubt she would agree with you.

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Response to DanTex (Reply #1)

Sun Dec 27, 2015, 12:26 AM

7. If "ahead by a comfortable margin" means "behind in NH" and "single-digit lead in Iowa," then yes!

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Response to DanTex (Reply #1)

Sun Dec 27, 2015, 02:42 AM

21. nine points is not a comfortable margin.

 

Bernie is surging...HRC is trending down...HRC is losing in New Hampshire.

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Response to DanTex (Reply #1)

Thu Dec 31, 2015, 12:00 AM

38. No, she is not. She has lost one third of the already shrinking Dem base which was never Bernie's

target to begin with. He was after the huge demographic of Independents who are now the biggest voting bloc, but he IS cutting into even her small base, by one third at this point.

His other large demographic, which Hillary has no support from, is the growing non voter demographic. I eg, have been signing up non voters for Bernie, not part of any traditional polls. Huge numbers of people have opted out of the entire system, see the Mid Terms eg, BECAUSE of the Status Quo, but are bringing them back into the system, rather BERNIE is. Hillary will get none of that vote, neither will Trump et al.

Hillary already has admitted, because they KNOW what you apparently don't, that she 'could lose this' in her email after the last debate. They KNOW they are in trouble because the people are ANGRY and no, they have not recovered what they lost due to the corruption of Wall St. And yes, they are angry that Wall St was bailed out while they were left to try to recover what they lost, homes, jobs, savings and most have not.

Sad that our government is so out of touch with the people they are supposed to represent.

But one candidate in this race understands all of this, and it isn't Hillary.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sat Dec 26, 2015, 11:56 PM

3. Wow, Sanders is ahead in Iowa

According to the latest Boston Herald poll.

That's simply amazing!!

These rising poll numbers dovetail nicely with the crowds of 2,000, 1,700 and 1,600 at Sander's last three Iowa rallies.

The last month of campaigning in Iowa will be unprecedented. I'm betting that Sander's crowds will surpass Obama's.

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Response to CoffeeCat (Reply #3)

Sun Dec 27, 2015, 12:17 AM

6. That poll is for New Hampshire only n/t

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Response to ejbr (Reply #6)

Sun Dec 27, 2015, 12:28 AM

8. And this poll has him behind in NH.

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Response to uberblonde (Reply #8)

Sun Dec 27, 2015, 02:11 AM

19. You can't really tell much because ARG is offering this as a one-of-a-kind poll (i.e., they don't

have a prior poll to compare this poll against).

If ARG had done some prior polling, you could see if these numbers were an improvement for Clinton or an improvement for Sanders but it is difficult to infer a trend from one data point.

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Response to ejbr (Reply #6)

Sun Dec 27, 2015, 12:39 AM

10. The latest CBS/YouGov has Sanders behind by only five in Iowa...

...so I'll take that, with the NH poll mentioned here.

Great numbers. He's rising!

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Response to CoffeeCat (Reply #10)

Sun Dec 27, 2015, 01:00 AM

11. Sanders definitely has stronger poll results in Iowa and NH - I just chose those polls because they

were live phone polls where the same pollster did a poll in December and also did a poll early in the year.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Dec 27, 2015, 01:02 AM

12. didn't Omalley's support Rise like 300 percent in some polls ?

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Response to JI7 (Reply #12)

Sun Dec 27, 2015, 01:05 AM

13. O'Malley is a perfect example

O'Malley and Sanders both started out polling at less than one percent in Iowa.

Sanders is now within striking distance of Clinton (by 5, according to CBS/YouGov); whereas O'Malley sits at around 5-6 percent.

Another point that demonstrates the growth and accomplishment of the Sanders campaign.

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Response to CoffeeCat (Reply #13)

Sun Dec 27, 2015, 01:31 AM

14. Dws and her friends should not discount om either

why mom could be the future of the democratic party...long, but a good read


http://www.newsweek.com/why-martin-omalley-could-be-future-democratic-party-393589



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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Dec 27, 2015, 01:41 AM

15. hang on a minute.....

 

I think I see how it works now. If a poll shows Hillary improving, it is flawed or biased and does not reflect reality. However, if a poll shows Bernie improving, then it is proof positive that he is on his way to the nomination and the poll must not be questioned. Now I will vote for whoever gets the nomination, but the double standard on the veracity of polls is rather glaring.

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Response to ronbison (Reply #15)

Sun Dec 27, 2015, 02:05 AM

17. Damn

 

That's probably a record, 8 posts and he made an ignore list...LOL

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Response to Old Codger (Reply #17)

Sun Dec 27, 2015, 03:51 AM

22. Make that two lists. n/t

 

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Response to ronbison (Reply #15)

Sun Dec 27, 2015, 02:05 AM

18. Polls are not ballot boxes. No matter who has momentum in the polls, you are misreading the poll if

you are using the poll to preemptively declare a winner before the votes are cast.

Polls that show Clinton ahead in Iowa probably indicate that she is -- more likely than not -- currently ahead in Iowa at this moment.

Polls that show Sanders ahead in NH probably indicate that he is -- more likely than not -- currently ahead in NH at this moment.

What's so complicated about that?

Do current polls in Iowa and New Hampshire generally provide more salient information than national polls? Yes.

Are live phone polls that sample a large number of landlines and cell phones generally more reliable than robo-call polls? Yes.

Is a pollster who has both a good track record of accuracy and also a long involvement polling this cycle in the particular state generally more reliable that an infrequent pollster or a pollster will little or no track record? Yes.

All of these generalities apply to polling regardless of whether it currently encourages Clinton or currently encourages Sanders.

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Response to ronbison (Reply #15)

Wed Dec 30, 2015, 10:56 PM

37. Wow...two ignore lists

 

Just for making an observation that in no way disparaged either candidate. Bernie would be upset by such kneejerk reactions. Trump would love it though.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Dec 27, 2015, 02:29 AM

20. Ofuscate much............


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Response to Historic NY (Reply #20)

Sun Dec 27, 2015, 04:04 AM

23. Spell much?

 




ETA:

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Response to bvf (Reply #23)

Sun Dec 27, 2015, 12:35 PM

24. I think Historic NY majored in creative spelling

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Dec 27, 2015, 01:00 PM

25. WTF??

This is about the most misleading dishonest post I have ever seen.

Enjoy your delusions!

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Response to DCBob (Reply #25)

Sun Dec 27, 2015, 03:09 PM

28. Where was Clinton's Iowa and New Hampshire polling in January and where is it now? Where was Sanders

Iowa and New Hampshire polling in January and where is it now?

How can you dispute she is falling and he is rising?

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #28)

Sun Dec 27, 2015, 03:12 PM

29. Which means nothing regarding the real trend of this election.

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Response to DCBob (Reply #29)

Sun Dec 27, 2015, 03:33 PM

30. LOL!!!!

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #30)

Sun Dec 27, 2015, 03:41 PM

31. Good you at least see the humor in your folly.

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Response to DCBob (Reply #31)

Sun Dec 27, 2015, 03:45 PM

32. Clinton falling in Iowa and New Hampshire while Sanders rises in both states "doesn't matter" - HA!

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Reply #32)

Sun Dec 27, 2015, 04:34 PM

33. Not funny anymore??

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Response to DCBob (Reply #33)

Mon Dec 28, 2015, 12:07 AM

35. No, you're on a roll! Keep 'em coming

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Dec 27, 2015, 01:13 PM

27. THe More people get to know Bernie the MORE they like him

The opposite is true with Hillary.

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Sun Dec 27, 2015, 05:35 PM

34. Why does one poll show Bernie ahead

And the next poll shows Hillary WAY ahead? I'm done looking at polls. Let's just vote for who we like and not care about who other people with other priorities are voting for.

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Response to TheFarseer (Reply #34)

Mon Dec 28, 2015, 05:55 PM

36. Polls showing Clinton slightly ahead are generally Iowa polls, polls showing Sanders slightly ahead

are generally NH polls, and polls showing Clinton far ahead are generally meaningless national polls. Here is how 538 explained the meaninglessness of the national polls:

Ignore national primary polls – they measure nothing. (But state polls matter.) Unlike in general elections, when all states vote on the same day, the primary calendar is sequential; each state’s results often affect the next state’s. The national polls don’t add to your understanding of the race — just look at surveys of the upcoming states.

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