Poll: Ryan’s race closer than expected

[TroyD]

Has this been posted yet? Couldn't see it when I searched, so I thought I'd post it:

An internal poll provided to Salon shows the VP's House challenger trailing by 8 points

WEDNESDAY, SEP 12, 2012

Rob Zerban, the Democrat running against Rep. Paul Ryan, has been trying to make the case that he has a real shot at taking down one of the GOP’s most visible leaders, and his campaign is now touting a new poll showing the race is closer than most expected.

The internal poll, provided to Salon ahead of its release, shows Zerban behind by just 8 points among likely voters when respondents were read a “profile statement” about the candidate. FM3 Research, which conducted the survey, wrote in a memo, “Paul Ryan is not the overwhelming favorite in the 1st Congressional District race … Rob Zerban remains a credible challenger.” After respondents were read the statement, 39 percent indicate they will vote for Zerban, while 47 say they will vote for Ryan. Another 4 percent went for a third-party candidate while 11 percent were undecided.

Zerban’s campaign argues that its poll, by giving people a bit more information about the Democrat, shows the potential their candidate has once he increases his name recognition and spreads his message to more voters. Given that most voters in the district still do not know Zerban, there is opportunity for him to improve his standing as his name ID increases. “As Zerban initiates a more active communications and outreach program over the next few weeks and voter attention toward the November election intensifies, we anticipate the race for the 1st Congressional District will tighten and it will become a very competitive campaign,” the polling memo states. The poll of 404 likely general election voters in the district was conducted the week before the Republican National Convention, between Aug. 21 and 23, via both land line and cellphones, with a margin of error of 4.9 percent.

More:

http://www.salon.com/2012/09/12/poll_ryans_race_closer_than_expected//

[liberal N proud]

1. Ryan could be stuck between a rock and a hard place

Which one he chooses to campaign for sends a message.

[Scuba]

2. Wanna help toss Ryan? A couple buck would help. Here's the link...

http://www.robzerban.com

[bigdarryl]

3. An 8 point lead is not close

[Cosmocat]

8. Yeah

it simply makes Ryan not look imposing.

It is a pretty safe lead.

[upaloopa]

4. The real Ryan comes through as he travels the national campaign trail. People don't like him

just as they don't like Mittens. I would love to see him get a pink slip in November.

[rfranklin]

5. If there are VP debates people will really dislike him...

and Zerban will win.

[LiberalFighter]

6. The VP debate needs to include the agenda of helping to defeat him in his congressional race.

Bring out all of the things that will turn off his supporters.

[davidpdx]

16. Well and here is the downside for Ryan

He's going to have to debate Biden and anything he says and any slip ups in that debate could be used by his Zerban in the congressional campaign. Hopefully Ryan gets clobbered.

As to the OP:The 8 point lead with only 11 undecided though would require Zerban to pick up most of the undecideds and sway some of those who say they'll vote for Ryan. It's not impossible, but it will be difficult.

[onenote]

9. Do you think the people in his district don't already know him?

He's been elected in that district six times. I have family up in that area and as much as I would like for Ryan to win, blind hope doesn't obscure the fact that defeating Ryan in his congressional district is exceedingly unlikely.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

11. Ryan is an expert and artful liar....

His district is very closely divided, and an earnest-looking young man with bright blue eyes and absolutely no moral compasss could do well there. I suspect that the majority of voters in his district have no idea just how extreme he is -- Ryan hasn't had a real challenger in the past several election cycles. If Joe Biden can reveal the man behind the curtain, Zerban has a shot at this.

[hue]

18. Jeff You totally nailed this!!

Wisconsinites--most of them I think--cannot be bothered to look at politics on a deeper level. They see & regretfully vote on the poser image. Republicans bank on low knowledge levels of the voters. Once again the "rock star" image means more to some voters than the character within the person. Eg: Palin, Walker, Bachmann...
But I tend to think Joe Biden knows how to deal with that! Lol!

[Indpndnt]

24. Did they know he's a compulsive liar?

If so, there's no hope for them. If not, perhaps they might not want to be represented by such a creature, particularly after the debates and the inevitable fact-check fail.

[onenote]

25. I wish I had your optimism.

It would truly be great if Ryan got knocked out of Congress. But I just have trouble seeing how it happens. Unseating home-grown, multi-term members of Congress is notoriously difficult -- indeed, nearly impossible. My own Congressional district was represented by a "local boy" for years, even though he was a repub in a district that voted overwhelmingly for Democrats in every other race (President, governor, senate, etc). His views on national issues were out of sync with the district and over time, it did cut into his margins of victory. But he kept on winning because he brought home the bacon for the district. And while the fact that Ryan rails against federal spending nationally, while putting out his hand for his district makes him a hypocrite to the rest of the country, I doubt that it bothers those in his district nearly as much.

Two other factors that I think make this a very unlikely win for us. The district already leaned republican (despite having gone to Obama narrowly over McCain in 2008). But after redistricting, it is even more solidly repub. In fact, Ryan has been described as one of the ten biggest beneficiaries of redistricting in the country. That fact, plus the fact that Ryan has a huge, multi-million dollar warchest, gives him an enormous advantage. Under the circumstances, it is highly unlikely that the DCCC will spend much of anything on this race -- there are closer, more winnable races that could use the money.

Maybe your right -- lightning will strike during the one Biden/Ryan debate and his local support will evaporate. I hope so. But I just have trouble seeing anything that damaging occurring. Local districts have a long history of re-electing scoundrels and knaves.

[onenote]

7. I hope Zerban can make a run at Ryan, but the fact is that he's

not really very close at this point. Eight points is a substantial margin, and polling at under 40 percent less than 2 months before the election, when your opponent has gotten over 60 percent of the vote in five of six elections (even when the district itself went for Obama over McCain) suggests its a long shot at best.

Again, I'd love to see Zerban win this, but the realist in me says not to get excited by these poll numbers.

[TroyD]

10. It may be a longshot, but . . .

Even coming in a close 2nd will be a message to Ryan and his agenda.

[Swede Atlanta]

13. I don't think having Zerban come in as a close second will send any kind of message....

These guys on the right are only interested in one thing - winning. They would never interpret a 47 - 42 with 11 pc going to a 3rd party or something as any indication people don't like what he stands for. It should because 53% of the population voted for someone else. But in their minds the fact the system gave them a win and they can retain control and continue to ruin the lives of millions of Americans is all that matters.

[TroyD]

15. It doesn't matter what the right-wing thinks

The message would be sent to the media and the general public. It would get talked about on election night if it was only a small win for Ryan.

Who cares whether the right wing consider it important.

[iemitsu]

12. the people of janesville don't or haven't known paul ryan for years.

he has been in DC.
now these people are watching as paul ryan embarrasses them nationally.
it is one thing to vote for the local rich kid with family name recognition when that is mainly what you know about him and completely another to vote for a man whom the whole world recognizes as a liar.
i suspect that most don't want to be associated with that.
the more ryan is in the spotlight the more likely he will lose his house seat.
at least i hope this is so.

[onenote]

17. He had been in DC for years before he came back to run in 1998

and despite the fact that he was running against a better known, local Democratic office holder and both sides had about the same amount of money, he cruised to a 14 point victory.

The people of Janesville know Ryan. He hasn't hidden his views under a rock. Yet, even when they voted for Obama over McCain, they reelected Ryan by a wide margin.

Look, I would love to be able to reach the conclusion that Ryan is in danger of losing his district, but at the moment, I just don't see any facts that support that conclusion. And there was thread on DU that claimed that some PACs were planning on spending $60 million to defeat Ryan in his district. That's absurd and its not going to happen. And if people want to donate to Zerban, that's great. But given that I can't support every Democrat that's running, I'm studying the races and choosing to put my financial support into close races where Democrats have the best shot at holding onto or picking up seats, particularly in the Senate.

[hue]

19. People in WI vote on name recognition alone--look at Tommy Thompson.

Tommy offers Wisconsinites less than nothing yet Wisconsinites vote for him because that's the only name they are familiar with. It's a sad, stupid story...

[TroyD]

21. Tommy Thompson

That's why I wish Russ Feingold had run for Herb Kohl's vacant seat. Baldwin is a great person, but she's struggling because she doesn't have the name recognition of Thompson.

Polls in early 2012 showed matchups with Feingold vs. Thompson and showed Feingold could beat him. I wrote to Feingold and asked him to run, and others did too, but perhaps he wasn't motivated to run so soon after the loss to Johnson in 2010.

[iemitsu]

27. it is an easy name to remember.

and even easy to spell. i guess that is worth votes.

[Enrique]

14. is this about his marathon running?

[Cognitive_Resonance]

20. An incumbent polling under 50% is vulnerable. Hope Zerban takes Wonderboy Ryan down. nt

[julian09]

22. That poll was taken before Gop convention Zerban should have improved some

the national press was onto Ryans lies that he stated at the convention, big time for days even before the marathon lie.
He is an embarrassment to his district, unbelievable and not to be taken seriously. Like Clinton said, he's got a lot of brass.

[onenote]

26. You're assuming that his supporters are capable of embarrassment.

But I've seen too many utterly embarrassing repubs get re-elected (case in point: Michele Bachmann) to put stock in the district throwing him out, as much as I'd like to see it happen.

[FSogol]

23. Haw-haw. Let's make that loser a double loser!