Claims about Bernie following same trend as Obama in 2008 are now clearly bunk.

[DCBob]

One month prior (Dec 1) to the Iowa caucus in 2008 (which was Jan 3) Obama was tied 27-27 with Clinton and moving up in the RCP average of polls. Currently, also about 1 month prior to the Iowa caucus, Clinton is leading Sanders 50-38 in the same RCP average of polls.

2008:


Current:

[workinclasszero]

1. They always were bunk

But its nice to see proof of it, thanks.

[Cha]

23. That was my first thought.. second and third!

Happy New Year, workingclass!

[workinclasszero]

24. Happy new year to you Cha!

[FloridaBlues]

29. Cha was just thinking same. Yes always bunk and wishful thinking

[Cha]

40. ..

[riversedge]

41. Agree.

[MohRokTah]

2. Comparisons to 2008 were more about desperate hope than anything else. eom

[Armstead]

3. Yeah okay sure....Good luck with that in the General, and pray for a Trump nomination

Maybe you're correct. I dunno. There's still time.

But if Clinton runs against a "reasonable" seeming Republican, Clinton will likely either lose or win by a narrow, nail buiting margin, because people in the middle will want a "change" and she aint it.

So you better start praying that someone like Trump wins the GOP nomination, who will scare middle of the roadsters to Clinton.

[upaloopa]

6. The last place I would seek information about

Hillary's chances in the general is from a Sanders supporter.

[Armstead]

9. The last person you would ask for the time of day is a Sanders supporter

I get it. You are so predictable in your antipathy that you have become truly boring.

[upaloopa]

18. I am not impressed

[Armstead]

32. Didn't expect you to be

[seabeyond]

21. As of today, and that is all I am speaking to, I am comfortable where Cinton sits in GE.

[NCTraveler]

4. They always were bunk...

And a cheap shot at Obama in my opinion. Seems we are on about week four of not seeing that laughable line being trotted out.

[JonLeibowitz]

5. A cheap shot at Obama? HAHA! That's the most ridiculous statement I have seen all week. n/t

[NCTraveler]

8. Glad you are having a solid week!!!

[cali]

7. They were never accurate

[concreteblue]

10. Hate to say this, but I agree.

The 2008 charts show a very close race with 3 candidates with similar trend lines. THe ones from this race show Clinton in a stable to downward trend and Senator Sanders in a steady uptrend. So, yeah, right. No comparison.

[bowens43]

11. keep hopng........,LOL

get ready to have a repeat 2008

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. A $100.00 donation to DU says HRC will be the Democratic nominee

That is easy to verify.



Happy New Year
DSB

[Cha]

25. No need to be hoping.. the OP laid out the facts.

[SoapBox]

12. Good luck.

Party like it's 2008 because it's going to be a repeat.

[gordyfl]

14. How About the Gallup Poll 2 Weeks Before Iowa Caucus 2007?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. That's a nat'l poll. The seminal poster cited IA polls./nt

[rjsquirrel]

31. No one poll

is evidence of anything.

The OP is discussing aggregated and averaged polls, plural.

There is no argument to be made from polls that Sanders or Clinton is inevitable. But there is little basis for identifying any parallel to 2008, when a third strong left candidate was running. To replace a disastrous GOP fool.

In my view Sanders is about splitting the Edwards/Obama support. Without foreign policy experience or ethnic appeal or youthful good looks and saddled with the label "socialist," Sanders will not grab enough more conservative Black, Latino, rural, and business or foreign policy driven women, especially, to prevent Clinton from being the precise change candidate we need to win.

Yes she's been around forever and has high unfavorables. But she's a woman. Watch this happen: the right will vastly overplay their misogyny card and there will be a backlash among women voters (similarly for Latinos, HRC would be wise to pick a centrist male Latino VP like Julian Castro).

Gender will emerge as the main issue after the primaries. It always has been, just like race and class and more recently sexuality. If the GOP nominates Trump they will lose to HRC by historic margins among women centrists across all ethnic and class groups.

[gordyfl]

38. I agree, Gender Will Emerge as Main Issue, Should Hillary Win

I agree, if Hillary wins the nomination, she will use the gender card. Gender has been her strategy from the beginning.
If Trump wins the nomination, it would help her chances immensely. I doubt very much Trump will win the nomination.
Going back, Hillary was preparing for a run against Jeb, with a cakewalk through the Democratic Primaries. Bernie Sanders has caused the Hillary team to adjust their strategy. I believe, if the Primary is close, Hillary will pull out the gender card and use sexism against Bernie. Right now, she has to be careful.

I do not see Hillary as the "change" candidate.

People want change. Real Change. That's Bernie.

[oasis]

39. A salute to Post#31 for 100% correctness.

[Ferd Berfel]

17. This is an agrigation of many polls. The problem is the same with most of the Hillary is ahead"

polls posted here.

I dont' have time to go all of them. Here are the first 3 on the list and it show the problem I keep noticing...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html#polls

Gravis:
http://www.chartgo.com/share.do?id=1aeaad7daa#.VoarfE_E3TQ

CBS/YouGov - http://www.scribd.com/doc/293729658/CBS-News-December-2015-Battleground-Tracker-Iowa

25. What racial or ethnic group best describes you?

White ...................................................................95%
Black .................................................................... 1%
Hispanic .................................................................1%
Other .................................................................... 3%

PPP (D) - http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_110215.pdf

NOTHING published on demographic of races polled


Here are a couple at random:

Quinnipiac http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ia/ia11252015_I76ptrnw.pdf

NOTHING published on demographic of races polled


Monmouth http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/9a435a5e-2c3d-4b5d-b0ea-a45c5192af0a.pdf

POLL DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)

94% White, non-Hispanic
6% Others

We seem to be ignoring the opinion of almost everyone who isn't white - And Hillary Wins!

[peacebird]

26. Exactly, polls appear to be devised to give a certain desired result by choosing a demographic

That skews white and older

[dsc]

36. they are polling Iowa

Which has those demographics. Also she is leading by a larger margin among people of color.

[Ferd Berfel]

37. You'll see the same thing in the "natonal' polls.

Start checking methodology and demo's as people post these "scientific" polls.

[ViseGrip]

19. Decieving polls I tell you just look at this crosspost.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251963524

Hillary vs. Bernie rally attendance in Iowa (Plus video)
(I posted this a couple of times as a response to a couple of OPs; and someone asked that I make it an OP.)

These are attendance numbers for Hillary and Bernie town-hall style events in Iowa--in early and mid-December. Clinton hasn't had any events in Iowa since 12/22 (and also interesting that Bernie has had 20 Iowa events *since* 12/22).

I've been astounded at how anemic her crowd numbers are. Definitely smaller than 2008. In all fairness, we're about to enter the very busy caucus season. Things will ramp up and attendance at all rallies will increase. I do think this December attendance is interesting and important--because the differences are so stark.

Bernie
2000 attendees--Sanders Town Meeting in Dubuque, Iowa (12/12) Overflow crowd Source: Radio Iowa
1500 attendees--Sanders Town Meeting in Waterloo, Iowa (12/12) Standing-room only. Source: Waterloo Courier
1125 attendees--Sanders Town Hall in Mt. Vernon, Iowa (12/13)

Clinton
200 attendees--"Fighting for Us" Town Hall in Ft. Dodge, Iowa (12/4) Source: ABC News
350 attendees--"Fighting For Us" Town Hall in Waterloo, Iowa (12/9) Source: Waterloo Courier
250 attendees_"Fighting For Us" Town Hall in Urbandale Iowa (12/9) Source: Radio Iowa

Also: Here is video of a Clinton rally, filmed by ABC News. The audience numbers are very low. If you look at the video starting at 2:04, you can see empty rows of chairs in the back. They aren't able to fill the chairs, even at small venues. http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/video/supporters-rally-hillary-clinton-iowa-town-hall-35588843

[peacebird]

27. The millenials and those who were turned off by politics previously will give Bernie victory

As long as we get them registered and to the polls!

[Persondem]

20. Definately NOT 2008. Clinton's lead is comfortably outside the MoE. K & R nt

[Flying Squirrel]

22. How could he?

The MSM constantly covered Obama and Hillary in 2007 and pretended John Edwards didn't exist. Edwards predictably tanked. Now they're constantly covering Hillary and pretending Bernie doesn't exist. So of course it's gonna be a bigger mountain for him to climb than Obama, he isn't getting the free press Obama got.

That being said, I still expect him to overtake Hillary, because demographics have changed and people are even more fed up with the status quo. But it will definitely not be a carbon copy of the Obama trend.

[Gothmog]

28. Sanders is no Barack Obama

[NurseJackie]

30. He certainly isn't.

There's a reason his poll numbers are stagnant and so dreadfully low.

[BlueMTexpat]

33. + a million or so . eom

[BlueMTexpat]

34. Moving on from Iowa, things currently

look VG to Excellent for Hillary throughout the US. Here are the Wiki composites of state polls, although those states where no polls have been held within the last six months have not been included. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016

We won't know the results until the actual voting takes place, of course. In some states, there is still a large percentage of undecided voters. But in others, if the current figures hold, undecided voters who opt for one candidate or another will not change the current predicted outcome in those states.

[DCBob]

35. Looks like Super Tuesday will be a very good day for the Hillary team.