2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumClaims about Bernie following same trend as Obama in 2008 are now clearly bunk.
One month prior (Dec 1) to the Iowa caucus in 2008 (which was Jan 3) Obama was tied 27-27 with Clinton and moving up in the RCP average of polls. Currently, also about 1 month prior to the Iowa caucus, Clinton is leading Sanders 50-38 in the same RCP average of polls.
2008:
Current:
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)But its nice to see proof of it, thanks.
Cha
(296,762 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)FloridaBlues
(4,002 posts)riversedge
(70,047 posts)MohRokTah
(15,429 posts)Armstead
(47,803 posts)Maybe you're correct. I dunno. There's still time.
But if Clinton runs against a "reasonable" seeming Republican, Clinton will likely either lose or win by a narrow, nail buiting margin, because people in the middle will want a "change" and she aint it.
So you better start praying that someone like Trump wins the GOP nomination, who will scare middle of the roadsters to Clinton.
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)Hillary's chances in the general is from a Sanders supporter.
Armstead
(47,803 posts)I get it. You are so predictable in your antipathy that you have become truly boring.
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)Armstead
(47,803 posts)seabeyond
(110,159 posts)NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)And a cheap shot at Obama in my opinion. Seems we are on about week four of not seeing that laughable line being trotted out.
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)cali
(114,904 posts)concreteblue
(626 posts)The 2008 charts show a very close race with 3 candidates with similar trend lines. THe ones from this race show Clinton in a stable to downward trend and Senator Sanders in a steady uptrend. So, yeah, right. No comparison.
bowens43
(16,064 posts)get ready to have a repeat 2008
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)That is easy to verify.
Happy New Year
DSB
Cha
(296,762 posts)SoapBox
(18,791 posts)Party like it's 2008 because it's going to be a repeat.
Response to DCBob (Original post)
DemocratSinceBirth This message was self-deleted by its author.
gordyfl
(598 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)rjsquirrel
(4,762 posts)is evidence of anything.
The OP is discussing aggregated and averaged polls, plural.
There is no argument to be made from polls that Sanders or Clinton is inevitable. But there is little basis for identifying any parallel to 2008, when a third strong left candidate was running. To replace a disastrous GOP fool.
In my view Sanders is about splitting the Edwards/Obama support. Without foreign policy experience or ethnic appeal or youthful good looks and saddled with the label "socialist," Sanders will not grab enough more conservative Black, Latino, rural, and business or foreign policy driven women, especially, to prevent Clinton from being the precise change candidate we need to win.
Yes she's been around forever and has high unfavorables. But she's a woman. Watch this happen: the right will vastly overplay their misogyny card and there will be a backlash among women voters (similarly for Latinos, HRC would be wise to pick a centrist male Latino VP like Julian Castro).
Gender will emerge as the main issue after the primaries. It always has been, just like race and class and more recently sexuality. If the GOP nominates Trump they will lose to HRC by historic margins among women centrists across all ethnic and class groups.
gordyfl
(598 posts)I agree, if Hillary wins the nomination, she will use the gender card. Gender has been her strategy from the beginning.
If Trump wins the nomination, it would help her chances immensely. I doubt very much Trump will win the nomination.
Going back, Hillary was preparing for a run against Jeb, with a cakewalk through the Democratic Primaries. Bernie Sanders has caused the Hillary team to adjust their strategy. I believe, if the Primary is close, Hillary will pull out the gender card and use sexism against Bernie. Right now, she has to be careful.
I do not see Hillary as the "change" candidate.
People want change. Real Change. That's Bernie.
oasis
(49,317 posts)Ferd Berfel
(3,687 posts)polls posted here.
I dont' have time to go all of them. Here are the first 3 on the list and it show the problem I keep noticing...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html#polls
Gravis:
http://www.chartgo.com/share.do?id=1aeaad7daa#.VoarfE_E3TQ
CBS/YouGov - http://www.scribd.com/doc/293729658/CBS-News-December-2015-Battleground-Tracker-Iowa
25. What racial or ethnic group best describes you?
White ...................................................................95%
Black .................................................................... 1%
Hispanic .................................................................1%
Other .................................................................... 3%
PPP (D) - http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_110215.pdf
NOTHING published on demographic of races polled
Here are a couple at random:
Quinnipiac http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ia/ia11252015_I76ptrnw.pdf
NOTHING published on demographic of races polled
Monmouth http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/9a435a5e-2c3d-4b5d-b0ea-a45c5192af0a.pdf
POLL DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)
94% White, non-Hispanic
6% Others
We seem to be ignoring the opinion of almost everyone who isn't white - And Hillary Wins!
peacebird
(14,195 posts)That skews white and older
dsc
(52,147 posts)Which has those demographics. Also she is leading by a larger margin among people of color.
Ferd Berfel
(3,687 posts)Start checking methodology and demo's as people post these "scientific" polls.
ViseGrip
(3,133 posts)Hillary vs. Bernie rally attendance in Iowa (Plus video)
(I posted this a couple of times as a response to a couple of OPs; and someone asked that I make it an OP.)
These are attendance numbers for Hillary and Bernie town-hall style events in Iowa--in early and mid-December. Clinton hasn't had any events in Iowa since 12/22 (and also interesting that Bernie has had 20 Iowa events *since* 12/22).
I've been astounded at how anemic her crowd numbers are. Definitely smaller than 2008. In all fairness, we're about to enter the very busy caucus season. Things will ramp up and attendance at all rallies will increase. I do think this December attendance is interesting and important--because the differences are so stark.
Bernie
2000 attendees--Sanders Town Meeting in Dubuque, Iowa (12/12) Overflow crowd Source: Radio Iowa
1500 attendees--Sanders Town Meeting in Waterloo, Iowa (12/12) Standing-room only. Source: Waterloo Courier
1125 attendees--Sanders Town Hall in Mt. Vernon, Iowa (12/13)
Clinton
200 attendees--"Fighting for Us" Town Hall in Ft. Dodge, Iowa (12/4) Source: ABC News
350 attendees--"Fighting For Us" Town Hall in Waterloo, Iowa (12/9) Source: Waterloo Courier
250 attendees_"Fighting For Us" Town Hall in Urbandale Iowa (12/9) Source: Radio Iowa
Also: Here is video of a Clinton rally, filmed by ABC News. The audience numbers are very low. If you look at the video starting at 2:04, you can see empty rows of chairs in the back. They aren't able to fill the chairs, even at small venues. http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/video/supporters-rally-hillary-clinton-iowa-town-hall-35588843
peacebird
(14,195 posts)As long as we get them registered and to the polls!
Persondem
(1,936 posts)Flying Squirrel
(3,041 posts)The MSM constantly covered Obama and Hillary in 2007 and pretended John Edwards didn't exist. Edwards predictably tanked. Now they're constantly covering Hillary and pretending Bernie doesn't exist. So of course it's gonna be a bigger mountain for him to climb than Obama, he isn't getting the free press Obama got.
That being said, I still expect him to overtake Hillary, because demographics have changed and people are even more fed up with the status quo. But it will definitely not be a carbon copy of the Obama trend.
Gothmog
(144,884 posts)NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)There's a reason his poll numbers are stagnant and so dreadfully low.
BlueMTexpat
(15,365 posts)BlueMTexpat
(15,365 posts)look VG to Excellent for Hillary throughout the US. Here are the Wiki composites of state polls, although those states where no polls have been held within the last six months have not been included. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016
We won't know the results until the actual voting takes place, of course. In some states, there is still a large percentage of undecided voters. But in others, if the current figures hold, undecided voters who opt for one candidate or another will not change the current predicted outcome in those states.