Intrade: Obama 67.3% Romney 33.3%

[Doctor Jack]

I'm starting to think people have lost confidence that Romney can win....

[woodsprite]

1. I want O's numbers to be in the freakin' 90's by election day.

I want Mitt, and all other repubs to get *C*R*U*S*H*E*D* at the polls!

[Cali_Democrat]

2. Whoa!!

[Dawson Leery]

3. "Romney is UNFIT FOR COMMAND" - Redstate.com

[abumbyanyothername]

4. I suppose I should be happy

But I despise the phrase "unfit for command."

Not to mention redstate.com.

sigh.

[TroyD]

5. Erick Erickson is saying that?

That surprises me.

What does Red State say about Romney in particular?

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

6. Intrade is a smallish number of mostly non-Americans betting on stuff.

I don't know why they get so much credibility here.

The Intrade market was very confident that the ACA Supreme Court ruling was going to find the legislation unconstitutional also. Why they should have special insight into that I'm not sure.

[grantcart]

8. Because overall their record is very good

Of course the more people that are involved the better the result.

All of the prediction markets are running the same ratios for the Presidential GE.

http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2012presidentindividual

If you think that they aren't very good then you should bet against them and make a lot of money.

The value is that its not some persons opinion but people's willingness to bet on an outcome which has been shown to have a much greater predictive effect than a poll.

In anycase it is very useful in showing immediate market reactions because unlike a poll that you have to wait for the market is always active. The Gallup poll is run over a 7 day period so you have to wait several days before you see the effect from the last 24 hours. Intrade is moving in real time.

Finally even if you don't think it is a good predictor (in which case you should be betting against it and making money) it is a useful index because it establishes a baseline and you can measure movement in real time.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

9. Well it's not legal for Americans these days, so I can't exactly do that now.

[outsideworld]

7. How accurate were they

were they during 2008 election cycle