Nate Silver 538 still thinks Hillary is a "near lock for the nomination"

[pnwmom]

no matter what happens in Iowa and New Hampshire.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-can-still-catch-hillary-clinton-in-iowa/

Indeed, anyone who has been following my writing this year knows that I think Clinton is a near-lock for the Democratic nomination even if she loses the first two states. Still, Clinton probably doesn’t want a lengthy primary season against an opponent who has pulled her further to the left. She wants to pivot toward the center while the Republican race devolves into a possible (metaphorical) fistfight.

Clinton, though, can’t set her eyes on the general election just yet. The Democratic race may not be receiving the attention that the Republican race is, but Clinton’s path to the nomination definitely has the potential to become a little rockier than many believe.

[Bleacher Creature]

1. IA and NH have always been the epitome of moral victories.

After that, I have a hard time seeing Sanders winning anywhere else (other than, of course, Vermont).

That said, winning Iowa would be a huge psychological boost, as it would show that she's learned from 2008. I suspect her campaign team feels the same way, so I would be shocked if she underperformed.

[JonLeibowitz]

2. It is no secret that Hillary plans on reversing positions on her supposed progressiveness.

But many moderates believe she will come around once the primary contest is over, particularly over trade when her opposition to Obama’s Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) deal is the biggest thorn in the side of pro-business Democrats.

“I’d lie if I said I wasn’t disappointed with the statement that she made on TPP,” says Representative Kind. “Everyone knew where she was on that and where she will be, but given the necessities of the moment and a tough Democratic primary, she felt she needed to go there initially.”

From agreed. “Hillary will bend a little bit, but not so much that she can’t get herself back on course in the general [election] and when she is governing,” he said.

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/nov/08/new-democrats-sound-alarm-over-sanders-clinton-leftward-march

No secret at all.

[MeNMyVolt]

3. So, you posit that the Democratic frontrunner is a liar.

Is that your post?

[HerbChestnut]

4. I don't think it's that hard to figure out.

Even people within the Democratic establishment knows she's just pandering to the left in order to fend off Bernie.

[MeNMyVolt]

6. Thank you JonLeibowitz for answering.

Now, Hercbestnit, care to call HRC a liar, or you going to dance around it.

[Hekate]

25. >snrk<

It seems like that sometimes, doesn't it?

[JonLeibowitz]

5. My well-sourced post stands on its own. It has nothing to do with what I posit.

Your conclusions are your own.

[winter is coming]

9. Bosnian sniper fire. n/t

[Art_from_Ark]

30. Wanting to join the marines as a newlywed

"Hoping" that the TPP would become a "gold standard of trade agreements"

Claiming to be a diehard progressive in one place, then at another place pleading "guilty" to being a "moderate/centrist"

Shillling for the vast right-wing conspiracy's Iraq War Resolution on the floor of the Senate

[Warren DeMontague]

21. The OP itself suggests she wants to "pivot to the center"

My biggest problem with that is, it reflects badly out of touch beltway conventional wisdom --- which thinks this is still 2004, and we need to appease 'values voters'.

She should stop listening to the people who tell her this crap, and start coming up with ways to woo Millennial voters, etc.

[tritsofme]

22. Hillary's opposition to President Obama's trade agenda is clearly disingenuous.

And an artifact of the primary season.

As a strong supporter of her campaign, I don't find this to be a controversial observation.

I find it disappointing, though it doesn't make her a liar, only a politician.

[MeNMyVolt]

24. OK, that I can agree with.

I keep waiting for the usual people I agree with to weigh in on this (Krugman, etc.).

I don't think I usually agree with you, but on this I do have questions.

[Godhumor]

7. Harry Enten not Nate Silver for this article

Though Nate does share his convictions (I believe he last put odds on Clinton at 88%).

[Thinkingabout]

8. The last time the DNC candidate lost both Iowa and NH, he came back to win the

Last edited Mon Jan 4, 2016, 11:11 PM - Edit history (1)

Nomination and the election against an incumbent, has a familiar name, Clinton.

[Ned_Devine]

26. The DNC?

Was that a freudian slip?

[Thinkingabout]

27. I corrected, it was DNC candidate.

[SCantiGOP]

10. Not so quick

Remember he only picked 49 out of 50 states in 2008, so he could be wrong.

(For reference, he had NC and Indiana as toss-ups, so at the last minute he put NC in the Obama column and IN for McCain. Obama carried both, but most polls had him losing IN by 2-3 points.)

[reformist2]

11. So, Mr. 538 say Hillary "wants to pivot toward the center," but Bernie won't let her. Ugh.

[AZ Progressive]

15. Can't the peons just realize that government is supposed to be there to serve the oligarchs?

Those pesky liberals / progressives that think that government is supposed to serve the people, ugh!

[Thinkingabout]

29. It is good to see Sanders returning to the left on gun issues.

[onehandle]

12. 100% nt

[rbrnmw]

13. thanks

[AZ Progressive]

14. Yeah, those pesky liberals, trying to pull Hillary to the left, when she really wants to be in the

center...

[MeNMyVolt]

16. Pesky Paulites or Greens, more like it.

Couple of aging Nader-fucks to top it off.

[rbrnmw]

17. ...

I strongly recommend this comment

[Broward]

20. And today's center is yesterday's right.

If the Party continues to back Third Wayers, today's right will be tomorrow's center.

[winter is coming]

31. +all the numbers. n/t

[Art_from_Ark]

33. If Bobby Kennedy were alive today,

he'd be ridiculed as an "extreme leftist" by some of today's so-called "Democrats".

[okasha]

18. Of course he does.

He's sane.

And he can do the math.

[NurseJackie]

38. Ha!! :-D (nt)

[FloridaBlues]

19. Agree with Nate Silver the polling beyond the two states is impressive

[Laser102]

23. Nate Silver is brilliant. Then again we all are. We're backing Hillary!!

[ronnykmarshall]

28. Nate Silver a prawn on the right wing

An emeny of The PeoplE!

[Number23]

32. "a prawn on the right wing"

[okasha]

36. Tartar sauce, please.

[Nonhlanhla]

41. Hmm, fishy argument...

[randome]

42. Get those chips off your shoulder. Try to ketch up.

[hr][font color="blue"][center]I'm always right. When I'm wrong I admit it.
So then I'm right about being wrong.[/center][/font][hr]

[oasis]

34. "Near lock"? I'll just bump that up to "Sure thing".

Better.

[Fearless]

35. Ahhh new memes are out!

[TSIAS]

37. I respect Silver's analysis

But in politics things change. If you went back a year would he (or anyone) have predicted that JEB! would be polling under 5 % nationally?

I have to think if Sanders wins both Iowa and New Hampshire that Sanders will get a tremendous boost nationally.

[NurseJackie]

39. Many things can happen in an entire year.

But looking at my calendar, there's not much time remaining for Bernie to make his move. Looking at the polls, there really aren't enough "undecided" voters to make a difference for Bernie, and it's unlikely that he'll be able to strip away enough support from Hillary's fans to make a difference either.

And, looking at O'Malley's numbers, even if he were to drop-out of the race, and even if all of his supporters moved to Bernie (unlikely, but let's be generous for the sake of argument) it still wouldn't be enough to make a difference.

Whatever happens to help Bernie improve will need to be earth-shattering. Could something like that happen? Well, sure, anything is possible. Is it likely that something like that could happen? Probably not.




PS: Poor Jeb.

[randome]

40. Hm. I wonder what Debbie has on him.

[hr][font color="blue"][center]I'm always right. When I'm wrong I admit it.
So then I'm right about being wrong.[/center][/font][hr]

[Orsino]

43. We still get to vote, mostly...

...but money does usually seem to get the last word.

Tough fight.