Hypothetical Question: What if the early Primaries are inconclusive?

[Armstead]

Just wondering what people think, in an objective sense.

We're looking for the primaries to settle or at least set the tone of the overall race and subsequent primaries.

Sanders supporters are hoping for an upset, in which Bernie comes from behind to overcome Clinton and begin momentum that could cause peopke to rethink the race.

Clinton is hoping for a decisive enough victory, to start putting this pesky fellow in his place and let her sweep the table qukckly.

But what if the results are totally nebulous and inconclusive? Suppose in both state the margin of victory for whomever is so small that it is a defacto tie?

Bernie proves he can attract major votes and Clinton proves that she can hold her own. But neither one gets enough of an advantage to actually prove anything conclusive.

How would that affect the momentum for the subsequent primaries ? Or would it be
back to Square One?

[Ino]

1. It would prove to those who think Sanders doesn't have a chance...

that he DOES have a chance, he CAN win, if they will get out & vote for him!

He will get momentum. Hillary will panic, go very aggressive & negative.

[DisgustipatedinCA]

3. ...and therefore, we should all vote for Clinton now to avoid a damaging primary battle.

I wish there was another way to go about this, but we looked into all of the possibilities, and it turns out you hippies need to get with the program and vote Hillary!

(Since I don't know you, I'll explicitly state: this is sarcasm)

[leftofcool]

2. The NH primary is not winner take all

The delegates will be split among the top two candidates. Also there are only 65 delegates available in both NH and IA. Hillary and Bernie will probably both come out with about 30 delegates each.

[Armstead]

4. | was referring to vote totals and perceptions

Shallow as it may be, that's what affects the zeitgeist.

[emulatorloo]

5. defacto tie = for the most part, square one.

However Bernie will get more media coverage than he has been getting. That is gonna be a mixed blessing because let's face it, the press loves to shit on Democrats.

I've long been predicting Bernie will win Iowa and New Hampshire. Still believe that but I expected Bernie would be much further ahead of HRC in Iowa polling by now. IA Caucus looks like it is gonna be more of a nail-biter than I thought it would be.

[FSogol]

6. What happens? President Martin O'Malley, that's what happens.

[DavidDvorkin]

9. That's exactly what I was thinking.

[Recursion]

39. Your lips to God's ears (nt)

[Maedhros]

7. A tie is a victory for Sanders.

Clinton's campaign and its surrogates went all-in on the "Hillary can't lose!" talking point. She needs to beat Sanders soundly to make that appear even remotely true. If the early primaries are ties, or even close Clinton victories, the "inevitable" meme that was so carefully built up will have been shown to be just another Clinton fabrication.

[azmom]

12. [phone]

[Gothmog]

29. Sanders is polling well in four states with over 90+% white voting populations

Sanders has to win and win by a large margin to change the narrative. Even with good victories, the Sanders campaign is still not doing well with POC and so South Carolina, Nevada and the Super Tuesday primaries will be long days

Texas alone has almost twice the number of delegates as Utah, New Hampshire, Iowa and Vermont combined. It is hard to see a path to the nomination for Sanders unless he can expand his base of supporters

[RobertEarl]

8. California may decide who wins

And it will carry Bernie.

How cool would that be?

[Le Taz Hot]

22. I think it will be decided before California but

if it gets this far, California WILL go for Bernie. Guaranteed.

[Gothmog]

30. Have there been any polling showing Latino voters moving into the Sanders camp?

I have not seen that polling

[Le Taz Hot]

32. LOL!

There are far greater things in heaven and earth than can be divined from your polls. Besides, California's primary is in June. We SO got this. Hills won't know what hit her.

[Gothmog]

33. So there is no such polling

Thank you for confirming.

I agree that this contest will be over by the time of the California primary. Super Tuesday will be fun for the Clinton supporters

[Motown_Johnny]

10. Then the new fundraising will have a big impact.

Because many of Hillary's contributors have maxed out, her campaign might run into money problems.

Bernie's small contributors might then step up and actually give him a fundraising advantage.

I think Hillary only had about 10 million more on hand than Bernie as of the first of the year. This can be overcome if the early stages are inconclusive.

[Joe the Revelator]

11. Anything less than a Hillary blow out of Sanders....

...will be viewed as a Sanders' victory in the mainstream.

[brentspeak]

13. It will help Sanders

The media would be forced to cover his campaign more closely, giving the campaign greater public recognition and, thus, needed momentum as it heads to the "big" states against Clinton. An Iowa/NH stalemate doesn't cripple HRC's campaign, but it would make it vulnerable to a major upset should Bernie's campaign continue to grow in momentum. Hillary wants nothing more than to knock Bernie's campaign out quickly so that she can concentrate on a presumed GE run, but that can't happen so long as she can't shake Bernie.

[kenfrequed]

14. Her surrogates are at work

They are already trying to play an expectations game and be "the comeback kid II". The problem is an expectations game only works if you are perceived as the underdog. Sanders would eat an " expectation game" and build momentum off of that.

Expect a " Bernie stole my data" campaign to be huge in South Carolina. It is the state where candidates sell their souls. Pity it features so early.

[senz]

15. Politics is nerve-wracking. nt

[Godhumor]

16. Super Tuesday will tell the tale, regardless of outcome in the early states

That is where the race will be effectively decided (Either Clinton's firewall holds and Bernie is toast, or it doesn't and she is screwed.).

[Gothmog]

31. Agreed

Super Tuesday will be fun to watch

[anigbrowl]

17. The the gloves will come off

It has been a very polite primary season so far in terms of what the candidates have said, which is really the only conversation that matters. If it turns into a real bout, Sanders will accuse Clinton of being a corporate shill, and she will accuse him of being an armchair quarterback with only one play.

[MineralMan]

18. The early primaries and caucuses, like all of the ones that follow

select delegates proportionally to the results. If two primary candidates are essentially tied, each gets about half of that state's delegates. In the overall scheme of things, watching the delegate count as the primaries happen is the only real way to see how the candidates are doing.

In the states of IA and NH, relatively few delegates are at stake, so the impact of those states is minor when it comes to the total delegate count. Instead, look at the number of delegates at stake in the March 1 Super Tuesday primaries and caucuses. You can see all of this informaion at this link:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D

As the primaries and caucuses occur, a delegate count will be listed on that page. There's also a lot of information at the processes in each state if you click on the state links.

[Armstead]

21. I am aware of all that. But actual vote totals matter

[MineralMan]

23. They do. They determine how the delegates are allocated.

Some think that the early primaries set the stage for later ones, but that's only sometimes true.

Both Iowa and NH have demographics that are way out of sync with most other states. All 50 states contribute delegates to the Democratic National Convention, so who "wins" in either of those early states does not automatically become the nominee.

Only if those early states cause changes in the minds of the voters in later states will they affect the eventual result.

I'm a long range observer of primary races. I don't pay much attention until Super Tuesday is over.

[randome]

19. We're looking for the primaries to settle or at least set the tone of [DU].

[hr][font color="blue"][center]TECT in the name of the Representative approves of this post.[/center][/font][hr]

[Armstead]

20. It'll do that too, ultimately but I hope you're not saying votes in the primary don't matter

[Gothmog]

28. The votes matter if these vote are in states that represent the demographics of the Democratic party

Last edited Tue Jan 12, 2016, 05:13 PM - Edit history (1)

All votes matter but the people in states with more diverse demographics get to vote also and these voters will not care about the votes in two states with 90+% white voter populations

[ljm2002]

24. That would be, advantage Clinton...

...as the presumptive nominee and clear frontrunner from the start, she has a built in advantage similar to that of an incumbent. So if it's inconclusive, then Bernie has not managed to crack the foundation, and she can go on playing to her strengths and the fight becomes harder for him.

He needs clear momentum in order to gain an advantage.

That's my take, anyway.

[LexVegas]

25. Once minorities become a factor...it's over for Sanders. nt

[Gothmog]

26. Even if Sanders wins both Iowa and New Hampshire, he will not be the nominee

Even if Sanders wins both Iowa and New Hampshire, it is unlikely that he will be the nominee http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-new-hampshire/

So why do I still think Sanders is a factional candidate? He hasn’t made any inroads with non-white voters — in particular black voters, a crucial wing of the Democratic coalition and whose support was a big part of President Obama’s toppling of Clinton in the 2008 primary. Not only are African-Americans the majority of Democratic voters in the South Carolina primary (a crucial early contest), they make up somewhere between 19 percent and 24 percent of Democrats nationwide. In the past two YouGov polls, Sanders has averaged just 5 percent with black voters. Ipsos’s weekly tracking poll has him at an average of only 7 percent over the past two weeks. Fox News (the only live-interview pollster to publish results among non-white voters in July and August) had Clinton leading Sanders 62-10 among non-white Democrats in mid-July and 65-14 in mid-August. Clinton’s edge with non-whites held even as Sanders cut her overall lead from 40 percentage points to 19....

But even if you put aside those metrics, Sanders is running into the problem that other insurgent Democrats have in past election cycles. You can win Iowa relying mostly on white liberals. You can win New Hampshire. But as Gary Hart and Bill Bradley learned, you can’t win a Democratic nomination without substantial support from African-Americans.

Iowa and New Hampshire do not represent the demographics of the Democratic Party and so will not help sanders

[Gothmog]

27. What Happens If Bernie Wins Iowa and New Hampshire?

Here is another good analysis that agrees with Nate Silver http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/01/11/bernie_sanders_could_win_iowa_and_new_hampshire.html

What would not change, though, is that Clinton would remain the clear favorite for the Democratic nomination.

Even if Hillary staggers out of New Hampshire with her second loss in as many contests, she’ll still have the same massive advantages she enjoys today: the campaign and super PAC cash, the ground game, the endorsements, the pledged superdelegates, and the general support of a party establishment that won’t soon forget that her challenger is not technically even a part of the Democratic Party. An unexpected loss in Iowa and a less surprising one in New Hampshire wouldn’t change that.

She’d also have a chance to get back on her feet—and fast. Consider what comes next: Nevada (Feb. 20) and South Carolina (Feb. 27), two significantly more diverse states than lily-white Iowa and lily-whiter New Hampshire, and two places where Clinton currently enjoys massive leads in the polls. According to the RealClearPolitics rolling average, Clinton holds a 20-point advantage in Nevada and a whopping 40-point lead in South Carolina. March brings better news still for the former secretary of state, starting with a Super Tuesday slate that includes friendly territory in the form of southern states like Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia. The rest of the month, meanwhile, includes several big, delegate-rich contests that she won eight years ago during her battle with Barack Obama: Michigan, Florida, and Ohio. Yes, Sanders could have the momentum this time next month, but it’ll be on him to to find a way to keep it as he heads into significantly more challenging terrain than Iowa or New Hampshire, which were always going to offer his best chance at pulling off an early upset or two.

None of this is to say that Clinton has the nomination locked up already. She doesn’t. But if Iowa and New Hampshire are must-wins for anyone, it’s Sanders. Hillary can—and likely would—survive a slow start and still be the one standing on stage at the Democratic National Convention when the balloons come down this summer. Bernie, though, has no such margin of error.

Sanders is doing well in states with 90+% white voting populations and these states are not sufficient for Sanders to win the nomination. There are four states where Sanders is polling well: Utah, Iowa, New Hampshire and Vermont. Texas alone has almost twice the number of delegates as these four states combined.

Sanders need to expand his base beyond the current very narrow demographic. Otherwise, he will not be the nominee

[Armstead]

34. It would be a sad commentary on our system if it boils down to this

Okay, I'll grant about the challenges of trying to steal away traditionally Clinton voters.

But it will not speak well of the system if Bernie succeds in attracting votes but it ultimately depends on:

"she’ll still have the same massive advantages she enjoys today: the campaign and super PAC cash, the ground game, the endorsements, the pledged superdelegates, and the general support of a party establishment"

[Gothmog]

35. Sanders needs to expand his base in order to get the nomination

Sanders is only attracting more voters in four states with 90+% white populations. Sanders is not going to be the nominee of the party unless he can win in states with less than 90+% white voters. Iowa and NH do not represent the demographics of the party as a whole and so it is not reasonable to expect the results of these states to have much meaning in other states with very different demographics.

I see nothing wrong with Clinton has an advantage due to endorsements, ground game and cash. In the real world, these elements are important in campaigns. These are proper areas where Clinton should have an advantage over anyone and the solution would be for Sanders to develop a ground game, raise more money and obtain more endorsements.

It is hard to quantify the advantage of the other two factors. There is no such thing as a pledged super delegate in that each super delegate can change their vote up until the roll call at the national convention. If Sanders had a successful campaign, he would get more super delegates. As for support of the party, Sanders might want to consider raising money for the party and caring about down ballot races.

Vote for the candidate of your choice. I will be voting for the candidate of my choice. However it is not reasonable to expect that the results of Iowa or NH to have any significant effect on this race.

[Gothmog]

36. Bernie Sanders can win Iowa and New Hampshire. Then what?

Many people are wondering what Sanders will do after Iowa and New Hampshire http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/16/politics/bernie-sanders-south-carolina-democratic-debate/index.html

But for all the good news for Sanders, he still faces the same electability question: can a Democratic socialist from the second-whitest state in the country win voters that actually look like the rest of the Democratic Party? After Iowa and New Hampshire -- two overwhelmingly white states -- Sanders faces an electorate that is much more diverse and not as familiar with Sanders, especially in the South, which at the moment is Clinton Country.

If he can't expand his base, Sanders can tout all the polls he wants that show him doing better than Clinton in hypothetical head-to-head contests with Republicans, but he won't be the Democratic nominee.

It's an issue he will have to address beginning at Sunday night's Democratic presidential debate in Charleston, South Carolina.

Clinton has been out ahead of Sanders in courting black voters, touting this week an endorsement from Obama's former attorney general, Eric Holder, who said that Clinton is the best candidate to build on Obama's legacy. He will appear with the former secretary of state in an upcoming swing in South Carolina.

Clinton supporters say that her team understands the bloc of voters that drives the overall black vote. "The key demographic that matters is African-American women and Karen Finney and LaDavia Drane and Maya Harris are very much focused on that group," said Bakari Sellers, a former state legislator in South Carolina and CNN contributor, listing Clinton's top aides. "They are going to message and organize and not just win it, but lock it down overwhelmingly."

Sanders is not likely to be the nominee unless he can expand his base. Victories in two states with 90+% white voting populations will not make any difference in the race to be the nominee

[MineralMan]

37. Then there will be additional primaries,

leading up to the convention. There, the delegates will vote, and a nominee will be selected. That's how it works. The early primaries are no more important in that process than the later ones. No worries. The candidate with the most delegates will be the nominee.

[Recursion]

38. As an O'Malley supporter this is pretty much my only hope (nt)