Wow!! Obama leads Mittens by 52-44 in Virginia in Washington Post Poll

[WI_DEM]

President Obama continues to hold a clear lead over Mitt Romney in Virginia, a new Washington Post poll shows, buoyed by enthusiastic support rivaling what he marshaled in 2008 to snap the Democrats’ four-decade losing streak in the state.

Likely voters in the commonwealth favor Obama 52 percent to 44 percent. Among all voters, the president is up 50 percent to 43 percent, identical to his margin in a survey in early May.

Obama’s steady lead suggests that an unprecedented barrage of TV ads and dozens of in-person visits have yet to change the bottom line in the key battleground state.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/dc-politics/post-poll-obama-up-8-points-over-romney-in-virginia/2012/09/18/ca691d9a-0193-11e2-9367-4e1bafb958db_story.html

[greenymac]

1. I sure hope this holds up!

The news keeps getting better and better, but I'm still very nervous of suppressio and tampering.

[BlueToTheBone]

2. Does this helpTim Kaine? n/t

[TroyD]

3. I'd be interested to see what Nate Silver says

This poll seems a bit on the high end for Obama compared to most of the other Virginia olls, so while it's a nice poll, we don't want to assume Virginia is in the bag when it still might be close.

Nevertheless, Virginia seems to have leaned Obama for most of the year, so that appears to be the key trend.

Btw, some of the other polls out today are a little worrying. Obama's lead in Gallup is now down to only +1. And Rasmussen and Gravis are both showing Romney in the lead in a couple of states (eg. Florida, Colorado etc.) Not sure whether those reveal a tightening of the race, or whether they are reverting to a Republican bias.

[WI_DEM]

4. Yes most polls other than Ras or Gravis have shown Obama leading by a fair margin

in Virginia. I don't trust Ras and don't think much of Gravis either. If PPP or NBC Marist, Quinnipiac or one of those more accurate pollsters begins to show a problem for Obama in Virginia then I'll worry.

I also don't obsess about the daily tracking polls they will fluctuate. It's now two weeks since the Democratic Convention (nearly) and Obama had a nice bounce. Things will even out a bit but I believe most polls will have Obama leading. The first debate will be the pivotal one. More people watch the first debate than the other debates and if Obama can put Romney away then I think it is pretty good odds he will be re-elected. Of course GOTV will be crucial as well.

[TroyD]

5. Gravis certainly seems suspect

For example, why does it have Mack ahead of Nelson in Florida today when every other pollster shows Nelson way ahead and when Nate Silver gives Nelson about a 90% chance of winning?

Nevertheless, I'm a bit uneasy with all these threads proclaiming the race is over and that the Republicans are dead & buried.

Romney has actually gone UP over the past week. A lot of that is probably because Obama's convention bounce is ending, as Nate Silver says.

But as long as Obama is only 1-point ahead in Gallup, we can't claim the race is over.