Herding: A Quick Definition
Not a partisan post, but a definition for a word that has begun popping up with regards to polling as we draw nearer to Iowa.
Herding is basically the idea that when one poll shows a significant change in results, other pollsters, out of fear that they missed something, will tailor results to resemble the first poll. Hence, the first poll leads the way and the rest of the "herd" follows.
As for whether it is applicable now, well, considering the disparity of results in the past few weeks, it looks like most pollsters are committed to their methodologies and sticking with them until the end. Disparate results across multiple agencies is a healthy thing in polling, and we're definitely getting a lot of that now. So while seeing two polls released just two days apart have a 35 point difference in spread is insanely frustrating, it is, oddly enough, considered a positive in the industry (They would rather have outliers than agencies cooking numbers to match perceived trends.).
But yeah, it does make for some frustrating times trying to analyze the state of the race(s).
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