Why the enthusiasm gap in Iowa could be a big deal

[cali]

As reported by the NYT today, Hillary hasn't been able to match Bernie's enthusiastic crowds. He has momentum at this point. It makes intuitive sense that enthusiastic supporters will be more geared up to caucus than less enthusiastic ones. A lot can change in 3 weeks, and as reported in the article, Hillary is aggressively going after Bernie, but as of now, I get why her campaign is worried. The headlines if she loses or underperforms in Iowa, would be brutal.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/13/us/politics/hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-supporters.html?_r=0

[thereismore]

1. Commitment cards? WTH? Does Bernie does this too? Anybody know?

"About 300 people welcomed Mrs. Clinton enthusiastically and listened to her diligently, but many of them, still unsure, rebuffed Clinton aides trying to get them to sign “commitment cards” to caucus for her."

[Betty Karlson]

2. Something tells me the Sanders aides are not worried about commitment.

They are too busy welcoming all the new Bernie-voters.

[thereismore]

4. I bet. Look at this comment from somebody in IA:

"Hillary has a real enthusiasm gap problem. People just can't get excited about her. Last fall I attended an annual neighborhood fair and there was a table set up for her campaign. Absolutely no one stopped at her table to talk or sign those silly commitment cards. The two people at sitting there were the loneliest at the fair and I live in a heavily democratic district."

Ouch.

[Betty Karlson]

5. And that was as early as last fall?

Amazing.

[morningfog]

3. But, but, but ... she listens.

[thereismore]

6. From the comment section:

Steve Iowa city

I've been a caucus attendee since 1984 in Iowa. Was the lone delegate in our county for Clinton in 1992 (when our Senator Harkin was running). I had planned on caucusing for Hillary and I did so in 08. I've decided (last week) to support Sanders.

For six months it has appeared that the substantial passion of Sanders supporters, would be difficult for Hillary to win against. I'm now seeing the solidification of a fundamental shift in the calculus folks are doing regarding the caucuses this go around. Three months ago the bottom line in conversations was: Clinton is electable and Sanders is not (and her debate performance substantiated the assets she can bring to the White House). Now some Clinton supporters appear to have concluded she may not be as electable as thought and that the Sanders may have the better chance given the Republican field. So you are seeing Hillary supporters who have all along been enthusiastic about Sanders' message now believing Sanders is potentially the more electable of the two.

At their core caucuses are about persuading your neighbors. And, alliances do in fact reconfigure over the course of the evening until a final count is taken. The key element is always the level of passion a person has for the candidate. I believe Sanders will win big in Polk, Johnson, Black Hawk, Story, Scott and Linn counties, the most populated counties, and that sanders will have a much stronger showing in the more rural counties than anticipated.

[cali]

7. Very interesting.

[loyalsister]

8. I saw a few caucusers in action last weekend

They are passionate! Some I talked with switched from Hillary to Bernie after she skipped an event organized by grassroots activists. A staffer out of another state quit.

[thereismore]

9. Good stuff from the field. Thanks. nt