Inexplicable Shifts: I never trust these sudden change in political/media narratives and zeitgeist

[Armstead]

(Disclaimer. I'm a Sanders supporter, and am happy to see him finally being taken seriously, and connecting with voters. But the syndrome I mention below has been an irritating craw for a long time, regardless of specific campaigns and candidates.)

As recently as a week or two ago, the narrative and "conventional wisdom" was that Clinton was the assumed nominee. Bernie was either not mentioned, or added as a small aside. The primary was just a ritual, like punching a ticket for the main event.

"The big question for the Republicans is how their nominee will compete against Clinton."

"The Democrats are preparing for the race between Clinton and Trump."

"Clinton has a prohibitive lead and Bernie has faltered."

and endless variations of that theme.

But suddenly, we wake up one morning and "It's a tight race!" ......"Bernie is surging!"......"Clinton is in trouble!"....."The campaign is getting heated!!"

What suddenly changed?

Was there some strange meteorological phenomenon that changed everyone's mind simultaneously? Did a comet pass too close to the earth?......Was there a horrible scandal unearthed? Did a candidate say something so monumentally stupid and embarrassing that they totally screwed the pooch? Did some crisis or event in the news cause everyone to change priorities?

Nahhhh. A few polls showed a few races getting closer, or some variation in the patterns.

IMO, it's bullshit. Smoke and mirrors. The media's desire for horseraces. (Maybe Trump is temporarily boring.) It's similar to earlier in the campaigns when Bernie was "surging" and Hillary was "on the ropes." And then, suddenly Clinton made an "amazing comeback", and Bernie was consigned to media oblivion.

What's happening is simply that the dynamics of a campaign are shifting constantly and moving forward, and nobody -- nobody -- knows where that will line up during the hours that people actually vote in the upcoming primaries....

The reality is that Bernie, Clinton and Martin O are doing what they've been doing all along. They've been pushing the same respective messages they've been pushing all along. ....Their campaigns and supporters are working as hard as ever. The fortunes of candidates have zigged and zagged and gone up and down and back again. Die hard supporters are maintaining their enthusiasm, and a lot of undecideds are still scratching their heads trying to make a decision.

I'm not saying there aren't legitimate trends and patterns to be analyzed, and changes in momentum.

But these sudden dramatic changes in the official narrative are just forests and trees. It's amazing -- and dishonest -- when the pundits, politicians and analysis all change their tune so much overnight.

In an ideal world, everyone would just shut up about the horse race, let the candidates state their case, let people decide on their own and see how it shakes out in the end. I know...that's a pony and unicorn. But one can dream.

Just wanted to vent and get that off my chest.

[1StrongBlackMan]

1. Could it be ...

that the media needs a horse race to attract the advertising dollars?

[Armstead]

2. Yep. That's a lot of it.

Maybe they decided Trump is temporarily boring, and they need different grist for the mill.

[elleng]

3. NO DOUBT,

no 'Could it be . . .'

[1StrongBlackMan]

4. So ... When does Martin get his turn? ...

I predict that if he hits +10% in, both Iowa and N.H., he will be the media's flavor of the week. Why have a 2 way horse race when you can have a three-way?

[elleng]

5. Mebbe.

8% in Iowa = http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_11216.pdf

The trend is GOOD.

[JustAnotherGen]

7. I keep going back to 1992

I think Clinton Takes Iowa.
Sanders takes NH.

Then Martin could rise. But elleng is right - 8%.

I tend to believe that number. I actually wish it was lower in Iowa.

[Ed Suspicious]

26. Very soon. I've been thinking we would see an O'Malley surge for a little while now. His warm

reception at the Brown and Black Forum is likely the start of a change in the relevance of O'Malley as inferred by the MSM.

[persuadable]

18. For Most People, politics is a sport

[1StrongBlackMan]

29. And why not? ...

Politics is a sport ... a high stakes game, with real effects, affecting real people; but, a game, none the less.

[Mass]

6. Incompetent media and need for entertainment.

I have stopped listening to the 2016 primaries coverage because 99 % is just BS and repeating the same thing again and again.

This said, great if Bernie Sanders gets part of it and not just Trump. I guess they have decided the GOP race was a done deal and they need new news.

[JustAnotherGen]

8. Great OP Armstead

proud to rec this.

Media is always up to something. I'm still much more willing to take shots at Trump, Cruz, right wing domestic terrorists, etc. etc. than I am any of the three candidates we have. The media wants the infighting for some reason.

[Tom Rinaldo]

9. This time though I don't fully agree

Yes the media always needs an inane but addictive way to cover American politics without having to actually dive into the complexity of covering actual issues. Elections as horse races fills that bill well for them, no doubt about it. But the Donald has given them something possibly better, an endless supply of empty calories diversion. He's become he Howard Stern of politics, the shock jock of the presidential primaries. That well hasn't run dry yet and the media has had an ongoing fixation with everything Clinton for decades now - no let up in sight there either. I think the media was more or less OK with building up toward "A clash of the NY Titans" in 2016 - leaving Bernie out of it.

I think what changed in he media coverage is the same thing that changed in the Clinton campaign focus; it has stopped working, to the point of being counterproductive, to continue to ignore Bernie Sanders. I think the media is following Hillary's lead and her pivot toward, and against in her case at least, Sanders. Maybe they are afraid of being totally exposed as missing the boat, maybe they, like Hillary herself, now realize that Sanders is not getting any weaker while left in a media vacuum, or maybe, closer to your view, the Democratic race has simply gotten more entertaining now that Hillary is throwing punches at Sanders rather than brushing Bernie off to concentrate on Trump.

[Armstead]

11. There is a lot of backpeddling going on -- But it's the suddeness and uniformity that bugs me

I've been frustrated all along with the dismissive attitude towards Sanders and the downplayi9ng of his candidacy. He should have been portrayed as on a level playing field all along.

I also think O'Malley has gotten a raw deal in terms of coverage.

So, yeah, I'm glad to see that starting to change. But I'd rather see the media being consistently honest and responsible than stroking my own biases or doing the opposite based on who they decide is Flavor of the Day.

But, as I noted in the OP, I'm just venting. I realize expecting well-paid, highly educated and smart journalists and corporate approved analysts to act like ethical thinking adults is an impossible dream.

[Tom Rinaldo]

19. I understand your pent up frustration - and share it

Some calculation has taken place and we are left to guess what. If our nation can't even pull off thoughtful consistent coverage of our most important elections, what kind of democracy are we left with?

[demwing]

10. Bernie is an overnight success

(30 years in the making!)

None of this happened overnight, though with public opinion polls, it might seem that way.

Bernie's success in these two states was planned, and the trend lines show his progress to goal. It's far from over, but it's also far from sudden.

[magical thyme]

12. It wasn't inexplicable, and not as sudden as it appears

The poll numbers started to shift right around Christmas and New Years (same timing, btw, as the '08 shift to Obama) -- Hillary's team putting out emails suggesting they could lose IA or NH and asking for $1.00 donations. I think their internal polling and Bernie's Q4 donation numbers were making them very nervous.

Then their plan to bring out the big guns with Big Dawg got derailed when Hillary foolishly attacked Trump as sexist, triggering Trump point at Big Dawg's sexual history and bring us back to the scandal-ridden 90s.

I think Trump's attack got under Hillary's skin. There has been a marked change in her tone and appearance since Trump's attack. And ignoring Bernie -- both Hillary and the media -- has enabled him to just keep doing what he's doing, under the radar.

The Planned Parenthood endorsement backfired, reminding people of the rampant cronyism.

Bernie's speech in NYC was a major groundshifting moment, imo. Until then, the msm gave him short shrift. I saw article after article in response to that speech in all the major rags. I posted at least a half dozen at another board -- NY Times, WSJ, WP, USA Today, MSNBC, CNN -- everybody covered it in spades.

So the ground may have shifted quickly, but the underlying stresses were building for several weeks.

[Beacool]

13. They are vultures who would sell their own mother for a headline.

The media drummed up the Hillary "inevitability" meme, just like they did in 2008, only to attack her for faltering. It brings drama to a race that had hummed along in a predictable way for many months. The only drama was on the Republican side. They now see the race in the two initial states as close and they pounced trying to get their pound of flesh.

Journalists used to report the news and kept their personal comments to themselves. They have now become pundits and part of the news.

[SDJay]

23. Their Job Used To Be

to report facts objectively. Now they need to do whatever is necessary to get clicks and views so that revenue stays where it should be and share prices don't drop.

For-profit media. Dumbing down the population for over a generation now.

[leftofcool]

14. I think you nailed it and you are right except for one thing.............

Trump is not temporarily boring, he will be boring until he dies!

[Armstead]

21. LOL....Hopefully the media and viewers and vothers will feel the same way and cancel this TV series

[ram2008]

15. Christmas primary + Trump

Democrats see Republicans possibly nominating someone who brings out thousands of people, isn't afraid to say what he believes, and speaks to their values (as horrible as they are). The Media said he had zero chance, and look at that he's in first place.

This has caused other Dems to say wait, if Republicans can do it, why can't we? We don't really need to nominate Hillary, there's an actual choice, and we too can vote with our hearts rather than who the media says. And we can vote for someone who brings energy to the race.

There's that factor and the holiday season, where I imagine, going by my family dinner, the party was divided by tepid, apolitical Hillary supporters, normally apolitical but newly political Trump supporters, and strong Bernie supporters who know the issues. It's very easy to convert the apolitical, Hillary supporter types when you explain where Bernie stands and how he has been consistent through the years. The biggest hurdle is "But socialism" To which I reply he can call himself a banana if he wants, but that doesn't change the fact that I agree with him on all the issues and he's right.

[artislife]

30. I like this.

I have clients in their 70s who have a chew toy for their dog called The Republican so they are dye in the wool Dems. They are all day CNN watchers and really wanted Biden. I have had a few conversations that I am going to caucus for Bernie. They have talked about his ineligibility in the past. Yesterday, the said that Bernie was doing really well, with a sense of hope in their voices. The woman said she was going to write in Biden on her ballot (WA has mail in ballots). I told her she should do that in the caucus. She said she has always been luke warm on Hillary.


I will get her the info on the precinct in her area, we caucus late March. Before then, I will let her know that she may jeopardize her entire ballot by writing in a non contender in the general. Not sure if that holds true in WA, so I want to look it up first.


But I don't think h has a a deep loyal support group. Sure there are those who love her and fight for her, but others that support her because she is the only one they know and feel could win.

[bvar22]

16. One small problem with the OP:

You said:
"The reality is that Bernie, Clinton and Martin O are doing what they've been doing all along. They've been pushing the same respective messages they've been pushing all along."

That statement would be true if you had left out Hillary.
She has "evolved" on major issues so many times over the last few years her supporters have gotten dizzy trying to keep up with all her whirling and backtracking.

[Ron Green]

17. The media are caught on the horns of a dilemma:

They need the "horse race" that Bernie's ascendancy gives them, but they aren't able to cover actual issues, which Bernie's candidacy demands. They long ago abandoned this expensive and laborious infrastructure to make more money in the entertainment world.

Another reason why ANY thinking person ought to strongly support Bernie: The "political revolution" he's calling for will require a journalism Renaissance in this country, and that's long overdue.

[HereSince1628]

20. Well several things happened, it does have to do with media coverage.

This is possible to justify because with the new year, we are looking at ~4 weeks to the first primary and caucus. The publ;ic is paying more attention to the process and the polls are more interested in what the overall population is thinking, rather than what the registered political junkies are thinking.

The media sells what it thinks its customers want. With the change of year, their impression is even the average Jane wants broader and more coverage of the presidential nomination process.

On the polling side, there is now somewhat more of a shift away from using registered voters with various previous experience to polling that is more about likely voters. People registered or not can tell pollster with some greater accuracy if they intend to vote and who for. All along it's been assumed that party stalwarts would vote for the nominee of their party. Now the polling can reach others.

Polls based on experience and registered democrats voters have favored Clinton, The shift to polling voters who will likely participate in dem caucuses and primaries levels that out a bit, and depending on the polls includes new voters and independents, and that combination is more favorable to Sanders.

So with that change of perspective, things suddenly look different, even though they haven't much changed. But the new polling certainly creates a new picture which the 'band-wagoneers' and the 'me too'ers' will react to.

[MisterP]

22. bandwagon effect--they wanna pretend they were his BUDDIES all along

[Skwmom]

24. It is obvious that something is up.

Mika on Morning Joe has long been a Biden supporter. Now she is pushing Bernie. This morning she said it was because she watched 10 hours coverage of Bernie. Really? If you believe that I have a bridge to sell you in the Sahara Desert.

My guess: They are worried and want to knock Clinton out of the game so they can bring in another corporate puppet. I wondered if this was just another game with the 3 Amigos (Obama, Biden and Clinton) to have Clinton pull another so-called orchestrated comeback but the faces on some of the Democrats last night at the SOTU leads me to believe there is unhappiness within the Democratic Establishment World.

I think Biden has always been waiting in the wings. I read a while back that James Clyburn told him not to enter the race UNLESS he could be viewed as saving the party. Saving the party from what - someone that is not a corporate owned tool?

[Art_from_Ark]

25. Saving the party

More like saving their own butts. They're afraid that Sanders is going to chase out the weasels who have taken over Toad Hall.

[-none]

27. Hillary was supposed to be the picked shoo-in.

Sanders, just another also ran. Then Moving On and another respected organization did their own poll and Sanders all but owned the whole dance floor in both. Suddenly Sanders could not be ignored. It would raise way too many questions come election time.
Now the powers that be are scrambling to come up with a plan B. Bernie Sanders is too much of a danger to the 1% money train status quo. In other words our owners are panicking.

[MoonRiver]

28. Thanks for this thoughtful analysis.

The media, and it's constant polling, plays us like a fiddle. Remember when people were entertained by READING, not watching tv or tweeting?