The gap in Michigan may be closing

[bernbabe]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_democratic_presidential_primary-5224.html

IMO this is a very, very important state coming up. If Bernie can win there it would be a very good sign, if he loses he can't lose by much, it has to be close.

[Dont call me Shirley]

1. Bernie will win the Midwest and the West.

[HereSince1628]

4. I see a win in WI but that isn't til April.

Wondering where you are seeing the wins?

[Dont call me Shirley]

5. Current momentum.

[BillZBubb]

2. Michigan is really important. Bernie needs to win it.

Michigan is the type of state where Bernie's economic message should resonate. If he can't win there, his path to a majority of delegates is really hard to see.

The real problem is that Hillary, despite all her many flaws and loads of negative baggage, is still seen by too many Democrats as the most likely to win the general election. A lot of people vote for her primarily based on that.

[cantbeserious]

3. Tragically - All Too True

eom

[bernbabe]

6. Michigan is an open primary

which should help him, he seems to do well with independents.

[BillZBubb]

8. I hope so. An upset there would be really really big.

[Nyan]

7. The polling data after IW and NH have been so inaccurate.

NV -Bernie was up by 2% right before the caucus day. And then he loses by 5%.
KS -He was losing by 10% about two weeks before the caucus day, and he wins by something like 35%.

I mean, WTF? How can they be so off?
I don't know if I can trust Michigan polling data as well -whether it's favorable to Bernie or not I wouldn't know.

[kath]

9. And in OK, a poll that came out the day before the primary had HRH up by 9 - Bernie won by 10.5%!

[Kalidurga]

10. I believe the gap is closing

I don't believe this is a must win state. None of the states are must wins. It's about who has the most delegates going into the convention. So, does he need to do well yes. Can he lose by more than 10 points, yes. Can he get hammered like in LA? No that would actually be bad. And no Michigan is not a bell weather for the Midwest. Michigan is a very conservative state, they vote pretty close to what southern states vote.