Why Sanders Could Repeat His Big Michigan Upset In Ohio

[cal04]

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/sanders-clinton-michigan-ohio

Bernie Sanders’ upset victory in Michigan was a major shock for Hillary Clinton supporters for many reasons -- not the least of which was the prior polling that showed her beating Sander by 20-plus percentage points.

But the perils of public primary polling aside, Sanders’ Michigan win suggests it’s too soon to write the Democratic socialist and his message of political revolution off. Next Tuesday’s Ohio primary will be the next major test for him to prove he has broadened his appeal and there, his attacks on her stance on trade deals may prove equally effective as they were in Michigan.

Michigan’s neighbor to the south shares its industrial heritage, bears a similar demographic mix, and even the geography of Ohio Democratic voters resembles Michigan's. Ohio presents the same sort of electoral conditions as Michigan, and those conditions could prove just as receptive to Sanders’ criticism of trade deals.

“It has a lot of the same industry and it has a lot of the same feel of jobs being outsourced, and good jobs going away,” Michael Parkin, an associate professor of politics at Oberlin College, told TPM.

[salinsky]

1. So, he'll split the delegates with her again? ...

... hard to catch up that way.

Meh.

[Bluenorthwest]

2. Bernie got 65 Michigan delegates, Hillary got 58. That's not a split. 6% delegate advantage Bernie.

It's 'the math' remember?

[mopinko]

3. illinois might be a surprise, too.

with mini-trump at the helm here, i think a lot of slow bubbling anger may just surface.

[TBF]

4. Same issues - all of the Midwestern states' manufacturing

was decimated by NAFTA. So many older workers - did they even bother re-training or moving these folks? Of course not. Just moved the factories overseas and the people were left to their own devices. Bill Clinton signed NAFTA and Hillary was a vocal proponent. The people in these states remember it and I wouldn't be surprised to see them reject Hillary just as Michigan did. Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Wisconsin.

[SamKnause]

5. This Buckeye hopes Ohio pulls a Michigan.

I will be doing my part on the 15th.